Bangladesh's fertility U-turn: The case for demographic governance

Bangladesh is one of the world's population success stories. The fertility rate stood at 6.4 children per woman in the early 1970s, but was brought down to replacement level (2.2 children per woman) within 40 years through effective family planning, improved healthcare and the greater empowerment of women.

But the latest evidence points to a flip-flop. Bangladesh's TFR has risen from 2.3 in 2019 to 2.4 in 2025, making it the only country in South Asia with an increasing TFR, according to the 2025 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS).

This is not merely an imminent demographic problem — it is a demographic alert.

From global success to emerging concern

Starting in the 1970s, successive governments poured huge resources into community-based family planning. Thousands of Family Welfare Assistants visited almost every household, providing counselling and guidance on contraception and maternal healthcare, while information was disseminated nationwide to virtually all villages.

In addition to gains in female education, reduced child mortality and increased participation of women in the labour force, fertility dropped from over six children per woman in the mid-1970s to near replacement level within just two generations.

However, this progress has since stalled. Almost one quarter of frontline family planning posts are unfilled, while interruptions in the procurement of contraceptives since the onset of Covid-19 have severely affected community outreach efforts.

Public awareness campaigns have almost disappeared, and digital communication has not been able to replace face-to-face counselling. Even as adolescent pregnancy and child marriage rates remain among the highest in South Asia, the use of modern contraceptives is declining.

Missing Link: Demographic governance

Much of the debate over the last few years has focused on the shortage of contraceptives. Continued supply is a vital component, but it is only part of a much bigger problem.

The missing piece is demographic governance — the ability to align fertility, mortality and migration rates, along with ageing and workforce development patterns, with the country's long-term economic and social goals. Population policy should therefore be considered a nexus with national development, not merely a health programme.

Child marriage and adolescent pregnancy remain high, and the use of modern contraceptives has fallen among boys as well as girls, health experts add. These are not only public health issues but governance issues, closely tied to education, gender equality, healthcare, social protection and population policy.

Why the fertility reversal matters

Some may dismiss a rise from 2.3 to 2.4 children per woman as insignificant. For a country of nearly 180 million people, however, even a modest increase means hundreds of thousands of additional births, adding pressure to public services.

As Bangladesh advances towards upper-middle-income status and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, population growth must be matched by productivity, education and employment.

Lessons from Asia and beyond

Several Asian countries demonstrate that demographic policy is a continuous process rather than a one-off campaign.

South Korea successfully reduced fertility during its industrialisation through family planning, female education and healthcare. Today, facing one of the world's lowest fertility rates, it invests heavily in incentives to encourage childbirth.

Singapore has similarly shifted from promoting smaller families to encouraging births through financial incentives, childcare support and housing benefits integrated with labour market policies.

Thailand sustained its demographic gains through continued investment in reproductive healthcare and community education, while Indonesia and Vietnam integrated population policy with local governance, poverty reduction and human capital development.

Despite their different circumstances, these countries share one important lesson: demographic governance never stops. It evolves with changing national priorities.

A national action agenda

Bangladesh now needs to move beyond traditional family planning towards a comprehensive demographic governance strategy.

First, ensure an uninterrupted contraceptive supply through stronger procurement, forecasting and logistics.

Second, fill all vacant Family Welfare Assistant posts to restore effective community outreach. Approximately 45% of Family Welfare Visitor (FWV) posts and 35% of Sub-Assistant Community Medical Officer (SACMO) posts are also vacant, weakening supervision and service delivery across the system.

Third, modernise reproductive health communication through digital platforms, telemedicine, artificial intelligence and targeted social media, while strengthening community counselling.

Fourth, make reducing child marriage and adolescent pregnancy a national priority through stronger law enforcement, expanded girls' education and greater economic opportunities for young women.

Fifth, revitalise the National Population Council to conduct annual demographic reviews aligned with national development planning. Ensuring birth registration from the outset will help put accountability in proper order.

Sixth, establish district-level demographic dashboards under the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and the Planning Commission to monitor key indicators and support evidence-based policymaking.

Finally, integrate demographic considerations into healthcare, education, employment, migration, urbanisation, climate adaptation and social protection, so that population trends inform every major development decision.

From family planning to demographic governance

The challenge today is not to revive the family-planning campaigns of the past. It is to build a modern system of demographic governance that aligns population change with national development.

Countries that anticipate demographic change shape their future. Bangladesh's next demographic success will depend not simply on managing population growth, but on governing demographic change wisely.

Md Nazrul Islam is a Former Executive Chairman of BEPZA, a retired Major General of the Bangladesh Army, and a PhD researcher on technology, workforce transformation, and industrial competitiveness.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.