South Asia prepares to head to the polls next year in a grand test for democracy

As the world gears up for a new year, 2 billion South Asians across Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, and Sri Lanka are preparing to head to the polls next year in a grand test for democracy.

While Bangladesh is headed towards an election boycotted by the main opposition, as the world's longest-serving female prime minister looks set to extend her rule, India looks towards a populist leader hoping to enter his second decade in power as he pushes a popular but religiously divisive brand of politics.

Meanwhile, a cricket legend and former prime minister languishing in prison versus a one-time fugitive looking to make a comeback, as a powerful military keeps watch in Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, an island nation, hopes to recover from its worst economic crisis in decades after protesters stormed the presidential palace.

All former colonies who gained independence from Britain within the last century, each are at a different stage of growth and facing a variety of crises and opportunities, reports CNN.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh, once a multiparty democratic country of some 170 million people, is the first to cast votes on 7 January. Sheikh Hasina, the current Prime Minister and chair of the Awami Party who has been in power since 2009, is likely to be reelected as the country's leader for a fourth consecutive term.

Her primary opponent Khaleda Zia, 78, a former prime minister and chief of the main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), had been jailed the year before on corruption charges and now lives under house arrest, says CNN.

The situation has led to protests, and the BNP has decided to boycott the election again, paving the way for Hasina once more.

"The government is claiming to commit to free and fair elections with diplomatic partners while the state authorities are simultaneously filling prisons with the ruling Awami League's political opponents," said Julia Bleckner, a senior Asia researcher at Human Rights Watch, in a November statement.

"A free election is impossible when the government stifles free expression and systematically incapacitates the opposition, critics, and activists through arbitrary arrests, enforced disappearance, harassment, and intimidation," Bleckner added.

Yet, the country – which aspires to become a middle-income country by 2031 – is experiencing an era of economic growth. Much of this is because of the garment manufacturing industry, which accounts for 35.1% of Bangladesh's annual gross domestic product, according to the US Commerce Department.

"Since it's come into being, Bangladesh has always had political instability, but they've managed to have a very good growth rate," said Sreeradha Dutta, a professor of international affairs at OP Jindal Global University and author of "Bangladesh on a New Journey – Moving Beyond Regional Identity."

She also added that the country is building strong relations with key neighbors in the region.

"So irrespective of whoever the leader is, the same developmental models will be picked up… because Bangladesh aspires to be something much larger than what it currently is."

Pakistan

Pakistan, the country of 230 million that has been governed by political dynasties or military establishments for the last 76 years, has not democratically elected a leader who has completed a full five-year term since Pakistan won independence.

In recent years, Pakistan has seen the all-too-familiar mix of political instability and militant attacks percolate alongside a particularly acute economic crisis that has been brutal on both middle and lower-income families.

According to reports, the former prime minister Imran Khan is languishing behind bars, charged with fraud and facing charges for revealing state secrets – leaving him unable to contest in the upcoming polls in February.

TV stations are banned from running Khan's speeches, and many of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party colleagues have been arrested.

In October, Nawaz Sharif, the fugitive former prime minister of Pakistan, returned to the South Asian nation after nearly four years in self-exile, skirting arrest and stirring up the country's already fraught political scene and leaving many to believe he is bidding for the top seat once again.

The country, meanwhile, faces mounting economic uncertainty and frequent militant attacks to climate catastrophes that are putting millions at risk.

"Political and economic uncertainty go hand in hand," said Fahd Humayun, an assistant professor of political science & Neubauer faculty fellow at the department of political science at Tufts University.

"And any government coming to power through suspicious elections is not only likely to be on a weak footing and reliant on the military for its political survival but will also be unlikely to attract the capital inflows so badly needed."

India

Often called the world's largest experiment in democracy, India is expected to head to the polls in the spring, in a mammoth election that is likely to see Prime Minister Narendra Modi secure a rare third term in power, says CNN.

The populist leader of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has tightened his grip on India's democratic institutions in a way not seen since the 1970s, when Indira Gandhi ruled the country with an iron fist, pushing it toward autocracy.

2023 has been a remarkable year for India's 1.4 billion people.

In August, India made history by soft landing a rover on the moon and hosted the Group of 20 (G20) in September, presenting New Delhi with an opportunity to extend its leadership beyond the country's borders at a time of increasing political turmoil.

Yet, since his first election nearly a decade ago, critics also say the once secular and democratic founding ethos of the world's largest democracy is crumbling at an alarming speed, with minorities feeling persecuted under the BJP's majoritarian policies and any criticism of the government facing censorship and harsh punishment.

Squaring off against Modi is a newly formed alliance of 26 political parties known as INDIA, which includes the country's main opposition, the Indian National Congress. But in its most recent gauge of voter sentiment, the Congress party lost three out of four regional votes in key state elections in December, giving a boost to Modi and his BJP.

As the election draws close, analysts say Indian politics remains unpredictable.

"People are hoping there will be a challenge to Modi, that the opposition parties can get their act together. That dream that seemed possible even three months ago now looks more difficult," said C. Raja Mohan, a senior fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute, during a recent talk with the Asia Society.

"But even six months is a long time in politics."

Sri Lanka

Nearly two years ago, Sri Lanka's then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was forced to flee his country after angry protesters stormed his residence in anger, blaming him for the country's worst economic crisis in 73 years.

The country struggled as inflation soared and foreign reserves dwindled, leaving millions unable to afford food, fuel, and medicines.

Rajapaksa resigned from his post, paving the way for current President Ranil Wickremesinghe to take over.

In elections expected before September, Wickremesinghe is likely to stand for a second term, months after he helped secure a much-needed loan from the International Monetary Fund and made sweeping reforms to the

 budget to ensure financial growth.

Sri Lanka hasn't had a general election since 2018, and Wickremesinghe has repeatedly delayed the polls due to the economic crisis.