Can Hong Kong Avoid Tragedy?
Skip to main content
  • Home
  • Economy
    • Aviation
    • Bazaar
    • Budget
    • Industry
    • NBR
    • RMG
    • Corporates
  • Stocks
  • Analysis
  • World+Biz
  • Sports
  • Features
    • Book Review
    • Brands
    • Earth
    • Explorer
    • Fact Check
    • Family
    • Food
    • Game Reviews
    • Good Practices
    • Habitat
    • Humour
    • In Focus
    • Luxury
    • Mode
    • Panorama
    • Pursuit
    • Wealth
    • Wellbeing
    • Wheels
  • Epaper
  • More
    • Subscribe
    • Videos
    • Thoughts
    • Splash
    • Bangladesh
    • Supplement
    • Infograph
    • Archive
    • COVID-19
    • Games
    • Long Read
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Podcast
    • Quiz
    • Tech
    • Trial By Trivia
    • Magazine
  • বাংলা
The Business Standard

Wednesday
February 08, 2023

Sign In
Subscribe
  • Home
  • Economy
    • Aviation
    • Bazaar
    • Budget
    • Industry
    • NBR
    • RMG
    • Corporates
  • Stocks
  • Analysis
  • World+Biz
  • Sports
  • Features
    • Book Review
    • Brands
    • Earth
    • Explorer
    • Fact Check
    • Family
    • Food
    • Game Reviews
    • Good Practices
    • Habitat
    • Humour
    • In Focus
    • Luxury
    • Mode
    • Panorama
    • Pursuit
    • Wealth
    • Wellbeing
    • Wheels
  • Epaper
  • More
    • Subscribe
    • Videos
    • Thoughts
    • Splash
    • Bangladesh
    • Supplement
    • Infograph
    • Archive
    • COVID-19
    • Games
    • Long Read
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Podcast
    • Quiz
    • Tech
    • Trial By Trivia
    • Magazine
  • বাংলা
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 08, 2023
Can Hong Kong Avoid Tragedy?

World+Biz

Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng
29 November, 2019, 02:55 pm
Last modified: 29 November, 2019, 03:05 pm

Related News

  • China to fully resume travel with Hong Kong, Macau on 6 Feb
  • Hong Kong will give away half a million plane tickets. Here’s who can get them first
  • Asian shares scale fresh 7-month high as Hong Kong trade resumes
  • China, Hong Kong resume high-speed rail link after 3 years of Covid curbs
  • China appoints new Hong Kong liaison office chief

Can Hong Kong Avoid Tragedy?

To protect their own futures, the people of Hong Kong must reflect carefully on the need to end violent protests and work together to address genuine grievances. The alternative is not some fantasy of an independent and thriving Hong Kong. It is a devastated economy, a divided society, and a lost generation.

Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng
29 November, 2019, 02:55 pm
Last modified: 29 November, 2019, 03:05 pm
Can Hong Kong Avoid Tragedy?

Nearly six months after they began, the protests in our city have reached fever pitch. On one particularly devastating day earlier this month, police fired more than 1,500 rounds of tear gas, a police officer shot a demonstrator at point-blank range while being attacked, and protesters immolated a man who disagreed with them. More than 4,000 people have been arrested, infrastructure has been destroyed, and the economy has sunk into recession. And for what?

Hong Kong's government withdrew the extradition bill that triggered the protests. Yet the protesters rage on, lacking any coherent strategy or demands. They claim that they are fighting for democracy, but it is hard to reconcile that lofty goal with medieval-style catapults launching bricks and firebombs. In truth, the protesters' scorched-earth strategy can lead only to more chaos, destruction, and death.

It does not have to be this way. To help find a solution, we have conducted a PEST (political, economic, sociocultural, and technological) analysis of Hong Kong's current situation and future prospects.

On the political front, the main lesson is that it is up to the government to ensure order and security. Within the "one country, two systems" framework, Hong Kong's own government has powers to address internal security matters. But where its actions are inadequate, it is the right and responsibility of China's central government to intervene. By allowing peaceful demonstrations to escalate into large-scale riots, Hong Kong's protesters have made such intervention unavoidable.

