We may never know of Covid origin. Is that okay?

Nearly four years ago, Bangladesh issued Covid lockdown in late March 2020. By then, much of North America, Europe, China and elsewhere were already living under the 'new normal' for a couple of weeks or longer.

The pandemic changed lives, ended lives and caused fear and hysteria en masse across the world. In fact, the virus changed the world systems (from supply chains to welfare, etc) that year.

In early 2021, India saw its second and much more deadly Covid outbreak. The stats, widespread deaths and images that emerged, again, painted a sobering, grim reality. This time it was closer to home. 

According to WHO, Bangladesh lost over 29,000 people to Covid since the outbreak in 2020. 

At the same time, Bangladesh may have fared better than some other countries in terms of cases reported (indicating virus control), Covid deaths (2021 was a deadlier year for Bangladesh as well) and vaccinations (people's willingness to get vaccinated). 

Overall, Covid caused nearly seven million deaths across the globe over its active years. 

But at the root of it all, the origin of the virus remains a mystery. 

Since the beginning, two theories have existed – a spillover (the virus originating in the live  Huanan market) versus a lab leak (Wuhan Institute of Virology) in Wuhan, China. These two places are miles apart. 

You may remember pangolins rearing their heads into the conversation. This is part of the spillover theory, well for the most part.  Let me explain.

When the virus broke out and transcended borders, scientists, virologists, and government agencies frantically started to look for answers, starting with the origin of the virus.

China's reluctance or for the lack of a better word, rigid response to allowing foreigners to investigate and find the origin of the virus did not help matters. 

Word spread on the spillover theory, much like how the virus was believed to have "jumped" from bats to people in live markets in Wuhan.

Apart from the racism that also spread in the United States targeting Asians and blaming them for the Covid pandemic, soon, the word 'pangolins' also spread with the spillover theory. 

Five of the world's top virologists published a letter explaining why animal origin was more likely in February 2020. This went on to be republished as "The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2," in the journal Nature.

"Its [the research paper's] basic argument was that any lab trying to make a super-dangerous virus would start with the backbone of one already known to be pretty dangerous, like 2002 SARS. 

This new virus was so different from SARS, especially in its receptor binding domain — the crucial bit where the spike protein binds to the ACE2 receptor on the surface of a human cell — that logically no one would have chosen it.

The binding domain was much closer to one that had been recently found in pangolin viruses, so it was likely the pandemic virus had jumped from bats to an animal — perhaps pangolins but not necessarily," wrote Donald G. McNeil Jr, former NYT health and science reporter on Medium.  

The spillover theory included possibilities of the virus transmitting from a bat to a pangolin to people. 

If a lot, not all, reports on the origin of Covid are followed — a trend emerges. The two theories are also backed predominantly by two sects of professionals in the US. 

For instance, scientists published two extensive, peer-reviewed papers in Science in July 2022, offering the strongest evidence to date that the Covid-19 pandemic originated in animals at a market in Wuhan, China. 

"Specifically, they [the peer-reviewed papers in Science] conclude that the coronavirus most likely jumped from a caged wild animal into people at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, where a huge Covid-19 outbreak began in December 2019," wrote Michaeleen Doucleff, a correspondent for NPR's Science Desk.

In the 2023 NPR report, Michaeleen also said that the "virologists who study pandemic origins are much less divided than the US intelligence community. They say there is "very convincing" data and "overwhelming evidence" pointing to an animal origin."

Then there was evidence suggesting racoon dogs — as part of the spillover theory. In the May 2023 NYT story, the reporters wrote, that Chinese investigators "uploaded data from their 1 January 2020, search in the Huanan market — after a delay of more than three years" on a database in which genetic sequences of coronaviruses are shared, and researchers found it and informed WHO. This new data included DNA from a wild species called the racoon dog.

However,  the scientists who had published studies pointing to the Huanan market, said in the New York Times story, that their new findings were consistent with the spillover hypothesis. 

In 2021, the veteran health reporter Donald G. McNeil Jr wrote, "I had been sceptical of the "lab leak" theory because animal spillover is such an obvious answer. Genetics has proven that almost every disease mankind has faced jumped from animals: bubonic plague from rodents, measles probably from cows, whooping cough maybe from dogs, and so on."

While perhaps evidence and experts point to the spillover theory more and more over the years, the distinct division between the theory advocates holds water. 

In 2023, NPR reported, that the US intelligence community still has no consensus about the origin of SARS-CoV-2. Four of the eight intelligence agencies lean toward a natural origin for the virus, with "low confidence," while two of them — the DOE and the Federal Bureau of Investigation — support a lab origin, with the latter having "moderate confidence" about its conclusion.

The lab leak theory is primarily and essentially based on how tightly controlled the Chinese scientists were in terms of how much they could speak to foreigners, how access to the labs or sites (live markets) was restricted to outsiders, how data by the Chinese officials about the virus was shared with delays and more incidents indicating the lack of free flow of information between China and the rest of the world (mainly the US). 

In May 2021, several months after he took office, President Biden ordered the nation's intelligence agencies to conduct a 90-day inquiry into the cause of the pandemic. The findings of that review were released in August 2021 and reaffirmed what the agencies had previously said: Both the natural origins theory and the lab leak theory were plausible, according to The New York Times. 

More recently, in February 2023, the US Department of Energy shifted its stance on the origin. It now concludes, with "low confidence," that the pandemic most likely arose from a laboratory leak in Wuhan, China, according to the NPR report. 

It also said, according to the federal government, "low confidence" means "the information used in the analysis is scant, questionable, fragmented, or that solid analytical conclusions cannot be inferred from the information." The agency based its conclusion on classified evidence that isn't available to the public. 

Why the origin matters 

The historic pandemic which brought the world to a literal standstill is naturally a matter of scientific inquiry. The origin is of course important for several reasons in the context of studying and preventing future pandemics.

For instance, knowing how a virus initially infects humans can help in implementing measures to prevent similar outbreaks in the future. Identifying the source of the virus can aid in implementing targeted interventions, such as better surveillance and control measures.

There are public health measures to consider. For example, if the virus originated from wildlife, there may be a need for stricter regulations on wildlife trade and interactions to reduce the risk of future zoonotic events.

Understanding the origin can provide insights into the virus's characteristics, which can be crucial for developing effective vaccines and treatments. It can help scientists anticipate potential mutations or variations and design vaccines that are more robust and adaptable.

Moreover, investigating the origins of a virus contributes to our overall understanding of infectious diseases and their dynamics. This knowledge can guide future research and help scientists develop strategies to mitigate the risks associated with emerging pathogens.

Additionally, the origin allows for the development of more effective surveillance systems, international collaboration, and early response mechanisms to identify and contain emerging infectious diseases.

Perhaps the way forward lies in thinking two things can be possible at once and taking preventive precautions accordingly. Who knows, that could be the only way to prevent another pandemic which kills millions of people across the globe.