Jamal Khashoggi: How intelligence report could sever US-Saudi relations for years

The declassified US intelligence report into the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi is a blow to the wealth, reputation, and international status of Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, one of the Middle East's most influential men.

It may have long-term consequences for the West's ties with Saudi Arabia, reports the BBC.

Asserting that the crown prince was involved in the horrific murder in 2018 would make it more difficult for Western leaders to openly identify with him.

Nonetheless, as things stand now, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince seems to be likely to rule Saudi Arabia for a long time.

He is only 35 years old and still enjoys widespread popularity among the overwhelmingly young population of Saudi Arabia. 

There has been limited public criticism of the crown prince until now, partly due to patriotism and a massive clampdown on civil liberties.

President Biden has stated that he wants to negotiate with King Salman of Saudi Arabia, not the crown prince, but the king and his son are operating in an extremely similar concert, so in practice, this distinction is effectively meaningless.

King Salman, 85,  has already handed over much of his powers to the prince and is in poor health.

Chilling tape

Most Western intelligence services have long known about the crown prince's links to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi; they just haven't been made public.

Gina Haspel, who led the CIA from 2018 to earlier this year, flew to Ankara, where Turkish intelligence played her the chilling audio tape of Khashoggi's last, desperate moments inside the Saudi Consulate, as he was overpowered and suffocated by Riyadh's agents.

Turkey's secret recordings from inside the Saudi Consulate - itself a diplomatic misdemeanour that has been largely overlooked amid the horror of Khashoggi's murder - have also been shared with other Western intelligence agencies.

US officials said the CIA had concluded, "with a medium to high degree of certainty", that MBS was complicit.

But while President Trump was in the White House the US intelligence report was kept under wraps so as not to embarrass his close ally in Riyadh. That top cover has now vanished.

Not Washington's favourite

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was not Washington's preferred choice to become the next king.

That man was Prince Mohammed bin Nayef who was next in line to the throne until MBS had him removed in 2017. MBN, as he is known, is now under arrest, accused of corruption and plotting against the crown prince, which his family deny.

For years MBN was America's most important ally in the Saudi royal family and, as the interior minister who successfully defeated the al-Qaeda insurgency, he forged close links with the CIA through his intelligence chief Saad Al-Jabry. Al-Jabry is now living in self-imposed exile in Canada and claims in court that MBS sent a hit squad to kill him.

So the CIA have history when it comes to the current crown prince.

They still need a good working relationship with the Saudi royal court, given the ongoing global threat from IS and al-Qaeda-inspired terrorism, but they would much prefer to deal with a safe and steady pair of hands like MBN rather than the unpredictable maverick that is MBS.

A gift for Iran

Anything that undermines the strategic US-Saudi partnership is a gift to Saudi Arabia's regional rival, Iran.

Despite years of sanctions, experts have recently concluded that Iran has achieved the upper hand in the Middle East, extending its strategic reach through its proxy militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen - leaving the Saudis surrounded.

When President Biden announced a moratorium on US weapons for the Saudi-led war effort in Yemen, the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels there were quick to capitalise on this. They have since advanced on several fronts, knowing that their enemy is hobbled by the arms ban.

In the long term, all this will likely push the Saudi leadership towards diversifying its defence and security partners, possibly opening new doors for Russia and China.

It may also push Riyadh to build closer ties with Israel, with whom it shares a common fear of Iranian expansion and nuclear proliferation.