Economically, Hong Kong is paying a high price for the protracted protests. In July-September, the city's GDP shrank by 3.2% quarter on quarter – the worst economic performance since the 2008 global financial crisis.

Yet all is not lost, as the city's stock market continues to function. Alibaba – China's largest e-commerce company, which holds the world record for the largest initial public offering – has followed through on its plan for a secondary listing in Hong Kong, where it is on track to raise nearly $13 billion.

For most of the last two decades, IPOs in Hong Kong have raised more than those in the United States or mainland China. The market capitalization of all listed companies in Hong Kong amounts to about half that of the mainland. Hong Kong is also an essential platform for China's management of offshore financial assets, and a critical link to global supply chains, with about 60% of China's inflows of foreign direct investment channeled through the city.

Yet these economic advantages have had unintended social consequences, driving the city's highest level of inequality in 45 years. As in many Western economies, while property owners, developers, and elite professionals amass wealth, Hong Kong's lower-middle-class workers have faced stagnating incomes and surging housing prices. The resulting frustration is at the root of the current upheaval.

Persistent governance failures aggravated public sentiment further. In the face of massive social, geopolitical, and technological disruptions, Hong Kong's government needed to adopt proactive policies that could both respond to new developments and anticipate future challenges – beginning with the lack of affordable housing. But it remained committed to the outdated colonial-era principle of "positive non-interventionism," so the problems festered, and popular anger grew.

That anger found a home on social media.

Technology shook the foundations of the "one country, two systems" arrangement by facilitating "information disorder": the spread of overwhelming volumes of biased, misleading, and outright false information, often designed to stoke anti-China sentiment in Hong Kong. The formation of filter bubbles and echo chambers compounded the problem, inundating young people with the message that mainland China was to blame for their every woe.

When these ideas began to be translated into action, protesters used social media to organize, document, and spread awareness of their activities, often anonymously. For both the demonstrators and their opponents, social media have been a crucial means of shaping the narrative, enabling them to share images of, say, police brutality or protester violence.

But social media are a weapon as well as a battleground. In August alone, more than 1,600 police officers and their family members were victimized by "doxxing" – the publication of private information online, in order to invite harassment or worse. In some cases, even the addresses of children's schools were shared. (Some journalists and opposition figures have also been doxxed.)

Despite these provocations, Hong Kong's police have shown considerable restraint. Yes, two people have died in the chaos. But compare that to the 22 protesters who were killed in just two weeks of demonstrations in Santiago, Chile, or the more than 100 who were killed during recent protests in Iran.

If protesters in the US or France were rioting for six months, the government would send in the national guard to quell the unrest. Yet China has exercised strategic patience, recognizing that direct intervention could help those who seek to paint the conflict as a "clash of civilizations," especially at a time when China is locked in a complex trade and strategic rivalry with the US.

But the longer the violence persists, the fewer options for all. Indeed, the latest district council election, with a turnout rate of 71.2%, showed that people voted peacefully for change. If the protesters had avoided violence and opted to wait patiently to express their preferences at the ballot box, the same message could have been sent. The election result is an opportunity for all to reflect carefully on the need to end violent protests and work together to address genuine grievances. All sides must show empathy, humility, and a willingness to compromise as they design and implement governance reforms that are consistent with Hong Kong's Basic Law and China's constitution.

The alternative is not some fantasy of an independent and thriving Hong Kong. It is a devastated economy, a divided society, and a lost generation. Pretending otherwise will only make that outcome more difficult to avoid.

Andrew Sheng is Distinguished Fellow of the Asia Global Institute at the University of Hong Kong and a member of the UNEP Advisory Council on Sustainable Finance. Xiao Geng, President of the Hong Kong Institution for International Finance, is a professor and Director of the Research Institute of Maritime Silk-Road at Peking University HSBC Business School.

Top News

hong kong

Comments

While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderation decisions are subjective. Published comments are readers’ own views and The Business Standard does not endorse any of the readers’ comments.

