Killing the leader may not be enough to stamp out Islamic State
Skip to main content
  • Home
  • Economy
  • Stocks
  • Analysis
  • World+Biz
  • Sports
  • Features
  • Epaper
  • More
    • Subscribe
    • COVID-19
    • Bangladesh
    • Splash
    • Videos
    • Games
    • Long Read
    • Infograph
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Thoughts
    • Podcast
    • Quiz
    • Tech
    • Archive
    • Trial By Trivia
    • Magazine
    • Supplement
  • বাংলা
The Business Standard

Sunday
August 14, 2022

Sign In
Subscribe
  • Home
  • Economy
  • Stocks
  • Analysis
  • World+Biz
  • Sports
  • Features
  • Epaper
  • More
    • Subscribe
    • COVID-19
    • Bangladesh
    • Splash
    • Videos
    • Games
    • Long Read
    • Infograph
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Thoughts
    • Podcast
    • Quiz
    • Tech
    • Archive
    • Trial By Trivia
    • Magazine
    • Supplement
  • বাংলা
SUNDAY, AUGUST 14, 2022
Killing the leader may not be enough to stamp out Islamic State

World+Biz

Reuters
29 October, 2019, 11:25 am
Last modified: 29 October, 2019, 01:24 pm

Related News

  • Al Qaeda, IS gaining strength in Afghanistan: UNSC report
  • ISIS leader in Syria killed in drone strike -US military
  • ‘You cannot stop cyber-attacks. Our target is to minimise the damage’ 
  • Man and two ISIS-sympathizing teens allegedly plotted a ‘spring break’ Chicago mosque attack
  • Analysis: ISIS raid gives Biden a foreign policy win as Ukraine, midterms loom

Killing the leader may not be enough to stamp out Islamic State

Analysts in the region doubt the loss of an iS leader will affect the group's capabilities

Reuters
29 October, 2019, 11:25 am
Last modified: 29 October, 2019, 01:24 pm
File Photo: A man purported to be the reclusive leader of the militant Islamic State Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has made what would be his first public appearance at a mosque in the centre of Iraq's second city, Mosul, according to a video recording posted on the Internet on July 5, 2014, in this still image taken from video. Social Media Website via Reuters TV
File Photo: A man purported to be the reclusive leader of the militant Islamic State Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has made what would be his first public appearance at a mosque in the centre of Iraq's second city, Mosul, according to a video recording posted on the Internet on July 5, 2014, in this still image taken from video. Social Media Website via Reuters TV

The killing of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is of considerable importance, experts believe, but the underlying reasons for his jihadist group's existence remain and attacks in the Middle East and beyond are not likely to stop.

Baghdadi's death at the hands of the United States is likely to cause Islamic State to splinter, leaving whoever emerges as its new leader with the task of pulling the ultra-hardline group back together as a fighting force.

Whether the loss of its leader will in itself affect the group's capabilities is open to doubt, analysts in the region say. Even if it does face difficulties in the leadership transition, the underlying ideology and the sectarian hatred it promoted remains attractive to many.

Where once they rode around in armoured vehicles, brandished rifles, flew black flags and indulged in acts of spectacular cruelty, the Sunni Muslim militants are now prisoners or scattered stragglers whose leader was chased down in a tunnel during a raid by American special forces.

"Operationally it doesn't affect much, they are already broken and globally their attacks have receded," said Rashad Ali, a resident senior fellow at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a London-based think-tank. "They are mostly concentrated in the Iraqi-Syria borderlands."

"It doesn't make much of a difference other than the symbolism," he said. "If you think taking out one terrorist (matters) while failing to address the root causes that led this ideology to take hold, you are mistaken."

But some of those grievances are very much on the show today. Sunni Muslims in Iraq are angered at their treatment by a ruling Shi'ite elite they see as under the influence of Iran and the Iranian-backed militias that now roam their provinces unchecked.

Recruitment

In Syria, recruitment to groups such as Islamic State is encouraged by the killing of Sunnis by Syrian government forces backed by Iran and Russia.

Islamic State's effectiveness arises from its members' loyalty to its ultra-fanatical Islamist ideology, and this may not be much affected by the killing of its leader, said Fadhil Abu Ragheef, an Iraqi political analyst and security expert.

He said Islamic State's 9-man Shura Council, or leadership group, was expected to meet and appoint a leader from among five candidates.

Among the front runners are Abu Abdullah al-Jizrawi, a Saudi, and Abdullah Qaradash, an Iraqi and one of Baghdadi's right-hand men, also a former army officer under Saddam Hussein. Also mentioned is Abu Othman al-Tunisi, a Tunisian.

"The new leader will start working to pull together the group's power by relying on new recruits and fighters who fled the prisons in Syria. He is expected to launch a series of retaliatory attacks for the killing of Baghdadi," said Abu Ragheef.

It is possible that whoever takes over as the head of the group, which experts say has been beset by internal disputes, will cause it to splinter within months because he is unacceptable on grounds of nationality to some factions.

"For sure they will fight among themselves over resources. I predict the Iraqi faction will win because they have more money," said Iraqi analyst Hisham al-Hashemi, an expert on jihadist groups.

A security source with knowledge of militant groups in Iraq said the killing of Baghdadi would splinter the group's command structure because of differences between senior figures and lack of confidence among group members who were forced to go underground when the caliphate collapsed.

"We are aware that killing Baghdadi will not lead to the disappearance of Islamic State because eventually, they will pick someone for the job," the source said. "But at the same time whoever follows Baghdadi will not be in a position to keep the group united."

