Global economic losses for Covid-19 may reach $8.8 trillion: ADB

The global economy could suffer between $5.8 trillion and $8.8 trillion in losses – equivalent to 6.4 percent to 9.7 percent of the global GDP – owing to the coronavirus pandemic, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

A new report released on Friday finds that economic losses in Asia and the Pacific could range from $1.7 trillion, under a short containment scenario of three months, to $2.5 trillion under a long containment scenario of six months, with the region accounting for about 30 percent of the overall decline in global output.

The People's Republic of China could suffer losses between $1.1 trillion and $1.6 trillion, states the report titled "Updated Assessment of the Potential Economic Impact of Covid-19."

The new analysis updates findings presented in the Asian Development Outlook 2020 published on April 3, which estimated Covid-19's global cost to range from $2 trillion to $4.1 trillion.

Governments around the world have been quick in responding to the impacts of the pandemic, implementing measures such as fiscal and monetary easing, increased health spending, and direct support to cover losses in incomes and revenues, the report reads.

Sustained efforts from governments focused on these measures could soften the economic impact of Covid‑19 by as much as 30 percent to 40 percent, according to the report.

This could reduce global economic losses due to the pandemic to between $4.1 trillion and $5.4 trillion.

ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada said, "This new analysis presents a broad picture of the very significant potential economic impact of Covid-19. It also highlights the important role policy interventions can play to help mitigate damage to economies.

"These findings can provide governments with a relevant policy guide as they develop and implement measures to contain and suppress the pandemic, and lessen its impacts on their economies and people," he added.

The report highlights that the GDP in South Asia will be lower by $142 billion to $218 billion (3.9 percent to 6 percent).

Note: The 3-month and 6-month containment periods assumed in the scenarios are country-specific. They are the assumed time needed for a country to get a domestic outbreak under control from when the outbreak intensifies and start normalising economic activity.