Seat-sharing dilemma: A complex equation for AL?

With no apparent progress on seat-sharing negotiations with the 14-Party Alliance partners and the Jatiya Party, the ruling Awami League is seemingly facing a complicated equation before the upcoming national polls slated for 7 January.

Besides, the stubborn insistence of independent candidates from the party to contest against its official nominees in the election has added to strategic difficulties.

However, the party leaders say the issues will be resolved before the Election Commission's nomination withdrawal deadline on 17 December.

Having contested the past three national elections under the umbrella of the 14-Party Alliance, the Awami League is currently engaged in negotiations with its allies regarding seat sharing. However, an official statement outlining the distribution remains elusive.

Meanwhile, doubts started to surface over the Jatiya Party's participation in the upcoming polls. If it finally stays in the race, it is unclear whether they will join an alliance or compete independently.

Discussions between the 14-Party leaders and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina revealed that the alliance seeks a larger seat allocation than in the previous election, while the Awami League is prepared to offer fewer seats. Additionally, negotiations are still ongoing with the Jatiya Party, despite their public declaration of contesting all 300 seats.

Awami League's heavyweight independent candidates have emerged as a significant challenge for the party's official nominees in over 100 constituencies. Notably, this group includes 26 MPs who were denied nominations, as well as prominent local leaders.

The nominated Awami League candidates expressed frustration, stating that they anticipated clarity regarding the party's decision on independent candidates before submitting their nominations to the Election Commission. However, no instructions have been received to date.

Several Awami League policymakers told The Business Standard that party president Sheikh Hasina seeks to lessen the party's reliance on its alliance partners. She has expressed reservations about compromising seats with the 14-party alliance in the upcoming 12th national elections, particularly regarding their tendency to contest using the AL's "boat" symbol.

She maintains a firm stance against granting the boat symbol to alliance partners, causing disappointment among their candidates. As a result, the issue of seat distribution has not been finalised, they say.

Awami League General Secretary Obaidul Quader recently commented on 14-party alliance candidates, stating that the Awami League is reluctant to allocate seats to candidates likely to lose in the election.

In response, Hasanul Haq Inu, president of the Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JSD), a 14-party alliance partner, told TBS, "Consider the electoral history of the Awami League. Do all the party's candidates consistently emerge victorious?" Addressing seat distribution, he added, "We have proposed an increase in seats compared to the last election. The matter is still under discussion, and we anticipate resolution by 15 December."

According to a source within the 14-Party Alliance, during a recent meeting with the Prime Minister, partner parties requested a total of 24 seats.

The Jatiya Party dilemma

Reports indicate that the Jatiya Party, main opposition party in the current parliament, is interested in forming an alliance with the Awami League, despite publicly declaring its intention to contest all seats with GM Quader as its leader. Nevertheless, uncertainties persist within the ruling party regarding the Jatiya Party's definitive participation in the upcoming elections.

A faction within the Jatiya Party is inclined towards aligning with the Awami League-led alliance. The Jatiya Party, having secured 22 seats in the 11th national election, is seeking a minimum of 40 seats this time from the AL, a matter currently under discussion, according to sources.

Awami League General Secretary Obaidul Quader said on Wednesday, "The Jatiya Party has informed us of their intention to participate in the election and expressed a desire to be part of the alliance. They have not explicitly stated non-participation."

However, media reports have conveyed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's scepticism, asserting that the Jatiya Party cannot be relied upon, and she has expressed concerns about the party potentially withdrawing from the upcoming election.

However, an unplanned meeting between Awami League and Jatiya Party leaders took place on 12 December, during which the Jatiya Party asserted its claim to 40 seats in the coalition elections, say sources.

AL leaders express the party's desire for a competitive election, especially with some parties, including the BNP, the primary opposition political force, boycotting the polls. Consequently, the allies will not be allocated too many seats.

Awami League praesidium member Abdur Rahman told TBS that the upcoming election is envisioned to be participatory, neutral, and credible, emphasising that the Awami League is committed to making necessary decisions to ensure these qualities.