Bangladesh's Indo-Pacific Outlook: What's in it, what's around it

Until a few years ago, "Indo-Pacific" was an obscure term in discussions on international affairs. But now, many countries have adopted Indo-Pacific strategies, including the US, Australia, Britain, France, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and even Mongolia. South Korea joined the pack in December. And most recently, Bangladesh on Monday announced its 15-point Indo-Pacific Outlook (IPO).

The Bangladesh IPO envisions a free, open, peaceful, secure, and inclusive Indo-Pacific for the shared prosperity of all. State Minister for Foreign Affairs Md Shahriar Alam presented the IPO, which was prepared with 15-point objectives based on four guiding principles.

The objectives include strengthening partnerships, promoting dialogue, maintaining maritime safety and security, combating transnational organised crime along with sustainable development, building resilient value chains, and enhancing health security.

Geographically, the Indo-Pacific region comprises the tropical waters of the Indian Ocean, the western and central Pacific Ocean, and the seas connecting the two. The region encompasses mainland African and Asian nations that border these oceans, such as India and South Africa, Indian Ocean territories such as the Kerguelen Islands and Seychelles, the Malay Archipelago, Japan, Russia and other Far East nations bordering the Pacific, Australia and all the Pacific Islands east of them, as well as Pacific nations of the Americas such as Canada or Mexico. 

The Indo-Pacific strategy, which is the catalyst driving other nations to formulate their own outlooks, got momentum during the APEC meeting in 2017 when US President Donald Trump announced a new approach to Asia — a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP). And finally, the release of the Indo-Pacific Strategy by the US in February last year led to other nations quickly coming up with their respective strategies.

The importance of the region and the interest in it as of late can be best described in the words of US Secretary of State Antony J Blinken. "I'm here, we're here, because what happens in the Indo-Pacific will, more than any other region, shape the trajectory of the world in the 21st century," he said back in December 2021 during a speech.

"The United States has long been, is, and always will be an Indo-Pacific nation. This is a geographic fact, from our Pacific coast states to Guam, our territories across the Pacific. And it's a historical reality, demonstrated by our two centuries of trade and other ties with the region," Blinked had further stated.

Most of the US allies, including Japan, Australia, and India have declared their own Indo-Pacific policies. The main Asian holdout now is China. 

For now though, let us look at what the outlook will mean for Bangladesh. The Business Standard spoke to former ambassador Humayun Kabir and Shahab Enam Khan, Fulbright professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Delaware, to understand the recently announced Indo-Pacific Outlook's significance and its potential impact on Bangladesh's larger diplomatic ties.

Read more: 'Now everybody can clearly see what our priorities are'

Now everybody can clearly see what our priorities are: Humayun Kabir

Bangladesh just announced its 15-point Indo-Pacific Outlook (IPO). What are your initial thoughts regarding this?

This has been on the cards for some time now. Finally, the government has come out with a vision. I think this is quite a positive move. The Indo-Pacific region has been the topic of much discussion in recent times and now we have come out and stated our objectives clearly. Now, everybody can clearly see what our priorities are. 

How important is the Indo-Pacific region in the current geopolitical climate?

In the broader context, this has become a global competition. Countries like the US, China, India, Australia and Japan are involved in this global competition. Basically, this interest in the Indo-Pacific is a manifestation of global competition. This is one frame of thinking.

Now, if we move on to a regional frame of thinking, there is an additional resonance for us: the competition between India and China, which is directly affecting us. This regional dimension is also quite important for us.

The third dimension is since we are also a part of this region, we must react to the changes going on as they impact us. We have to have a vision or an outline or a strategy, whatever you may call it, to deal with this change. You have to announce to the world that these are our priorities. 

There is also a fourth dimension. Each nation's response will be determined by its own internal capacity and capability. Just saying something won't make it come true. How much we can influence a situation depends on how much capacity we have.

The way the US can influence a situation, obviously, we cannot. We have to look at what strengths we have. One's politics, society, economy, identity and diplomacy, everything is a part of the national power context. All these factors play a role in determining how seriously others will take my words and whether or not I can follow through.

