Safeguarding tomorrow: Expanding nuclear baseload is crucial for Bangladesh's energy security

Over the years, Bangladesh's energy sector has undergone three transformations.

The Indigenous Gas Dominance Era, when domestic onshore gas fuelled power plants, fertiliser production, industry and households; the Import-Dependent Fossil Fuel Era of coal, oil and LNG, which created critical macroeconomic and energy security challenges; and the emerging Sustainable Transition Era, aimed at reducing reliance on volatile imported fuels, scaling domestic renewables, accelerating offshore gas exploration, diversifying the energy mix and modernising sector policies to achieve energy sovereignty.

A hybrid strategy framework for energy independence of Bangladesh

Transitioning from a 95% fossil-dependent, 65% import-heavy framework to a diversified, low-carbon mix requires a pragmatic, evidence-based approach free from ideological preferences. A purely deterministic (base-load) or probabilistic (variable renewable) approach alone causes supply shortfalls.

Lessons from the past two eras confirm that guaranteed real-time supply demands infrastructure resilience, proven dispatchable technologies, front-end fuel security and domestic resource utilisation. 

The "Fallen Fossil Fuel, Rising Resilient Renewables (3F-3R)" pathway, implemented through a hybrid Deterministic-Probabilistic Framework, is necessary to manage renewable intermittency, achieve price stability and secure long-term energy independence.

Strategic framework for long-term energy security

Despite 30,000 MW total installed capacity, actual supply averages only 11,000–15,000 MW against peak summer demand of 16,000–18,500 MW, causing widespread load shedding. Gas/LNG (43% of grid capacity, 12,500 MW) is heavily underutilised due to gas shortages; coal (7,000+ MW) runs below 50% capacity due to import delays and maintenance.

The EPSMP's hybrid forecasting model — integrating macroeconomic GDP correlation with sectoral load profiles to prevent overcapacity and reduce import dependence — projects peak electricity demand at 27,087 MW (2030), 40,836 MW (2040) and 59,351 MW (2050) under BAU growth (5.9% GDP), and 47,312 MW (2030), 59,205 MW (2040) and 70,030 MW (2050) under the high-growth scenario. The IAEA and WNA recommend that developing countries with large populations and limited domestic fossil resources transition to domestic renewables with clean energy base-loads.

1. Phase I: Short-term strategy (2026–2030)

This phase focuses on domestic infrastructure expansion and immediate base-load stabilisation:

• Domestic Gas and imported LNG (30%–40%): Prioritises RLNG and indigenous gas for CCGT plants by expanding LNG infrastructure;
• Coal (25%–30%): Maintains existing imported and domestic coal-fired stations for baseload stability;
• Renewables (10%–20%): Scales grid-connected utility-scale solar, industrial rooftops and utility-scale wind;
• Nuclear (5%–10%): Integrates the Rooppur NPP (2,400 MW, two units) into the grid;
• Cross-border (5%–10%): Increases regional grid connectivity and electricity imports;
• Liquid Fuel (5%–10%): Retains a minimum share for peak-demand management and emergency stabilisation.

2. Phase II: Mid-Term Strategy (2030–2040)

This decade focuses on capacity scaling and clean energy expansion:

• Renewables (25%–35%): Scales utility-scale solar, industrial and commercial rooftops, onshore wind and waste-to-energy technologies;
• Domestic Gas and imported LNG (20%–35%): Transition gas and RLNG to mid-merit and peak operations via CCGT rather than continuous baseload;
• Domestic and imported coal, liquid fuel and emerging tech (15%–25%): Reduces imported coal reliance; indigenous coal incorporates CCS;
• Nuclear (10%–15%): Expands nuclear capacity beyond the initial Rooppur units;
• Electricity Import (5%–10%): Broadens regional power trading.

