Russia upset as Bangladesh blocks entry to sanctioned ships. What’s next?

The government of Bangladesh recently blocked the entry of 69 Russian ships that had violated Western sanctions. In response, according to a statement from the Russian foreign ministry, the country informed Bangladesh's envoy in Moscow that the action was inconsistent with their "traditionally friendly bilateral relations and may adversely affect the prospects for cooperation in various fields."

Bangladesh's first nuclear power station is currently being constructed by Rosatom, a state-owned nuclear energy company in Russia, and is scheduled to go online in 2024. Dhaka has requested that Moscow make sure that ships carrying equipment for the plant are not sanctioned. 

Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen has said Russia had 'deliberately' changed the name of a ship that was subject to sanctions in order to transfer parts for the Rooppur Nuclear Power Station in Bangladesh.

Given the recent developments, The Business Standard spoke to experts in international relations to gauge how this will affect the Russia-Bangladesh relationship in the coming days.

'The government of Russia understands the tricky position Bangladesh is in'

Humayun Kabir

Former Ambassador

The way Russia has responded to Bangladesh's embargo on the sanctioned ships was not unexpected. We should have been more careful, given the degree of Russian involvement in Bangladesh's economy. It is understandable that they are upset. 

Bangladesh and Russia's bilateral relationship goes way back to the very independence of the country. They are also closely involved in implementing the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant project, the largest development project in Bangladesh. So, our policymakers should have been more careful before taking such decisions. 
Moving forward, the Bangladeshi diplomats need to explain the situation carefully to the Russian embassy in the most appropriate matter. We cannot make any mistakes and risk antagonising a long-standing friend. Furthermore, the quality of diplomatic activity and efficiency must be improved to prevent similar occurrences in the future.

In terms of long-term impact, it is difficult to predict whether this would have any adverse impact on Bangladesh-Russia bilateral relationship. Moreover, it is also unlikely to have any significant impact on the implementation of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant as well.

In my understanding, the government of Russia understands the tricky position Bangladesh is in, as the country has to maintain an amicable relationship with the West as well. As long as our diplomats are able to tactfully explain our delicate situation, we should be fine.

'Russia also needs Bangladesh'

Dr Md Abdul Mannan

Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka

Bangladesh is under immense pressure from the US and the West to take a stance against Russia. 
The US is in a proxy war with Russia and they are doing everything to push Russia into a corner. Pressuring Bangladesh to block sanctioned Russian ships is simply a part of this strategy. 

Bangladesh is also likely to become a theatre for geopolitical tensions between the US and China. This is also why the US has pushed for including Bangladesh in the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS). 

It is unlikely that the blocking of the ships would have any significant impact on the bilateral relationship between Bangladesh and Russia. Russia also needs Bangladesh. It is being cornered by the West and is in desperate need of allies as they can either cast important votes against or abstain from voting against them in important resolutions in the United Nations. 

And even if it does affect the bilateral relationship, there isn't much we can do. The European Union and the US are the two largest importers of RMG from Bangladesh and Bangladesh's two largest trading partners apart from India and China. So, it makes sense for Bangladesh to prioritise them over Russia.

"Diplomats need to be more careful in taking a stance"

M Serajul Islam

Former Ambassador 

In 2022, Bangladesh abstained twice from voting against Russia in the United Nations, first in April when the West proposed to revoke Russia's membership of the UN Human Rights Council and second in November when a resolution in the general assembly was adopted to hold Russia accountable for its invasion of Ukraine.

Bangladesh's continuous abstention from voting against Russia did not bode well with the US and it is likely that they are very upset about this. This is probably why the US officials who have recently visited Bangladesh have repeatedly urged for free and fair elections. 

The purpose of these actions is simple. The US wants to send a message that if the government of Bangladesh does not act in its interest, it will likely want to intervene in Bangladesh's politics. 

So, it makes sense that the government also wanted to appease the US with its decision to put an embargo on sanctioned Russian ships. 

However, these decisions are inconsistent or whimsical given the recent stances taken by the Foreign Ministry. For instance, we abstained from voting against Russia in the United Nations twice, likely because they are heavily responsible for implementing the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant. Moreover, Bangladesh had good relations with Russia since the Liberation War. Russia even wanted to sell us oil in Taka. But we could not purchase petroleum products from them, because we did not have the oil refineries required to refine these products. 

Despite that, Bangladesh blocked 69 Russian ships from entry to its ports, many of which were carrying equipment for the Rooppur power plant. These ships cannot go to Thailand either using our maritime area as a shortcut. So, it also makes sense that Russia is upset about this decision. 

In conclusion, diplomats need to be more careful in taking a stance and must think in the long term before doing so. Otherwise, we will fall under similar predicaments again and again.

'The storm will calm down very soon'

Md Shahidul Haque

Former foreign secretary

It is a very normal reaction from Russia's end. That a country has banned another country's dozens of cargo is an event that is bound to be addressed from the highest level. Likewise, Russia too has a stand and to make Bangladesh aware of that, they have summoned the Bangladeshi ambassador. 

However, I don't think this is that big of an issue which can go to the extent of affecting the bilateral relationship between the countries. Because, in my opinion, it is merely an isolated event. Bilateral relationships never get affected on the ground of such trivial matters. 

To summon a country's ambassador has also become a very common practice nowadays. We also do this very often, and in the recent past, we summoned the US ambassador as well. It [to summon an ambassador] is done to hold meetings, explain one's own point of view and clear the air. 

Traditionally, Bangladesh shares a very strong bond with Russia. Over the years, we had mutual cooperation in various fields. I believe the recent event will not really affect such prospects. The storm will calm down very soon, and it has no chance of leaving the door open for any long-lasting consequence.

'Bangladesh has done exactly what it should have done'

Muhammad Ruhul Amin

Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka.

Summoning the ambassador definitely sends a negative message that the coming days might become difficult [for both parties involved]. But at the same time, I don't think Bangladesh was at fault in this matter. 

If the ships in question were under US sanctions, what else could Bangladesh do? The US is a global power, and not following their sanction means declaring war against them. Bangladesh, being a relatively smaller and weaker nation, cannot afford to do so. 

However, I also don't think by banning the Russian ships, Bangladesh underestimated Russia or turned its back on them. Bangladesh has done exactly what it should have done, given the current geopolitical scenario of the world.

Russia is bound to be dissatisfied with Bangladesh over this matter, but I don't think it will eventually affect their friendship with us. 

Ever since the Ukraine-Russia war started, the entire dynamics of the foreign policy all over the world have turned upside down. Russia too will understand down the line that Bangladesh did not have any other choice, and hence, they will continue the good relationship with us. 

Also, I appreciate Bangladesh's foreign policy during the Ukraine-Russia war. Holding on to an objectively neutral ground has been the best decision for us.