The economy here is vibrant: Richard Quest

CNN's journalist Richard Quest spoke to The Business Standard Editor Inam Ahmed in an interview on the sidelines of the Bangladesh Business Summit 2023. Below is a redacted version of the interview.

You have a very busy schedule. Yet, you decided to come to Dhaka. What made you think that you should come to Dhaka?

I was invited to The Bangladesh Business Summit. I recognised that I had not been to Bangladesh. 

And the economy here is vibrant. It is a relatively small geographical country with a huge population that has a disproportionate impact on things like garments and textile management. I always think it is best to come and see things for yourself. 

So I came here and I have been very pleased to be at the summit today. 

I am also interested in the way in which all subjects were discussed today; nothing was off limits. And I think that really speaks volumes [of] the strengths in what is here. 

I was watching one of your shows, where you said, "Your dream should be bigger than your ambition." If I ask you to dream about Bangladesh, what would it be?

It's a really difficult question and I'll tell you why. 

I hear people talking about Digital Bangladesh, Smart Bangladesh, among other things. 

But then you have to juxtapose it with a certain physical reality, which is, in many cases, poverty, even though it is less than it was. 

But if you just drive from the airport to here and you just look at the buildings, the roads and the traffic jam, it's fine to talk about, and I understand the argument, the rising tide lifts all boats, [and] I understand that it does not happen overnight. 

But I think you have to balance the talk of a great future, digital, smart economy with the reality that there are basic infrastructure issues that also have to be solved at the same time. 

Is it only infrastructure that you are worried about which we should take care of?

Well, I've always found it very dangerous to visit somebody else's house and then start criticising the wallpaper as soon as I walk inside. I think Bangladesh knows exactly what its problems are.

There are issues…of obviously infrastructure and of investment, and it is how you grow this economy so it becomes inclusive. 

There are lots of countries in the world that are now obsessed with a digital economy. But, with the digital economy… [other issues needing focus like] gender equality and rights, LGBT issues, these have to be put on the agenda; education, proper healthcare, socialised healthcare – all these issues. 

You cannot become obsessed with this [a smartphone]. You cannot believe that the be all and end all of life is that everybody now has a smartphone.

And I think what I see time and again, I see it in certain parts of Africa, that people are extolling the virtues of the fact that everyone's connected. 

Well, that's all fair enough. But if you haven't got food to eat, you haven't got clean water to drink, and you haven't got healthcare to look after you, then frankly this is a tool that is not going to be terribly important.

Suppose you have been given a cheque of $100 million, and asked to invest in Bangladesh. What would you do?

I think if one were to invest heavily in Bangladesh, they would need to do so in a variety of baskets that would include some of the more advanced textile production. And I don't mean mass garment…RMG is great. But,  RMG won't see you through whatever. 

The most advanced technology and textiles at the moment is in China. 

So, fundamentally, you are talking about textile… 

If I'm gonna invest in textiles, it'll be in new technology stuff. Then you've got IT. 

And there are some very impressive things about Bangladesh. My phone, for example, has worked throughout absolutely, good signal. If I do a speed test on the uplink megabytes, it'll be good. 

So the right bits of modern infrastructure are being put in place. A new terminal at - the airport, the skyway, the metro - they are the right bits being put in place.

But it will take generations.

Let's take a little trip down memory lane. You've interviewed many heads of states and big corporate figures. What was your most memorable, intriguing interview or story you have ever covered?

The most memorable ones are the people who've got something to tell you. 

And the Dalai Lama, obviously. Sir Richard Branson is always very good because he's very honest. These are honest people. 

And I don't mean the others are dishonest, but the best interviewee is somebody who lets you in.

Years ago, I interviewed a man, Patrick Swayze. Patrick Swayze was this actor and dancer who did Dirty Dancing. 

I also interviewed Hugh Hefner once.
And when I asked, you know, the questions about what makes a beautiful woman…It became clear that he really thought about it, really giving it a lot of thought.

The best interviewees are those that have really thought about. 

They know what they want to do and why they want to do it. 

You started law in Leeds University, which is also my University. Why did you not pursue a career in law?

I've did university hospital radio, which is what we have in Britain: little stations that just broadcast the hospital volunteers. 

I've done BBC Local Radio, I've done university radio and when I went to the United States, I went to a university in Nashville, Tennessee, where all the alma mater had scholarships and exchanges.

It was a question of what do I want when I get to 40…and regret not doing it?

