A stubborn Imran Khan, opportunist opponents and a problematic military

The fall of Imran Khan – if you could call it a fall in an ever uncertain Pakistani political landscape – has indeed a lot to do with the military. But it also has a lot to do with the character of Pakistani politicians in general and the stubbornness of Imran Khan himself.

What Imran Khan long feared ever since his ouster from power finally came true on Saturday, when he was arrested following a corruption conviction that handed him a three-year jail sentence. He was taken to Attock Jail in Punjab, notorious for its harsh conditions. He is unlikely to be able now to contest Pakistan's upcoming elections. 

This latest phase of political turmoil in Islamabad was actually driven by three factors - a politician's failure to compromise when time was due for talks, his opponents taking advantage of his vulnerability when the establishment (which in this case is the military) 'intervened', and a clear indication that the problematic military of Pakistan has no intention to let its grip over politics ease. 

There is a long background to the current chronology of the Imran saga. However, for brevity, Khan turned out to be at odds with the military, which once adored him as their favourite. Many continue to allege that the 2018 election was engineered by the military in PTI's favour. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is the political party of Imran Khan. 

However, irrespective of whether the election that Imran won in 2018 was engineered by the military in his favour, he had indeed emerged as the most popular political figure by then. 

In power, Khan found Qamar Javed Bajwa, then military chief of Pakistan, as an ally in his campaign against corruption, which primarily focused on punishing the Sharif (PML-N) and Bhutto (PPP) families. 

But soon this friendship was over as their conflict of interests soared for different reasons, like who to appoint as the spymaster to Imran's efforts, as well extending Bajwa's tenure when his time came to a close. 

Eventually Imran didn't last long at the helm, like many other Pak PM's before him, in the face of odds posed by the military. He was ousted from power on April 10, 2022. 

This time it was not a military coup, rather a political one, supported by the military in the background. 

The political opponents of Imran Khan had their reasons to get rid of a premier who was determined on punishing them. And Imran Khan became overconfident in his military connection that made him believe that even with Bajwa not favouring him he would still find a way to survive. 

So he went the populist way, as he always does. 

Levelling the Shehbaz regime as 'imported government' - in reference to US diplomat Donald Lu who Khan said played a role in his ouster from power over his government's dealing with Russia, the ousted premier actually riled up the nation against the military, and the current regime. 

Things turned extremely heated as PTI activists took to the streets, Imran went on to win one after another by elections on a landslide, and finally on January 5 this year, he pointed fingers to some "black sheep" in the military who he said was plotting to assassinate him. The former premier also sustained a bullet injury in his leg in a rally in Wazirabad last November. 

Imran's rhetoric against the military intensified. 

However, in the face of tremendous challenges from the military that helped him consolidate power in the first place, what Imran Khan apparently didn't realise is that he didn't bring any such change in the military that would work in his favour, when the establishment was working against him.

As a result of the enormous public support that he built, reflected through his by-election victories, Imran was too confident. 

With the momentum of public support he developed since his ouster, his legal trouble could have found some respite with an open call for dialogue with the political opponents, especially when the military was at odds with him. But he didn't see through the larger political game. In fact, his brand of populism might have played a role in shrouding his judgement. 

Things went entirely south for Khan when he was arrested in May and a mob attacked Pak military infrastructure. The regime cracked down on PTI as a whole. Most of the PTI leadership resigned from politics under pressure from the military. Khan was eventually released but completely isolated. 

At this point, Khan started floating the idea of dialogue with the regime. But Shehbaz, Nawaz or the Bhuttos were already loving the isolated Khan, and they were preying on the sidelined PTI, even though that meant broader submission of the politicians to the Pak military's will and mercy. 

But that doesn't mean much to Pak politicians. Since it is power they crave for (no matter how much at the mercy of the military that power may be), Pak politicians time and again fail to stand up to the grip of the military, as evidenced by history. 

Just like Imran enjoyed it when Bajwa and co punished Sharif and Bhutto families, now the Bhuttos and the Sharifs are enjoying the establishment's enmity and crackdown over Imran. 

However, rest assured, the Pak military will not take long to throw out the current regime as well, when their interests are at conflict.

The latest Dawn editorial perhaps illustrates the current scenario best, "The fact is that Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto were not, and Imran Khan will not be rendered irrelevant to Pakistanis over some technical knockout. The fate of a politician rests in the hands of their constituency, and no amount of external interference can change this simple relationship. The experiment was tried in the earlier two cases and failed, and the state seems to be repeating the same mistake, only to weaken a fraying social contract further." 

So this was in general a defeat for Pakistani politics. The last one year of turmoil in Pakistan only showed how greed guides the Pak politicians, instead of democratic values. And the military will perhaps keep preying on the vulnerable democracy of Pakistan in the foreseeable future.