Taming fuel panic with technology and smarter distribution

The ongoing Iran–US–Israel conflict has rattled global energy markets and revived familiar anxiety in many oil-importing countries, including Bangladesh. Supply disruptions and uncertainty in the global oil market have triggered panic buying among consumers. Long queues at fuel stations—stretching for hours—have become a daily reality for car owners and motorists hoping to fill their tanks before supplies run out or prices rise further.

This reaction is understandable. When consumers fear scarcity and higher prices, they tend to stockpile. Yet panic buying often worsens the very shortages people fear. Even though the government has assured the public that sufficient reserves exist in the short term, the lack of an orderly distribution mechanism fuels speculation, hoarding, and inefficiencies.

To manage such crises more effectively, Bangladesh should rethink how fuel is distributed and monitored. Traditional rationing alone is unlikely to work in a complex, digitally connected economy. Instead, the country should combine simple administrative measures with modern technology, data analytics, and improved supply-demand planning.

Learning from simple solutions

Several countries have adopted basic but effective methods during fuel shortages. In the United States, for example, some regions have implemented odd-even licence plate systems, allowing cars with odd or even numbers to refuel on alternate days. This approach reduces congestion at filling stations and spreads demand more evenly.

While such measures may provide temporary or limited relief, they do not fully address the structural challenges of managing supply disruptions over a prolonged period. Bangladesh, however, could take advantage of its growing digital capabilities and large pool of local programmers to build a more sophisticated, technology-driven solution.

A digital fuel management platform

A practical way forward would be to introduce a nationwide digital platform for fuel allocation and monitoring. This system could operate through a mobile application linked to vehicle registration records maintained by the Bangladesh Road Transport Authority.

Every registered vehicle owner would install the app and verify their identity instantly through the existing database. Registration would be simple and automated, requiring only the basic KYC information already associated with the vehicle. Both drivers and owners could access the platform.

Fuel stations would also be required to register on the system, creating a unified digital network connecting consumers, pumps, and regulators.

Managing demand through smart scheduling

Once registered, vehicle owners would submit their fuel requirements through the app, subject to a maximum allocation for each category of user, such as private car owners, commercial vehicles, or public transport operators. Users could choose their preferred filling station from a list of pumps within their district or region and indicate the amount of fuel required.

The system would then provide available time slots for refuelling. After selecting a slot, the user would receive confirmation along with a unique QR code, which would function as a digital authorisation for fuel purchase. At the pump, a QR code reader would verify the request, record the transaction, and update the station's inventory in real time.

This simple digital process would help eliminate long queues at fuel stations, prevent panic buying and hoarding, provide transparent records of fuel transactions, and ensure fair allocation among consumers. If managing diverse user groups proves challenging at the outset, the government could implement the system gradually. For instance, the first phase could focus on private car owners, who constitute the majority of consumers waiting in long queues at fuel stations. Once the system is tested and refined, it could later be expanded to commercial vehicles, public transport, and other fuel users.

Real-time data for smarter policy

Perhaps the most powerful advantage of such a system would be the data it generates. For the first time, the government would have real-time visibility into fuel consumption patterns across the country—down to specific regions, stations, and user categories.

This information would allow policymakers to detect potential shortages early, identify distribution bottlenecks, and allocate supplies more efficiently.

Over time, advanced analytics and artificial intelligence could be applied to analyse consumption patterns. The system could estimate demand trends, detect anomalies, and support more accurate planning of imports and logistics.

Fair usage limits and transparency

The platform could also introduce rational usage ceilings. Each vehicle could be allocated a maximum fuel limit within a given time. Those who require additional fuel—for example, for commercial purposes—could request higher allocations but would pay an additional surcharge or tax through the app.

Digital transactions would reduce opportunities for corruption and black-market activity—problems that often emerge when shortages create incentives for profiteering.

Currently, scarcity-driven rationing can encourage informal payments and manipulation within the distribution chain. A transparent digital system would significantly reduce these distortions.

Addressing special users

Any national fuel management system must also account for diverse user groups. Diesel used in agriculture, for example, supports irrigation and food production and therefore cannot be treated in the same way as fuel used for private cars.

The platform could classify users into different categories, such as private vehicles, agricultural equipment, power generators, and commercial transport. Each category could then have separate allocation rules and priority levels, ensuring that critical economic sectors continue to function even during supply disruptions.

Integrating fuel stations into the digital system

For the proposed platform to function effectively, all fuel stations would need to be integrated into the system. Each station would register on the platform and connect its sales and inventory data to a central database. This integration would make it possible to track fuel reserves and monitor actual fuel sales to consumers in real time.

Technologically, this integration could be relatively straightforward. Each pump would operate through a digital point-of-sale interface equipped with a QR code scanner linked to the central system. When a consumer arrives at the station and presents the QR code generated by the mobile application, the pump operator would scan the code to verify the authorisation. Once the fuel is dispensed, the transaction would automatically update the station's inventory and transmit the data to the central platform.

This process would allow the system to capture real-time information on the quantity of fuel sold, the remaining inventory at each station, and the geographic patterns of fuel consumption. Such transparency would give policymakers and regulators immediate visibility into supply and demand conditions across the country.

If a particular region begins to experience abnormal demand or rapidly declining reserves, the system could flag the situation early, enabling authorities to intervene promptly by redirecting supply or adjusting distribution schedules.

Importantly, this integration would not require highly sophisticated infrastructure. Many fuel stations already use digital payment systems or basic inventory software. By standardising these systems and linking them to a national platform, the government could build a responsive and transparent fuel monitoring network at a relatively modest cost.

Over time, this real-time data system would become an invaluable tool for managing supply disruptions, planning fuel imports, and ensuring that scarce resources are distributed fairly and efficiently.

From crisis response to long-term resilience

The current fuel panic should not be seen merely as a temporary disruption but as a warning about the vulnerabilities of an import-dependent energy system. With geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and price shocks becoming more frequent, countries that rely heavily on imported fuel must develop more resilient systems for managing both supply and demand.

A technology-enabled fuel management platform would allow the government to move from reactive crisis management to proactive planning. Real-time data on inventory, distribution, and consumption would give policymakers a clear picture of demand patterns across regions and user groups, enabling them to anticipate shortages, adjust procurement strategies, and distribute supplies more efficiently. Transparent allocation and data-driven monitoring would also help stabilise markets and reduce panic during periods of uncertainty.

Equally important, a digital system would reduce opportunities for corruption and black-market activities that often emerge during shortages. When transactions are digitally recorded and linked to verified users and registered stations, transparency increases and manipulation becomes more difficult. Consumers would also benefit from greater predictability, replacing long hours in queues with scheduled access to fuel.

Bangladesh has already demonstrated strong capacity in building digital public services. With its pool of software developers and data analysts, the country can design and implement such a platform domestically at relatively low cost. If needed, a phased rollout—starting with private vehicles and gradually expanding to commercial transport, agriculture, and power generators—would allow the system to be tested and refined.

Ultimately, the goal is not simply to manage a moment of panic but to build a modern and resilient fuel distribution system. With the right use of technology, transparency, and data-driven planning, Bangladesh can turn today's fuel anxiety into an opportunity to strengthen how it manages one of its most critical resources.

Md Enayetur Rahman and Abdullah Al Masud are the CEO and Consultant Business Economist, respectively, at Ulkasemi, the largest semiconductor design services company in Bangladesh. 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.