Covid transmission to rise outside Dhaka in next 2 weeks: Experts

Health experts have predicted a surge in Covid cases outside Dhaka in the next two weeks as they find the transmission rate stable in the capital.   

They, however, noted that the number of test is very low compared to the transmission rate. They warned that the number of serious patients and deaths will rise too if the number of case increases in the next couple of weeks.

"It seems that the transmission has become stable in Dhaka as a huge number of people have been infected already. Now the transmission is spreading to other districts and rural areas of the country which will continue for the next two weeks," Dr M Mushtuq Husain, adviser of the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR), told The Business Standard Saturday. 

He, however, said the number of test is not increasing keeping pace with the transmission rate. Now the test sample should be over one lakh per day. 

"We have the capacity to test one lakh samples every day. We need to do the test in crowded places in mobile vans following the Rajshahi model," he said.    

In Dhaka, the positivity rate was 16.01% on 15 January, which rose to 29.27% on 22 January, 29.84% on 28 January and 30.03% on 29 January. 

Meanwhile, in Chattogram and Rajshahi, the transmission is rising unusually high.

In Rajshahi, the positivity rate was 12% on 15 January which rose to 28.79% on 22 January, 71.45% on 28 January and 63.21% on 29 January.  

On the other hand, in Chattogram, the positivity rate has jumped from 12.29% on 15 January, which increased to 29.05% on 22 January, 36.86% on 28 January and 27.77% on 29 January.

As the Covid transmission has been increasing alarmingly in Rajshahi, the district administration has issued public circulars urging closure of shops, shopping malls, recreation spots, restaurants and all trading centres after sunset from Saturday.     

Almost 80% of the patients were from Dhaka at the beginning of the third wave in January 2022.

In the last 24 hours, 10,378 positive cases were detected of which 6379 are from Dhaka. The number of case is low as the test is comparatively low on Friday. 

In Chattogram, the number of case was less than 500 just two weeks ago, which has increased to 1,896 with two deaths in the last 24 hours till 8am Saturday.   

Bangladesh reported 21 more deaths of Covid-19 in the last 24 hours.

Meanwhile, the positivity rate dropped to 31.10% a day after setting the record at 33.37%.

The transmission rate and death was the highest in Dhaka from the beginning of the Covid outbreak. But the transmission had increased in the bordering districts from July-August after the Delta wave started. At that time, the hospitals in Chapainababganj, Rajshahi and Khulna were under tremendous pressure with a huge flow of Covid patients.  

As the severity of the Omicron variant is less than Delta, the pressure at the hospitals is less. Because 80% of the Covid patients are receiving treatment from home.   

Dr Mushtuq however warned regarding the increase in seriously ill patients and deaths if the transmission continues increasing.  

Bangladesh has so far registered 28,329 deaths and 17,73,149 infections since the outbreak in 2020 March.