Top Stories

  • Photo: PID
    LNG import on track to support power generation, PM tells JS
  • Rescuers look on as they sit on rubble, following an earthquake in Hatay Province, Turkey, February 7, 2023. REUTERS/Umit Bektas
    Turkey-Syria earthquake: Clock ticking for untold numbers buried under rubble, death toll crosses 11,416
  • Mixed reactions as diploma made mandatory for promotion of bankers
    Mixed reactions as diploma made mandatory for promotion of bankers

MOST VIEWED

  • Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak meet outside Number 10 Downing Street in London, Britain, February 8, 2023. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls
    Britain steps up military backing for Ukraine as Zelenskiy visits London
  • Gautam Adani. Photo: Bloomberg
    Adani's London connection under scrutiny as UK watchdog launches probe: Report
  • Damaged buildings and rescue operations are seen in the aftermath of the earthquake, in Aleppo, Syria February 7, 2023, in this screen grab taken from a social media video. White Helmets/Handout via REUTERS
    Nearly 300,000 displaced by Syria quake - state media
  • FILE PHOTO: Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (not pictured) via phone line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine January 25, 2023. Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo
    Ukraine's Zelenskiy: will keep pushing to get planes from allies
  • FILE PHOTO-Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Head of the Republic of Bashkortostan Radiy Khabirov in Ufa, Russia January 13, 2023. Sputnik/Sergey Bobylev/Pool via REUTERS
    Putin approved supply of missiles that shot down MH17 in 2014, investigators say
  • FILE PHOTO: The Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, faces the altar during a service at Westminster Abbey in London, Britain November 24, 2015. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls
    Church of England explores gender neutral God

Related News

  • China to fully resume travel with Hong Kong, Macau on 6 Feb
  • Hong Kong will give away half a million plane tickets. Here’s who can get them first
  • Asian shares scale fresh 7-month high as Hong Kong trade resumes
  • China, Hong Kong resume high-speed rail link after 3 years of Covid curbs
  • China appoints new Hong Kong liaison office chief

Features

Illustration: TBS

Planning to study abroad? Explore these four underrated scholarships

12h | Pursuit
Representational image. Photo: Collected.

The understated perks of journaling

12h | Pursuit
Photo: Reuters

A tragedy that will also shake up the region's geopolitics

1d | Panorama
Nimah designed by Compass Architects- Wooden tiles. Photo: Junaid Hasan Pranto

Trendy flooring designs to upgrade any space

1d | Habitat

More Videos from TBS

Unknown facts about Sid-Kiara wedding

Unknown facts about Sid-Kiara wedding

6h | TBS Entertainment
Rescuers dig through rubble as death toll passes 9,000

Rescuers dig through rubble as death toll passes 9,000

6h | TBS World
30% companies see double-digit growth even in hard times

30% companies see double-digit growth even in hard times

1d | TBS Insight
Challenging time waiting for RMG

Challenging time waiting for RMG

1d | TBS Round Table

Most Read

1
Photo: Courtesy
Panorama

From 'Made in Bangladesh' to 'Designed in Bangladesh'

2
Master plan for futuristic Chattogram city in the making
Districts

Master plan for futuristic Chattogram city in the making

3
Photo: Collected
Crime

Prime Distribution MD Mamun arrested in fraud case

4
Leepu realised his love for cars from a young age and for the last 40 years, he has transformed, designed and customised hundreds of cars. Photo: Collected
Panorama

'I am not crazy about cars anymore': Nizamuddin Awlia Leepu

5
Photo: Collected
Startups

ShopUp secures $30m debt financing to boost expansion, supply chain

6
ICB to withdraw Padma Bank investment as return eludes
Banking

ICB to withdraw Padma Bank investment as return eludes

EMAIL US
[email protected]
FOLLOW US
WHATSAPP
+880 1847416158
The Business Standard
  • About Us
  • Contact us
  • Sitemap
  • Privacy Policy
  • Comment Policy
Copyright © 2023
The Business Standard All rights reserved
Technical Partner: RSI Lab

Contact Us

The Business Standard

Main Office -4/A, Eskaton Garden, Dhaka- 1000

Phone: +8801847 416158 - 59

Send Opinion articles to - [email protected]

For advertisement- [email protected]