And I knew I could get to 40 and regret not being a lawyer or barrister, but I really wanted to try to be a journalist.

And I remember my late father saying: "The problem with being a journalist, Richard, is you'll have the best dinner party stories, but the smallest car parked outside." 

Now, he wasn't quite right on that in total, but I know what he meant and he insisted I get my legal qualification first. It was wise, it was correct, and I did it.

I also think laws are a really good degree for journalism. Why? Because of critical thinking. 

You learn that there's two sides to every argument. 

You soon learn in law that everybody has a defense. It may not be a very good one.

Let's take the prime minister here.

So my notes…tell me that governments are becoming more authoritarian and there's a lack of democracy, that rallies have been banned, etc. 

It goes with how this government after 14 years is too authoritarian.

But I will ask the prime minister that tomorrow, and I'm sure she's going to give me an entire raft of reasons why they've done what they've done. The ministers did it today. 

There's always two sides, true, but as a journalist, you and I have to be informed so that we can challenge both sides.

You have interviewed a lot of corporate heads. What makes someone a good business leader? why do businesses succeed or fail?

Well, a lot of luck. You have to be the CEO at the right time. 

But I think it is the vision.

But vision without the ability to execute is just nonsense. One of the greatest I ever interviewed was a guy called Gordon Bethune. Gordon Bethune was the CEO of Continental Airlines in the US when it was in bankruptcy. He took them from worst to first.

Because he created a vision. 

Again, you have to create a vision that is realisable, and you have to get people to go along with it, and if you're the CEO, you have to remember that. 

That's it.

Quite often, after a visionary, you get a technocrat because the company just needs to be run. It doesn't need to have the chairs moved around again, it just needs to be right.

So let's look at the world economy. We had the Covid then the Ukraine war - the double whammy - and now there is a lot of tension about China and Taiwan. How do you look at the global economy at the end of the year? 

This is the most difficult economic time that we've seen. 

That's not me. That is all the top economists I speak to. 

They all say the same thing. This is the most difficult economic time which we have had and the reason is the complexity of the issues. So let's think about it.

Do you think that the war is going to end anytime soon?

No.  

Let's just get through. We still have high wage inflation in the US. We have low unemployment so we still have a very tight labour market, which is keeping inflation higher. 

We've had 425 basis points of interest rate rises and more to come. So how do you square that circle? 

They will increase rates again and again.

And they are predicted to hit 6% or something?  

We thought the terminal rate might be 5, but I think the terminal rate could be 6.5%. 

But how do you get that much monetary tightening and don't tip the economy into recession? 

So the Fed is looking at the latest numbers and it's saying, after this much tightening, we should be seeing a slow down of inflation. 

We've seen inflation come off the top — from 8-9% to 5%, 6%, but do you continue pushing it down to 2%? 

That is the big debate now in economics. 

Once you've got inflation down to 4%, do you keep ratcheting up to get it down to 2%? Or do you pivot and say that's OK? That is the question and we don't know the answer.  

The Fed rate hike is really having impacts on the emerging economies. 

Completely, absolutely devastating. It's devastating for those countries that borrow in dollars.
It's devastating because it creates a sucking effect of investment income that goes to higher yields elsewhere. It's devastating because of the way it disrupts the bond markets and the others. So absolutely, it is terrible. 

But, the Fed will say, if they don't manage the US economy, then the emerging markets will be even worse off.

The Fed is not there to help the emerging markets.

How do you look at 2024?

We're not even halfway through 2023, so 2024 is the year of recovery. 

If rates carry on as they are, I would say you start seeing some light at the end of the tunnel. I don't mean cuts in interest rates, right. 

That will happen in 2024 maybe.

But you will start to see a base building at the back of this year and into next year.

The mode of business has changed and new things are coming in like the AI. So how do you look at the future of business?

I think the influence of AI is phenomenal and horrific at the same time.
So we had the 4th Industrial Revolution before the pandemic and the big fear then was about the actual jobs that will be lost. 

For instance, truck drivers with autonomous vehicles, people doing manual inputting, even Chat GPT can write for you, getting rid of a lot of people. 

So that's very worrying for many economies, because what are these people going to do? 

We can't reskill fast enough. There aren't jobs necessary to reskill them fast enough, and the jobs that are reskillable, they're also being taken away.
I don't want to be pessimistic because its a great opportunity as well, but for policymakers it is very difficult.