Bangladesh’s geopolitical realignment and strategic imperatives
Following decades of shifting regional dynamics, Bangladesh faces critical geopolitical challenges in redefining its foreign policy, balancing relations with India and China, and addressing domestic reforms. As the nation navigates post-Hasina transitions, strategic imperatives and regional stability remain at the forefront of its path forward
Following the end of British rule in 1947, regional dynamics in South Asia underwent significant transformations. In the aftermath of Pakistan's break-up in 1971, India's approach to regional affairs became more assertive, reflecting its growing confidence in shaping the geopolitical landscape.
During the post-1971 period, neighboring countries such as Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh navigated complex challenges in maintaining their strategic autonomy amid India's expanding regional influence.
As a Muslim-majority nation, Bangladesh faced particular sensitivities in its bilateral relations with India, especially due to the rise of 'Hindutva' ideology within the latter.
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Over the past 15 years, the prolonged tenure of the tyrannical Hasina administration contributed to an increasingly asymmetrical relationship between Dhaka and New Delhi. Following the transition of power, India's engagement with Bangladesh saw shifts that raised concerns over interference in domestic affairs.
In the period following the political transition of July, tensions in bilateral relations have escalated, with India employing various diplomatic and strategic measures short of direct military action. These actions have been perceived as efforts to pressurise the interim administration led by Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus, in collaboration with certain domestic actors.
Recognising the gravity of the situation, the Bangladesh Institute of Policy Studies (BIPS) organised a timely seminar titled "Geopolitical Challenges and Strategic Imperatives for Post-Hasina Bangladesh" at the capital's Jatiya Press Club. Dr CAF Dowlah, a distinguished international scholar and founder Chairperson of the BIPS, outlined some key challenges in this regard.
These are as follows:
Recalibrating foreign policy and India's role
One of the foremost challenges facing post-Hasina Bangladesh is redefining its relationship with India, which remains its most influential neighbour. The Hasina administration fostered deep ties with India, leading to enhanced trade, physical and digital connectivity, and security cooperation.
However, this close alignment also raised concerns, including unequal water-sharing agreements, border tensions, and trade imbalances.
The strategic imperative now is to diversify Bangladesh's foreign policy, reducing overreliance on any single nation. However, this transition must be carefully managed to avoid straining relations with New Delhi, particularly if India perceives such shifts as undermining its geopolitical and economic interests. The position of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will also be crucial, as its stance on Bangladesh's political transition could influence bilateral diplomatic and economic dynamics.
China's expanding influence
China has substantially increased its footprint in Bangladesh through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), infrastructure investments, and deepening trade relations. Under Hasina, Bangladesh sought to balance its ties between India and China, but the post-Hasina government must now reassess these relationships.
Any realignment—whether towards India and the West or further engagement with Beijing—carries inherent risks. A shift toward India and its Western allies could prompt economic countermeasures from China, including potential investment withdrawals. Conversely, a closer alignment with Beijing might strain ties with India and Western partners, complicating Bangladesh's strategic positioning in the region.
US-Bangladesh relations and western engagement
The United States has consistently emphasised human rights, democratic governance, and electoral transparency in its engagement with Bangladesh. The post-Hasina government may face greater Western scrutiny and demands for political and governance reforms. At the same time, Bangladesh must carefully balance its strategic interests within the Indo-Pacific security framework, trade relations, and economic cooperation with the West.
Key considerations in this engagement will include preferential trade agreements, access to US and European markets, and remittance flows from expatriates in Western nations. Bangladesh must navigate these dynamics to secure economic and strategic benefits while preserving its sovereignty in policymaking.
Regional stability and the Rohingya crisis
The Rohingya refugee crisis remains a significant challenge, with unresolved diplomatic tensions between Bangladesh and Myanmar. Despite efforts under the Hasina administration, repatriation agreements with Myanmar have yielded little progress.
Post-Hasina leadership may face additional pressure from the Myanmar junta, requiring robust diplomacy and coordination with ASEAN, the United Nations, and international human rights organisations to craft sustainable solutions. Bangladesh's response will shape its regional standing and influence stability in the Bay of Bengal region.
Domestic political and economic challenges
Internally, political instability, economic volatility, and governance transitions could pose significant risks. A fragmented political environment—marked by competing factions, electoral uncertainties, and governance reforms—may weaken Bangladesh's global engagement. Economic challenges, including capital flight and declining investor confidence, could further complicate efforts to strengthen diplomatic and trade relations.
The ability of Bangladesh's post-Hasina leadership to maintain stability, implement reforms, and foster international confidence will determine its long-term success in securing national security, economic prosperity, and diplomatic leverage on the global stage.
Seminar recommendations
The seminar emphasised the need to strengthen the psychological foundation of the nation. It stressed the importance of national unity imbued with the spirit of patriotism to overcome adversities. Merely holding elections will not suffice. Reforms across all sectors must precede the polls to prevent the return of authoritarianism.
Corruption pervades all levels of society. Following the empowerment of any political party, it is imperative to identify the root causes of corruption in the political arena and other sectors. All stakeholders must seriously consider this issue. Ensuring accountability and transparency in the day-to-day activities of political parties, constitutional agencies, government officials, employees, and other stakeholders is essential.
Additionally, the entire educational system must be radically reformed to help rebuild the country. Without such changes, the new independent Bangladesh, achieved through the sacrifices of thousands of students and ordinary citizens, will not be able to reach its desired goals. Success is the only option.
Prominent participants at the seminar included former diplomats, military strategists, educationists, Supreme Court lawyers, and journalists.
Z A M Khairuzzaman is a senior journalist and columnist. E-mail: [email protected]
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.
