Kabul falls. Should Dhaka worry?

With the fall of the Kabul Government on Sunday, the destiny of Afghanistan is sealed with the Taliban. The Taliban, formerly listed as a terrorist organisation, previously ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. The group holds an orthodox view of Islam and was accused of hosting Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.

The United States entered Kabul some 20 years ago to avenge the 9/11 terrorist attack by defeating the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Ironically, it could escape from Afghanistan only after signing an uneasy peace deal with the Taliban, the foe it intended to destroy. Afghanistan once more lived up to the cliché "the graveyard of empires."

A question has arisen, why did Kabul fall within a few weeks? The answer is plain and simple. In Afghanistan, there were no elements that could challenge the Taliban's tactical advances. The Government in Kabul was corrupt and suffering from a legitimacy crisis. Politically, it failed to unite the country against a Taliban offensive.

On their part, most Afghan citizens had no particular love for President Ashraf Ghani's regime.  Changes in power make little difference to them. All they desired was to evade another full-fledged war. Hence, Afghan elders stepped in to negotiate a peaceful surrender whenever the Taliban entered into new territories.

The Afghan soldiers received no payment for the last couple of months. The Kabul government also failed to deliver the necessary logistics and reinforcements. When the Taliban, in a masterstroke, declared a general amnesty for soldiers in return for surrender, the soldiers did not hesitate to cash out this opportunity. Consequently, the Taliban received a blank cheque to envelop the Afghan capital within days.

As the Afghan conundrum is over for now, should Bangladesh be worried? Unfortunately, the answer is affirmative. The melting down of the Afghan state has some severe implications for Dhaka too. Bangladesh's success against terrorism is an exemplary one across the world. However, the changing strategic environment indicates that the country's success could be short-lived.

History tells us that some radical elements of Bangladesh had a Taliban connection. They fought along with the Taliban against the Soviets. Motivated by the Taliban's ideology, they later opened terrorist franchises like the Harkat-ul Jihad al-Islami Bangladesh in Bangladesh. With the return of the Taliban in Kabul, these elements may try to revive.

Under the Taliban regime, Kabul could once again become a terrorist sanctuary just like the old times. Although the Taliban promised not to host any terrorist groups, it is hard to take that seriously.

There have been reports that upon the call of the Taliban, some people from Bangladesh tried to reach Afghanistan to join them. This event could set a new trend in cross-border terrorism. Bangladesh must address this harsh reality and security agencies should neutralise this trend in its infancy.

Meanwhile, the Rohingya refugee camps could be a cause for concern for the Bangladeshi security apparatus. These camps are teeming with disenfranchised refugees desperate to change their condition. Radical elements might try to recruit them. This would jeopardise our national security significantly.

Fortunately, Bangladesh has a solid political commitment against terrorism. The security forces are well trained to tackle terrorist threats. All Bangladesh needs to do is recognise this changing reality and coordinate among the security agencies to tackle any unwanted situation.

Md. Ataur Rahman Talukder is a lecturer at the Department of International Relations, Bangladesh University of Professionals, Dhaka. He can be reached at [email protected].

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.