Last 16 permutations: Argentina, Germany and Belgium face nervy matchday three

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TBS Report
29 November, 2022, 03:35 pm
Last modified: 29 November, 2022, 03:45 pm
Here, The Business Standard (TBS) with the help of FIFA+ takes a look at the permutations riding on the final selection of group-stage action in the Middle East.

France, Brazil and Portugal are the only three sides to have already secured World Cup knockout football after matchday two, with numerous teams facing a nervy final matchday as they bid to reach the round of 16 in Qatar.

Pre-tournament favourites Brazil breezed through Group G with wins over Serbia and Switzerland, while France became the first reigning world champions to escape the group stage since the Selecao in 2006.

Portugal made sure of their round-of-16 spot after Monday's Group H victory over Uruguay, yet the likes of England, Spain, Germany, and Argentina all need results on matchday three to progress.

The Netherlands are another big name that have yet to confirm their place in the latter stages of FIFA's top tournament, while Belgium face a tense Group F clash with Croatia to avoid an early exit.

Here, The Business Standard (TBS) with the help of FIFA+ takes a look at the permutations riding on the final selection of group-stage action in the Middle East.

Group A

The Netherlands are largely in control of Group A, needing to just avoid defeat against the already eliminated hosts, Qatar. They will still qualify if they lose, provided Ecuador beat Senegal.

Ecuador need to win or draw to qualify. They remain in contention to qualify if they lose and Qatar beat the Netherlands.

Senegal need to win to qualify but remain in contention if they draw and Qatar beat the Netherlands.

Qatar are already eliminated.

Group B

A win or a draw is enough for England against fierce rivals Wales. Yet, the Three Lions would still progress as long as they avoid a four-goal defeat against Wales, whose goal difference is six fewer.

Iran are guaranteed to qualify with victory over the United States, who know anything other than a win against Carlos Queiroz's side will see them eliminated from the competition. A draw will also take the Iranians through provided Wales do not beat England (in which case goal difference will come into play).

Wales must win to have any chance of progressing.

Group C

All four teams can still make it out of an enticing Group C.

Argentina must win to be sure of progressing, while a draw would be enough if Mexico and Saudi Arabia also draw. However, a draw coupled with a Saudi Arabia victory would see La Albiceleste knocked out, and a draw coupled with a Mexico win takes the group to goal difference. Argentina are out if they lose.

Saudi Arabia will reach the Round of 16 if they win. A draw would be enough if Poland defeat Argentina, but if both matches are tied, they will go out. Should Argentina defeat Poland and Saudi Arabia draw, progress will be decided on goal difference between the European and Middle East sides. Defeat would see them knocked out.

Poland will be through with a win or a draw, but would be knocked out by a defeat coupled with a Saudi Arabia victory. If Poland lose and Saudi Arabia draw, the two teams will have to be separated by goal difference. If Poland lose and Mexico win, their fate will also be decided on goal difference.

Mexico must win to have any chance of staying in the competition. They will be sure to go through if Poland win. If they win and Argentina and Poland draw, it will come down to goal difference with Argentina. Should Argentina win, goal difference will be required to separate Mexico and Poland.

Group D

 

France are already in the round-of-16 draw and will top Group D as long as they do not lose to Tunisia and Australia do not defeat Denmark, otherwise, the Socceroos would move level on six points with Les Bleus.

While victory would take Australia through, Graham Arnold's side would still reach the knockout stage with a draw unless Tunisia beat France, which would see Jalel Kadri's men progress on goal difference.

Denmark would grab qualification with a win over Australia unless Tunisia triumph over France, which would leave goal difference or goals scored to separate the Carthage Eagles and Kasper Hjulmand's men.

Group E

Spain will qualify for the Round of 16 with a win or a draw. Defeat to Japan will leave them relying on their currently superior goal difference to progress unless Costa Rica beat Germany, in which case Luis Enrique's side will be out.

Japan can go through with a victory against Spain, while a draw, coupled with deadlock in Costa Rica v Germany clash, will ensure they progress. They will go out if they are beaten by Spain, or if the match ends in a draw and Costa Rica triumph against Germany. Goal difference will be required to decide their fate if they draw and Germany are victorious.

Costa Rica can reach the last 16 by defeating Germany. A draw for Luis Fernando Suarez's side would also guarantee a spot in the next phase if Spain overcome Japan, but if the current group leaders are beaten then goal difference comes into play. A draw in both games or a defeat for Costa Rica puts them out.

Germany must pick up three points to stay in contention. Victory over Costa Rica coupled with a win for Spain against Japan will see them qualify. A draw between Luis Enrique's side and the Samurai Blue, or a win for Japan, would take the equation to goal difference. All other results would see Hansi Flick's men out of the competition.

Group F

 

Croatia will pass through Group F if they avoid defeat against Belgium, who require victory against the 2018 runners-up to guarantee a place in the round of 16.

Such a win for Belgium would leave Croatia needing already eliminated Canada to overcome Morocco, with goal difference coming into play to separate Zlatko Dalic's side from the Atlas Lions.

A draw is likely not enough for Belgium. They would need Morocco to lose to Canada and then rely on goal difference, though Walid Regragui's men (+2) hold the advantage over Roberto Martinez's side (-1) in the decisive metric.

Morocco would progress with victory over Canada, while a defeat would see Regragui's side reliant on Belgium beating Croatia for goal difference to be decisive between Dalic's men and the Atlas Lions for second.

Group G

Brazil have secured knockout football and will finish as Group G winners with anything other than a defeat against Cameroon, who need a victory against Tite's side and results to go their way to make the last 16.

Rigobert Song's men would be eliminated if they do not win, though victory is not guaranteed to secure progression as Switzerland could play out a high-scoring draw with Serbia to go through on goals scored, which is used if sides cannot be separated on goal difference – Cameroon are currently on -1 and Switzerland level in the latter metric.

The somewhat expected scenario of Cameroon losing to Brazil would see Serbia and Switzerland become a winner-takes-all clash. 

Dragan Stojkovic's side need a victory to progress in that instance, while a draw would be enough for Switzerland. Goal difference would be required if Serbia (-2) and Cameroon (-1) both win their final encounters.

Group H

Portugal are already through and would top Group H by avoiding defeat against South Korea, who could still make a late charge for the round-of-16 stage should the result between Uruguay and Ghana go their way.

The permutations are straightforward for Uruguay and South Korea, who must win to avoid elimination, though the qualification is not assured even with victory.

Both teams would be level on four points with victories, again leading to a goal difference to separate. Yet, if Ghana beat Uruguay then South Korea's result against Portugal will prove irrelevant for Paulo Bento's side.

A draw for Ghana and a win for South Korea would also see a goal difference required to split the two sides, with Bento's men trailing the Black Stars by one in that metric, which could mean goals scored comes into it.

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