Which way will the Middle East lean?

The Middle East has long been the centre of geopolitical priorities for the United States and for the most part, the global hegemon had maintained a sphere of influence over the major power in the region. The US fostered the rise of Israel and protected it from regional rivals with its annual $3 billion aid, while also forging deep strategic relationships with regional players like Saudi Arabia.

At the peak of US hegemony in the region, the US dethroned Saddam Hussein from power and reportedly orchestrated the Arab Spring, which resulted in the violent removal of regional stalwarts like Muammar Gaddafi, Hosne Mobarak and Ben Ali, who stood in the way of unilateral US dominance within the region. 

Apart from the Islamic revolution in 1979 or failing to remove Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, the US had a comfortable position of power in the region. 

But that may be changing. 

As is the case with most regions in the world, China is vying to become a regional hegemon in the Middle East. At least, that is what the US believes. 

China positioning itself as a peacekeeper

What's apparent, however, is China's economic presence in the region and its ambition to position itself as a peacekeeper, a role traditionally held by the US. This intention is best exemplified by China brokering a resumption of diplomatic relations between bitter regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran in April 2023. Experts also believe that such a truce may also bring an end to the decade-long humanitarian crisis in Yemen.

And China appears to have loftier goals. Beijing started the Global Security Initiative in February, right before the Iran-Saudi talks ended, with the goal of "peacefully resolving differences and disputes between countries through dialogue and consultation."

For instance, a few weeks following the Iran-Saudi talks, China's new foreign minister, Qin Gang, claimed that Beijing is willing to mediate peace talks between Israel and Palestine.

All of this is occuring at a time when many observers believe that the US, traditionally the top power broker in the Middle East, is gradually losing its influence. Among other things, the US's credibility has been damaged by its choice to abandon the Iran nuclear agreement, its erratic relations with Saudi Arabia, failure to prevent the return of Bashar-al-Assad, its protracted occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan, and its disorganised exit from those countries. Domestic politics in the US have also kept the country preoccupied, as has the public's rising scepticism over the nation's decades-long position as a global policeman.

China, on the other hand, is all about investment and non-interference. China does not want to coerce its regional partners to choose allies but asks them to cooperate. China offers increased economic opportunities, access to its markets, access to BRI investment and infrastructural as well as energy cooperation. 

In doing so, China minds its own business and refrains from any sort of moral posturing and virtue signalling. Moreover, China's economic rise and ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have opened new avenues for economic cooperation with the region, allowing Middle Eastern countries to diversify their economies and reduce dependence on oil. For instance, in 2022, China signed a 25-year-long, $400 billion trade deal with Iran. So, it makes sense for the Middle Eastern countries to cosy up to China. And that is making the US quite nervous.

Why the US cannot afford to lose the Middle East

The Middle East is a crucial region for the United States, with abundant oil reserves, geopolitical significance, and ongoing regional challenges. Energy security is a key driver of US engagement in the region, as it aims to secure a stable and reliable supply of oil for its economy. The US also maintains strong alliances with Israel, ensuring Israel's security and promoting a two-state solution. Moreover, the US's role as the regional police also means that the military industrial complex in the US can sell hundreds of billions of dollars worth of modern weapons and weapons technology to these Middle-Eastern countries. 

Given China's history to take control of key ports like Gwadar in Pakistan and Hambantota in Sri Lanka, in the name of debt restructuring, the US believes that China is going to use its investment in the Middle East to get a strong foothold in energy politics. China's presence in the Middle East would also bring in Russia, which remains afloat despite a plethora of sanctions from the West, largely thanks to China. 

Putin has already won the war in Syria and has reinstated Bashar-al-Assad to power, delivering a massive blow to the United States. China entering this mess with all of its economic and diplomatic might only makes it more difficult for the US to bully the Middle East.

Welcome to a multi-polar world?

No. Not yet. No matter what anyone suggests, the US remains, by far, the strongest and most technologically advanced military and navy in the world. And its military and technology will keep it one step ahead of Russia and China, at least for now. The US also has lots of military bases stationed in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Oman etc. 

Moreover, the US remains the largest economy in the world and the largest market for Middle-Eastern oil, gas and other natural resources. It is also the largest source of investment for the Middle-Eastern countries. No country would be foolish enough to antagonise such a formidable military and economic superpower. 

That being said, there is no denying the fact that China is serious about its geopolitical ambitions. From bullying neighbouring countries in the South China Sea, to brokering rapprochement between bitter rivals, the US can no longer ignore China as a threat to its plans for global domination.