Climate change and what it means for Bangladesh

Bangladesh is the 8th most vulnerable country to the clutches of climate change. Her geography, high population density, and reliance on climate-vulnerable industries make her susceptible to the effects of climate change, even though she has a low carbon footprint. The article focuses on the country's challenges and ways to overcome them in the face of imminent climate disasters.

In the early 1800s, the French mathematician and physicist Joseph Fourier introduced the idea of the greenhouse effect, comparing the Earth's atmosphere to that of a greenhouse, which helps to retain heat. Later, scientist Eunice Newton Foot established the role of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the process. Carbon dioxide measurements in the 1950s confirmed global warming, with human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels, identified as a major cause.

Even though natural phenomena could never explain the warming trends, it wasn't until pivotal moments like the 1930s' recognition of carbon emissions' warming effect and increased awareness in the 1980s that deepened our understanding of climate change. The United Nations stepped up to address global warming through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). As part of this effort, the Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty, was adopted on December 11, 1997. Its purpose was to operationalize the UNFCCC by committing industrialised countries and economies in transition to limit and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 

Bangladesh's Climate Profile

Bangladesh's unique geographic landscape, formed by the sedimentary deposits of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers that create a low-lying river delta, is highly vulnerable to climate change. The Deltaic Plain, one of nature's largest, youngest and most active, 80% floodplain with the presence of over 230 major rivers crisscrossing the country and inhabited by 171.2 million people as of 2022, exacerbates threats associated with climate change, including sea-level rise, riverine and coastal flooding, and tropical cyclones. Climate baseline data has already shown a trend of rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. Future projections suggest that these trends will intensify, leading to severe and catastrophic implications for the country.

Climate Hazards in Bangladesh

The World Bank Group's Climate Risk Country Profile exposes Bangladesh's high risk of climate change. The country faces significant economic consequences, with tropical cyclones taxing about $1 billion of the country's financial budget annually. By 2050, climate events could reduce agricultural GDP by a third, impacting almost half of the workforce. An estimated 13.3 million people could become internally displaced refugees within the next 30 years, owing to climate change, with women being disproportionately affected by this. Severe floods could decrease GDP by up to 9%, and environmental degradation and natural disasters are expected to worsen, steering Bangladesh and her population towards an unpredictable future.

Since 1970, the temperature has risen by 0.5°C, and by 2050, it is expected to increase by another 1.5–2°C. A 1°C increase might not seem like much but that much global change is significant because it takes a vast amount of heat to warm all of the oceans, the atmosphere, and the land masses by that much. In the past, a one- to two-degree drop was all it took to plunge the Earth into the Little Ice Age. In addition to this, the precipitation pattern has been unpredictable since 1980, and it is expected that by 2050 it will increase by 20%, which will bring about great challenges for the farming sector. The higher rate of precipitation will amplify the damages caused by floods, with a projected 25% increase in frequency by 2030.

Since the 1970s, Bangladesh has been exposed to a likelihood of climate-related hazards, from cyclones to landslides, exacerbated by climate variability. These risks, which may be expected to be more frequent and severe than ever, pose a serious menace to the country's economy, infrastructure, and populace.

• Cyclones: Cyclones generally hit Bangladesh every two to three years and are responsible for thousands of deaths each time. These incidents account for the loss of about US $1 billion annually on average, disproportionately impacting lower-income households in the southern divisions.
• Floods: Flood water covers up to 25% of the land area during the rainy monsoon season. Major floods like the 1998 flood, which affected more than 2/3 of the country, have resulted in damages worth US $2.2 billion or 4.8% of GDP.
• Droughts: Droughts are the main cause of the loss of three to four million hectares of arable land every year. The regions of Rangpur and Rajshahi are mostly affected by this. In 1997, US $500 million worth of crops was lost due to drought. The future is predicted to make this predicament even tighter. 
• Heat Stress: The higher temperature causes heat stress to rise, which is more noticeable in the western divisions where the night temperature remains high, which in turn negatively impacts people's ability to cool down and rest.
• Landslides: The hilly areas in the eastern divisions are susceptible to landslides, especially during periods of heavy rainfall. Tectonic plate collisions in the region contribute to seismic risk factors, with past events causing casualties and significant damage to buildings and major infrastructure. 

Implications of Climate Change in Bangladesh

The environmental consequences of climate change are already obvious, with the scarcity of natural resources as a case in point and the water availability and Sundarbans mangrove forests being affected. It has a negative impact on vital subsistence sectors, namely farming and fishing. Moreover, the social and economic challenges created by climate change are far-reaching, further complicating the issues of poverty, inequality, and health, and could also result in internal and international migration.

In terms of economics, the contribution is profound, and the agricultural sector, which supports a large number of citizens, is the most affected. Climate change causes lower crop yields and affects arable land, which in turn impacts the country's economic stability. Coastal challenges, for example, sea level rise and salinity intrusion, are becoming the main problem for millions of people living in coastal areas by the day, affecting agriculture, infrastructure, and biodiversity.

The coming years are predicted to be accompanied by a surge in salinity, coral bleaching, and threats to fisheries, which again may lead to an increase in climate refugees and health issues resulting from a growing number of natural disasters with unprecedented intensity.

Climate action in Bangladesh must be swift so that mitigation and adaptation measures can be implemented to bolster resilience through sustainable development and risk management. The country's national adaptation policies as well as the World Bank Group's climate change priorities form the crux of the solution to the challenges.

National Adaptation: Policies and Priorities

The Ministry of Environment, Forestry, and Climate Change spearheads Bangladesh's climate action strategy. The Ministry is taking initiatives such as the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) and the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) to mitigate the effects of climate change. The country ratified the Paris Agreement and updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2020, addressing priority concerns outlined in its Third National Communication to the UNFCCC (NC3).

While Bangladesh has made strides in disaster risk management, further adaptation efforts are imperative, with a transition to a low-carbon development trajectory. The Country Climate and Development Report outlines pivotal actions and financing needs, emphasising:

1. People-centric, Climate-smart Spatial Development: Prioritising poverty reduction and climate resilience in hazard-exposed communities, alongside investments in infrastructure and the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100.
2. Decarbonization of the Economy: Implementing policies to combat air pollution and emissions is vital for reducing mortality rates and enhancing competitiveness in industrial growth.
3. Enabling Environment and Institutional Realignment: Strengthening legislative and institutional capacity, empowering local governance, and fostering partnerships with civil society NGOs while addressing financial sector vulnerabilities. Prioritising impactful actions outlined in the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 and the Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan is of paramount significance at this juncture.

Rashedul Islam Eon is a student of Class-11 at Dhaka Residential Model College. 
 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.