China has already won, and lost, in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine throws mud at President Xi Jinping's feet. China's primary pillar of its foreign policy is "non-interference": the idea sovereignty is sacrosanct, which resonates with many developing countries sick of being lectured by the West.

Now, with explosions rocking the capital Kyiv, Chinese diplomats are stuck defending behaviour in practice they loudly condemn in principle. Nor will the world's largest oil importer appreciate $105 barrels of oil as it grapples with slowing economic growth.

The Sino-Russian relationship was once quite hostile. Their armies have exchanged fire over border disputes, and older Chinese still remember how Russia pried Mongolia away from China in the early 20th century. But the two share a common interest in insulating their supply chains and financial systems from America and have moved closer together diplomatically. Economically Russia is also a secure source of energy. The bilateral trade relationship was worth around $140 billion in 2021, per Chinese state media.

It's unclear whether China believed Putin's threats were mere bluster to help it extract security guarantees from the NATO. Wang Yi, the country's top diplomat, stated last week on the record that Ukraine is no exception to the sovereignty principle.

There is a silver lining. Xi has been losing global popularity contests for years without feeling too much pain, and China's neighbours don't take its position of non-interference seriously: the People's Liberation Army invaded Vietnam in 1979. As the West focuses on punishing Russia financially as much as they can afford to, Beijing might catch a break from US containment efforts.

An isolated Russia will need China even more to buy its energy and wheat, and to soften the impact of US financial sanctions. Owing Putin no favours, Xi will drive hard bargains. China could use more Russian natural gas to meet emissions reductions targets, but the country has other supply options, improving its negotiating hand. It may also gain leverage in Central Asia, Russia's backyard. Xi may be embarrassed, but he can console himself with leverage.