Operations

The new leader will attempt to restructure the group by encouraging followers to launch operations not only in Iraq but in other countries to raise morale among existing and new followers, the source said.

By franchising its name, Islamic State has attracted followers in Africa, Asia and Europe. Incidents such as one in London, where attackers used easily obtained weapons such as motor vehicles and knives, show that lack of organisational backing is not an obstacle.

In South-East Asia, where Islamic State has spread its influence, officials believe the group's ideas will have to be fought even after Baghdadi's death.

"His death will have little impact here as the main problem remains the spread of the Islamic State ideology," Malaysian police counter-terrorism chief Ayob Khan Mydin Pitchay told Reuters.

"What we are most worried about now are 'lone wolf' attacks and those who are self-radicalised through the internet. We are still seeing the spread of IS teachings online. IS publications and magazines from years ago are being reproduced and re-shared," he said.

In Iraq, where Baghdadi proclaimed his caliphate from the Grand al-Nuri Mosque in 2014, authorities have pursued a policy of taking out senior Islamic State figures as an effective way of keeping the group on the back foot.

Hashemi argues that more is needed.

"They have the ability to regroup. The way to stop that is through real fostering of democracy and civil society, truly addressing grievances, in short, creating an environment that repels terrorism," he said.

"Killing leaders is definitely a good thing but it does not prevent their return, only creating such an environment does," he added.

Al-Baghdadi / IS leader Baghdadi / ISIS

Comments

While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderation decisions are subjective. Published comments are readers’ own views and The Business Standard does not endorse any of the readers’ comments.

Top Stories

  • Excess liquidity Tk2 lakh cr again but banks have little in hand
    Excess liquidity Tk2 lakh cr again but banks have little in hand
  • Photo: Collected
    Extract more local gas, explore solar power: Experts
  • Rising egg prices hit low-income people’s protein intake
    Rising egg prices hit low-income people’s protein intake

MOST VIEWED

  • A view shows the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in the course of Ukraine-Russia conflict outside the Russian-controlled city of Enerhodar in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, 4 August, 2022. Photo: Reuters
    Ukraine warns of fresh 'provocations', shelling near occupied nuclear plant
  • New Jersey Police officers stand guard near the building where alleged attacker of Salman Rushdie, Hadi Matar, lives in Fairview, New Jersey, U.S., August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz
    Man suspected of attacking Salman Rushdie charged with attempted murder, assault
  • Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., June 22, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
    Global stocks rise, US yields fall as inflation slows
  • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra. Photo: Collected
    US says India hid Russian origin of fuel shipped to US, India central banker says
  • The Fitch Ratings logo is seen at their offices at Canary Wharf financial district in London,Britain, March 3, 2016. REUTERS/Reinhard Krause
    Ukraine in default according to Fitch and S&P
  • Customers shop for vegetables at the Central de Abastos Market in Mexico City, Mexico.Photographer: Alejandro Cegarra/Bloomberg
    Latin America led world into high-rate era. Now it’s stuck there

Related News

  • Al Qaeda, IS gaining strength in Afghanistan: UNSC report
  • ISIS leader in Syria killed in drone strike -US military
  • ‘You cannot stop cyber-attacks. Our target is to minimise the damage’ 
  • Man and two ISIS-sympathizing teens allegedly plotted a ‘spring break’ Chicago mosque attack
  • Analysis: ISIS raid gives Biden a foreign policy win as Ukraine, midterms loom

Features

Toes and talons of Shikra. Photo; Enam Ul Haque

Shikra: A leopard with wings!

14h | Panorama
Photo: Noor-A-Alam

Around the world in 10 days: A chance to taste global cuisines

13h | Food
Lobbyists float ludicrous arguments to prevent tobacco control act amendment

Lobbyists float ludicrous arguments to prevent tobacco control act amendment

15h | Panorama
Will US-China tensions boil over?

Will US-China tensions boil over?

13h | Panorama

More Videos from TBS

Eggs are selling at record prices

Eggs are selling at record prices

3h | Videos
Dollar price increase affecting Karnaphuli tunnel construction

Dollar price increase affecting Karnaphuli tunnel construction

4h | Videos
Climate crisis a blessing in disguise to them

Climate crisis a blessing in disguise to them

5h | Videos
Growing rice crisis shows how important food self-sufficiency is for Bangladesh

Growing rice crisis shows how important food self-sufficiency is for Bangladesh

6h | Videos

Most Read

1
Dollar crisis: BB orders removal of 6 banks’ treasury chiefs 
Banking

Dollar crisis: BB orders removal of 6 banks’ treasury chiefs 

2
Photo: Collected
Transport

Will Tokyo’s traffic model solve Dhaka’s gridlocks?

3
Diesel price hiked by Tk34 per litre, Octane by Tk46
Energy

Diesel price hiked by Tk34 per litre, Octane by Tk46

4
Representational Image. Photo: Collected
Bangladesh

Air passengers should plan extra commute time to airport: DMP

5
Arrest warrant against Habib Group chairman, 4 others 
Crime

Arrest warrant against Habib Group chairman, 4 others 

6
File Photo: State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Nasrul Hamid
Energy

All factories to remain closed once a week under rationing system

EMAIL US
[email protected]
FOLLOW US
WHATSAPP
+880 1847416158
The Business Standard
  • About Us
  • Contact us
  • Sitemap
  • Privacy Policy
  • Comment Policy
Copyright © 2022
The Business Standard All rights reserved
Technical Partner: RSI Lab

Contact Us

The Business Standard

Main Office -4/A, Eskaton Garden, Dhaka- 1000

Phone: +8801847 416158 - 59

Send Opinion articles to - [email protected]

For advertisement- [email protected]