What do you feel might be the impacts of this announcement?

I don't see any immediate impact. Everybody is announcing their strategies. Japan, the EU, India have come out and announced their strategies and we are all getting to know each other's outlooks, and that is pretty much it. 

However, a churning is taking place. After World War II and the Cold War, this is the biggest churning that we are seeing. A lot of things are changing and there is a tension that was not there in the last 35 years. This will affect everyone to some extent. 

Now, how much it will impact us depends on how well we can assess the situation, what preventive measures we can take and how we can diffuse any situation likely to affect us. 

People will take note and analyse our outlook. Other than that I don't foresee much immediate impact.

Is this outlook a departure from the strategies we have been following in our foreign policy?

No, it is not. This outlook is not inconsistent with our priorities, in fact, it is in line with them. It merely states what we will prioritise in an Indo-Pacific context.

How might the US and China perceive this move by Bangladesh? 

They will definitely look into it and try to gauge how much it aligns with their respective priorities. 

I don't think there will be any friction. Just like we need China, they also need us. International diplomacy is about mutual benefits. But since we are the relatively smaller party here, we must take great care to explain our stance so that they don't misunderstand us. This is where diplomacy comes in.

Right on the heels of this announcement, our Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is making a visit to Japan. Do you feel this will add a new dynamic to the Bangladesh-Japan ties?

Japan and Bangladesh have been development partners for 52 years. They are old allies. I don't think this trip will introduce a new dynamic, but an additional dynamic. As our demands as well as Japan's priorities are changing, I think this trip will further deepen the relationship between the two countries.

I think our IPO announcement will get greater visibility due to the timing of this visit and will potentially be a talking point from our side.

Read more: 'Bangladesh govt has carefully avoided polarisation narratives'

Bangladesh govt has carefully avoided polarisation narratives: Shahab Enam Khan

On 24 April, Bangladesh unveiled its 15-point Indo-Pacific Outlook (IPO). Do you see any significance to this move ahead of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's tri-nation visit?    

The Bangladesh government has recently revealed the country's Indo-Pacific Outlook (IPO), which is a commendable job as this is the first document it can now exhibit as its geopolitical perspective regarding the vast Indo-Pacific region.

This IPO will help Bangladesh build confidence among the Western governments. And the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has disclosed the country's long-due IPO ahead of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's visit to Japan, which too has its own IPO. I hope Bangladesh's move will be appreciated by the Western allies, including Japan. Now, they will take note of the document and look forward to how Bangladesh executes or translates its IPO into reality. 

Since China keeps itself separate from the US-led Indo-Pacific policymaking, do you think Bangladesh's IPO will be a concern for China? 

There are several state parties, and apparently the US allies have already published their IPOs. Hence, a question will be raised as to how China — a big development partner of Bangladesh — will react upon the latest IPO from a strategically important country. 

So far, there seem to be no conflicting issues that could directly oppose mutual trust, respect, bilateral treaties, or shared economic prosperity among the Indo-Pacific nations. The Bangladesh government has carefully avoided polarisation narratives while presenting its IPO. So, I believe no country should have reservations with Bangladesh's IPO.   

What challenges lie ahead for Bangladesh in executing this IPO? 

The document still seems like a wish list from the Bangladesh government. 

My prediction is that Bangladesh will face challenges in execution of the IPO because of the fluid geopolitical situation. 

The entire world is going through a difficult time. Many of us refer to this time as a new cold war due to the Russia-Ukraine War, tensions over Taiwan and so on. So, execution of Bangladesh's IPO will be critical. 

Since the document is still generic and developed based on multilateral visions, Bangladesh cannot execute this IPO alone. A critical path lies ahead because there is a risk of polarisation. 

To address the challenges, Bangladesh needs a more specific and concrete strategy to carefully balance between its national interests: economic growth, security and overall development, and international cooperation. Supporting its IPO, Bangladesh nonetheless needs to expose its clear understanding about the future of regional and global sustainability with prosperity.