The next summer of the new year will be very challenging for Bangladesh in terms of supplying the required demand of power and energy.
It would have been a big relief if 2000MW of more power generation capacity could be added to the national grid.
But it seems unlikely that the second unit of Rampal and Adani will be able to supply electricity by next summer.
It is really saddening that Rampal coal power project is still not completed while Payra coal power plant is completed and will come into operation within three and half years.
Energy supply, especially gas, would hit hard during the summer demand. To meet the demand, local gas supply needs to be around 2300 million cubic feet (mmcf) per day. But, it is uncertain whether Petrobangla would be able to keep that production, though it has added around 45mmcf additional supply in the running year from marginal wells.
Besides these, to face the pressure of summer, Petrobangla should manage 500mmcf Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from another longer contract and 100mmcf from the spot market.
But, the import of LNG and coal would totally determine the country's financial situation, rate of US dollar against Taka, fuel price in the global market and Russia-Ukraine war.
The first phase of the International Monetary Fund's debt, however, could be an advantage for the government in meeting the fuel import cost.
In addition, the price of LNG seems to have started to go down, so is the price of coal. But, most economists and energy experts still think that the energy—LNG, Coal and oil prices will decrease more by 2024.
Overall, next summer is a major challenge for Bangladesh.
TBS Correspondent Eyamin Sajid talked with Professor Dr Mohammad Tamim