3. Phase III: Long-Term Strategy — advanced clean technologies (2040–2050)

• Utility-scale solar, wind and storage (40%–50%): Integrates VPPs and BESS to manage variable generation;
• Domestic gas with CCS (15%–20%): Scales down gas to a deterministic buffer for grid balancing with CCS where applicable;
• Nuclear expansion (10%–20%): Expands zero-carbon nuclear capacity beyond initial sites;
• Domestic coal and advanced technologies (10%–20%): Replaces imported coal with indigenous coal using CCS, alongside green hydrogen and ammonia co-firing in existing thermal plants;
• Electricity imports (5%–10%): Continues regional power trading.

Overcoming implementation challenges

Grid integration and intermittency: The single national grid managed by the Power Grid Company of Bangladesh requires significant modernisation to handle renewable intermittency.

Diversified renewables deployment, geographic concentration and financing: While sufficient rooftop and non-agricultural land options exist, securing adequate non-agricultural or unutilised land remains a critical barrier. Utility-scale solar and wind are concentrated in the south and coastal areas (Cox's Bazar, Bagerhat); upgrading HVDC transmission lines to the main load centre in Dhaka requires massive capital investment.

Domestic gas exploration, LNG imports and use of domestic coal: Imported LNG and coal will dominate the primary energy mix for decades despite active offshore and onshore exploration. Experts raise concerns over supply delays, financial viability and fossil fuel lock-in. Coal expansion conflicts with Bangladesh's climate commitments; domestic coal extraction has stalled due to the absence of a national coal policy and an unresolved open-pit versus underground mining debate.

Technological immaturity and economic and financial risks of advanced technologies: CCS and ammonia co-firing face concerns over technological immaturity, economic viability and the risk of delaying climate action by locking the country into continued fossil fuel reliance.

Cross-border transmission bottlenecks: Cross-border transmission requires multilateral cooperation with neighbouring countries and major domestic infrastructure upgrades to handle a large base-load share reliably without regional voltage drops.

Nuclear baseload for Bangladesh's energy security

Global nuclear energy is undergoing a historic renaissance to meet surging 24/7 power demands, ensure grid security and achieve net-zero targets. Over 50 countries are advancing programs through gigawatt-scale projects, plant life extensions, grid restarts and SMRs — an approach previously adopted by France, Russia and Korea. 

WNA projects global nuclear capacity could reach 1,446 GWe by 2050 (from 397 GWe across 440 operable reactors), surpassing the international pledge to triple nuclear energy, with China, France, India, Russia and the US leading growth.

China is targeting 100,000 MW by 2030 and 350,000 MW by 2050 from its current 63,000 MW. India aims for 100 GW by 2047. Japan continues restarting reactors as an energy security cornerstone, over 15 years after Fukushima. Pakistan is building Chashma NPP Unit 5 (Chinese HPR1000), targeting 8,800 MW (2030) and 40,000 MW (2050). The US, UK and other Western nations are pursuing life extensions, grid restarts and next-generation SMRs to power the grid and AI data centres. 

Turkey is constructing the Akkuyu NPP — four Generation III+ VVER units, 4,800 MW combined — at an estimated $24–25B (exceeding $30B with financing and escalation), under a BOO model. Egypt is implementing the $30B El Dabaa NPP — four Generation III+ VVER units, 4,800 MW. The 

The UAE built the 5,600 MW Barakah NPP to diversify its energy mix, reduce emissions and free hydrocarbons for export. Saudi Arabia is planning two initial units of 1.2–1.6 GW each under the Saudi National Atomic Energy Project. African nations, including Kenya, Ghana and Rwanda, are advancing regulatory frameworks and pre-project milestones, viewing nuclear as vital for industrialisation and reliable baseload.

Bangladesh's Rooppur NPP (2,400 MW) has completed fuel loading at Unit 1, with ~300–350 MW of trial power expected for the national grid by late July or mid-August this year, laying the foundation for future large-scale reactor and SMR integration. 

A nuclear capacity target of 7,200–9,000 MW aligns with regional and global projections and directly supports the third energy transition by providing stable, uninterrupted baseload, shielding the grid from fossil fuel price volatility, protecting against geopolitical disruptions and meeting climate targets. 

A strategic nuclear-renewable combination effectively bridges variable renewable output and the need for reliable baseload power while ensuring long-term energy independence.

Mohammad Shawkat Akbar is the Former Chairman of the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.