How is Bangladesh handling the Ukraine crisis?

Supply chains disrupted, sanctions imposed, millions of Ukrainians displaced and thousands killed since 24 February, on top of major upheavals in the financial markets and global geopolitics that continue to keep many awake.

This is not something someone could have predicted just two years ago when the world shut down into the abyss of the Covid-19 pandemic. But yet here we are, at a fresh hell.

Tensions have, to some degree, eased with the Ukrainian president Zelenskyy officially announcing his intention to meet one of the primary demands made by Russia's Vladimir Putin – not joining NATO and Russia promising to scale down "operations".

But it is still anyone's guess when things will go back to normal (whatever we think 'normal' to be at this point); when it happens, what will the world look like.

The divisions are clear – the West versus Russia, Nato and its allies versus Russia – and it is leaving everyone else on a tightrope, working out the next course of action keeping in mind one's national interests. We are, perhaps, all living out a critical balancing act. 

For Bangladesh, its foreign policy is telling from its abstention in the first UN General Assembly vote for Ukrainian resolution to its voting in favour at the second UNGA resolution. And whether Bangladesh will consider seeking alternative payment methods to sustain its trade with Russia remains a pressing issue.     

For, how third parties respond to the crisis has implications for them.

For instance, just recently, a spokesperson from the US State Department said, "We continue to engage our partners in India and around the world on the importance of a strong collective action, including strong sanctions, to press the Kremlin to end its devastating war of choice against Ukraine as soon as possible."  

The 'warning' came as a response to talks between Russia and India concerning the purchase of oil and seeking alternative methods of payment systems.

In the meantime, Pakistan might be the first casualty of US's backlash. Imran Khan, Pakistani prime minister, is facing a no-confidence vote on 3 April. His party blames a "foreign government" to overthrow his government, in an apparent slip of the tongue, named the US to be behind the conspiracy.

It should be noted here that the premier of Pakistan visited Russia in the early days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine - which was scheduled beforehand. There has been a growing distance between Washington and Islamabad, and time will tell whether there will be any wider implications.

In this backdrop, here is what some experts in the field say about how Bangladesh is handling the crisis.

UNGA votes

Since the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, two UN General Assembly votes – consisting of 193 members – took place on 2 March and then again on 25 March.   

While Bangladesh, including India and China and some others, abstained on 2 March, Bangladesh voted in favour of the Ukrainian resolution 23 days later.

"There hasn't been any change in [Bangladesh's] policy really," said Shahab Enam Khan, a professor of International Relations at Jahangirnagar University, "these two resolutions are basically different things."

According to the professor, before jumping to a conclusion, it is vital to understand the core nature of the resolutions that were put forward. The first resolution was primarily based on reprimanding Russia and calling for an immediate end to the invasion.

"There was a geopolitical and geostrategic component to it," said Khan.

However, the second vote called for providing humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.  

Nusmila Lohani. Illustration: TBS

Voting in support of "welfare of the civilians complies with Bangladesh's constitution Article no. 25 and values," added Khan, "Bangladesh values humanitarian assistance. The country hosts a huge [displaced Rohingya] population from Myanmar."

Among the 193 member states, 35 abstained on 25 March, including China and India, two major economies and powers. Unlike Bangladesh, it can be deduced that China and India have more at stake. "India's relationship with Russia is complex and vast," said Khan, which can explain why they [India] chose to abstain yet again.

"At the end of the day, Ukrainians and Russians have to sit together," said Imtiaz Ahmed, professor of International Relations at the University of Dhaka, "regardless of how much we plan [in moving forward] or discuss [the invasion]," it comes down to the two parties sitting down to negotiate and resolve the conflict at hand.

"And I believe that is more of a pressing issue than discussing anything else," added Ahmed.

This much is clear that "both India and China are not with the United States," said Ahmed. The two countries' abstention in both the UN voting for the Ukrainian resolution is quite remarkable. After abstaining from the [25 March] vote, India said they are providing humanitarian assistance in Ukraine, pointed out Professor Ahmed, adding that Bangladesh does not have much to worry about, "given India's abstention."

Bangladesh's voting in two UN Ukraine resolutions is indicative that the government is taking the right measures in handling the Russia-Ukraine war, according to Professor Imtiaz Ahmed. "Bangladesh has acted smartly" in the face of the crisis, he said.

According to Ahmed, the world is moving toward becoming a multipolar one, and this is reflective of how this crisis differs from the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks/crises. "Even with Bangladesh voting in favour, the resolution [on 25 March] secured 140 yes votes," he said, adding, "these UN resolutions do not really measure too much anyway."

But it is important to observe and evaluate, from the geopolitical lens, how the world at large is responding to the West and its allies' stance on Russia and keep reevaluating it.

A power plant and hefty trade volume

One of the main, if not the most vital, points of concern for Bangladesh in relation to Russia is the country's Rooppur Power Plant. Russian Ambassador to Bangladesh, Alexander Mantytskiy, recently assured that operations would continue unaffected.
"If the West sets out to put sanctions on countries who have existing contracts or projects underway in partnership with Russia, then they would have to sanction the whole world," explained Ahmed, "I do not think the project's operations will be affected by the crisis at hand, we are yet to reach such a stage."

Russia is also a market for Bangladesh's ready-made garment (RMG) products. In FY2021, Bangladesh's export to Russia was $550 million, and its import from Russia was $480 million.

If the war is prolonged and Russia faces more intensified sanctions, "yes, RMG trade will be affected, but it is difficult to evaluate to what extent," said Rumana Hoque, professor of Economics a Dhaka University, "I do not think the impact will measure into extreme proportions that will create a vacuum of loss. We can recover from it [this particular loss in trade]."

Should we barter or seek alternative methods?

Moreover, India and China (and some others) are seeking ways to continue trade with Russia by bypassing Russia's ban from the SWIFT payment system – an international payment system.

On 14 March, in a report to the commerce ministry, the Bangladesh embassy in Moscow suggested a barter with Russia that the government exports medicines and potatoes to Russia in exchange for importing food grains, such as wheat, fertilisers and edible oil through government-to-government bartering or currency swap.

"This is not a normal situation," said Dr Ahsan H Mansur, the Executive Director of the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh, and if Bangladesh chooses to take up alternate methods, "we may [face] secondary sanctions for our companies or on our government for doing something that is banned by the West."

Mansur also pointed out how Iran was met with sanctions, for their actions to bypass the SWIFT ban on Russia. "Look, there are two kinds of compliance, involuntary and voluntary," said Mansur, "many countries have voluntarily complied with the sanctions," while many had to comply involuntarily.

Can Russia be totally isolated with other countries completely cutting off ties and relationships? Most likely not.

One of the noteworthy developments since the beginning of the war is that the Western countries and their allies posed no or limited restrictions on the trade of food and energy products (oil and gas) with Russia.

This is indicative of the world's dependence on Russia, noted the policy expert. Speaking on the possible fate for Russia at the end of this war, Mansur reiterated the narrative posed by major Western media that Russia's economy will be forced to downsize – as a result of the continuing economic sanctions.

However, there lies a silver lining, according to Mansur. With sanctions imposed on Russian energy products, the global market has to look at ways to cut back on its reliance on Russia – and by doing so, a shift to green energy, perhaps, might be in the offing.

"We have asked our government to impose carbon tax many times," said Mansur, but to no avail. "Now [the price of] carbon tax is lower than that of sanctioned energy products," he added.

"This can be Putin's gift to the world," Mansur quipped, "forcing the world to shift to green energy."