China's climate plan 'modest improvement': World Resources Institute

World Resources Institute (WRI), a global research non-profit organisation, says China's new climate commitment is a modest improvement over the country's previous plan under the Paris Agreement.

China on Thursday released a new national climate commitment under the Paris Agreement where it set a goal of peaking CO2 emissions before 2030, achieving carbon neutrality before 2060, and lowering CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by over 65% from the 2005 level, said a press release.

In a statement, Helen Mountford, vice president Climate and Economics at WRI, said the plan comes days before the COP26 UN climate summit and follows earlier commitments by China this year to strictly control domestic coal-fired power generation and stop building coal-fired power plants abroad.

 "To get on a pathway to reach its 2060 carbon neutrality goal, it is critical for China to further strengthen its new near-term targets and put in place measures to reach them. Our analysis shows that China can step up its efforts to reduce emissions while also enjoying decade. This includes rapidly shifting its energy mix from coal to wind and solar, starting to economic growth and a more sustainable environment," she said.

"China needs to take more actions domestically to rein in greenhouse gas emissions this shrink its carbon footprint by 2027 or sooner, and peaking its non-CO2 emissions which have the same warming impact as Russia's total greenhouse emissions."

In the plan, China also aims to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 25%, to increase the forest stock volume by 6 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level, and bring its total installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1.2 billion kilowatts by 2030.

In the updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), China will strictly curb coal-powered projects, set strict limits on the increase in coal consumption during 2021-2025 and phase it down during 2026-2030. China emphasised again that it will effectively control non-CO2 GHG emissions.

By following through on its '1+N' policy framework, China can implement a slate of domestic measures to mainstream China's climate goals across different industries and sectors.

"New analysis by WRI and Climate Analytics shows that China has the potential to fill 25% of the global gap between countries' current climate commitments and the emission reductions necessary to keep the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C temperature limit within reach. If the world is going to have any chance of coming to grips with the climate crisis, China – as well as all other major emitters -- needs to graduate from taking small steps to giant leaps toward a cleaner and safer future," Helen Mountford added.

WRI research shows that bold climate action by China could generate savings of $530 billion in fuel, operation, and maintenance costs over 30 years. Ambitious climate action would also save China nearly 1.9 million lives and generate roughly $1 trillion in net economic and social benefits in 2050.

"The updated NDC underlines the upcoming Adaptation Strategy 2035, which will strengthen the integration of adaptation actions in economic, social, and environment development in the next 15 years. Going forward, it is incumbent on the country to not only rein in emissions but also develop clear action plans to protect its citizens from increasingly dangerous and costly impacts."

The COP 26 UN Climate Change Conference will take place from 31 October to 12 November in the Scottish Event Campus (SEC) in Glasgow, UK.