Is having more babies a blessing for Bangladesh?

In contrast to the global trend of decreasing birth rates post Covid-19 outbreak, Bangladesh has witnessed a significant increase in its birth rate, leading to a baby boom.

The gross birth rate in Bangladesh rose from 18.8 per 1,000 in 2021 to 19.3 per 1,000 in 2022. Additionally, the total fertility rate among women aged 15 to 49 increased from 2.05 to 2.15.

According to the latest data released by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, the population of individuals below the age of 14 increased by one percentage point to reach 28.7% in 2022.

While major economies such as China, the United States, Japan, Italy, and France are grappling with the demographic challenges posed by declining birth rates, Bangladesh finds itself in a unique position. The higher birth and fertility rates observed in the country run counter to its efforts to control population growth.

Major economies are concerned about the potential consequences of a pandemic-induced baby bust, which would place additional strain on their dwindling working-age population, particularly in terms of providing care for the elderly.

Despite a slight decrease in the working-age population (15-49 years) in 2022 compared to the previous year, this group still constitutes 53.6% of Bangladesh's total population.

The increased number of babies born during the pandemic years is expected to contribute to a rise in the working-age population, which will play a crucial role in caring for individuals aged 60 and above. However, the proportion of this older age group experienced a slight decline, reaching 8.7% last year.

The surge in births and the youth population in Bangladesh raises the question of whether it is a blessing for the country while other nations, including Japan, China, Italy, and France, express concerns about their declining populations.

China, for instance, experienced its first population decline in six decades, while Japan faces significant risks due to its low birth rate and ageing population. Similarly, the United States recorded the lowest number of births in over four decades, and countries like Italy and other European nations are also witnessing declining fertility and birth rates attributed to delayed marriages and postponed motherhood.

Governments worldwide are worried about the economic consequences of falling populations, as this can lead to labour shortages that affect future growth.

In terms of the median age of its population, Bangladesh appears younger compared to many other countries, including the United States. With a median age of 26.7 years, Bangladesh compares favourably to India, which has a median age of 27.9 years. In contrast, European countries and the USA have considerably higher median ages, ranging from 38.1 years to 45.5 years.

Population scientist Prof Dr Mohammad Mainul Islam acknowledges the advantages of Bangladesh having a higher percentage of working-age people. However, he emphasised that this advantage can only be realised if the country invests in quality education and transforms its youth population into human capital.

He also highlights the need to address issues such as child mortality, early marriage, and early pregnancy rates, urging policymakers to revisit existing policies and actions to align with global goals set for 2030.

Bangladesh stands out in South Asia for having a relatively higher percentage of working-age individuals, but its population is ageing rapidly.

"Of every five people, one is aged between 15-24 years in Bangladesh. If we want to use these youths as assets, we need to give them quality education to meet global skill needs as well as ensure good health and nutrition," said Dr Mainul, former chairman of the Department of Population Sciences of the University of Dhaka.  

Only 12 or 13 years are left for Bangladesh to enjoy the peak of the demographic dividend, but budgetary allocations for education and health – two vital sectors for human capital – remained low, in fact, decreased in the new budget as a share of the total budget and GDP, regrets the population scientist.

Health and primary education have the biggest share of vacant posts in the government job which contradicts the government's announced policy to improve public healthcare and education quality, both affected badly by the pandemic. Official data shows over 5 lakh vacant posts in government jobs, the highest 74,574 are in the health sector and 44,790 in primary and mass education.

"Irrespective of party affiliation, we all agree on education for human resource development. But education is not only about golden A-plus, those who can't pass even 10% in Dhaka University admission test. Then the issue of quality of education is also very important for us," Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, distinguished fellow of the CPD.

"In order to ensure the quality of education, emphasis should be placed on primary education. 25%-30% of the total education budget should be spent on the segment," he said, adding that allocation for primary and mass education decreased from 6.51% of the budget in FY17 to 4.56% in FY24.

Prof Mainul feels that the National Population Council is supposed to review and update the policies and actions needed to turn our youth population into human resources to meet future skill requirements both at home and abroad. But the high-powered body could not even hold a meeting in the last 12 years at a time when the country needs to equip its youths with innovative and new skills to integrate into productive sectors and take more care of the ageing people in future, he laments.

Apart from many emerging skills, caregiving for the elderly itself is a promising skill which has good employment prospects in countries with ageing people like Japan, he feels, as the dependency rate marks a rise in Bangladesh too.

The outlook for overall employment in 2023 is uncertain worldwide, but there are sectors that offer bright prospects for future jobs. Being informed about what jobs are in demand and how the future job market will look matters greatly to learning proper skills and getting enrolled.

In its research, LinkedIn has listed 100 roles that have grown the fastest globally over the last four years. Its "Jobs on the Rise" identifies Information Technology and Digital Communication, Sales Growth and Customer Engagement among the most-wanted corporate jobs.

Sustainability and Environment related jobs also have growing demand globally, as pointed out by World Economic Forum in its Future of Jobs 2023, which sees job demands in specific categories will grow.

In India, jobs that focus on business growth and acquisition of new customers are growing – such as sales development, business development, and demand generation that make up half of the list of the country's growing job demand, said LinkedIn.

The World Economic Forum's report on the Future of Jobs in 2023 echoes similar trends, highlighting the growing demand for specific job categories. In India, jobs focusing on business growth, customer acquisition, and sales development have witnessed significant growth.

Artificial learning and machine learning specialists, sustainability specialists, business intelligence analysts, information security analysts, fintech engineers, data analysts and scientists, robotics engineers, electro-technology engineers, agriculture equipment operators, and digital transformation specialists are the fastest-growing jobs worldwide.

These trends align with the observations made in Bangladesh, where the banking sector seeks to strengthen its IT departments, and other industries express a need for specific skills.

The banking sector has experienced consistent recruitment over the past year due to branch expansion and an expanded scope of work. However, stakeholders in the industry note that they struggle to find skilled workers and often need to invest in additional training after hiring university graduates.

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, the managing director of Mutual Trust Bank, emphasised the importance of bridging the gap between educational institutions and industries to provide students with practical knowledge and skills. Furthermore, he calls for separate training programs for teachers to enhance their capabilities.

The software industry in Bangladesh presents significant employment opportunities for educated youths, with the potential to create over a million jobs in the coming years. However, there is a notable industry-academia gap that needs to be addressed to meet the demand for local skills in both domestic and international job markets, said Russel T Ahmed, an industry leader.

He emphasised the importance of upskilling and reskilling to enhance labour productivity and achieve higher income levels for Bangladesh.

"A growing number of youths will be a blessing for us only when they are better educated, in better health, and better employed," Prof Mainul observed, stressing that urgent actions be taken to build human capital before the golden period for demographic dividends expires.