Hun Sen's playbook for power

On 23 July, Cambodian strongman Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party (CPP), which has been in power for 38 years, declared a landslide victory in the national polls —  a result which seems to have sent shockwaves far and wide, even reaching American shores. The US was quick to slap visa bans on Cambodian individuals it says "undermined democracy", as well as pausing some foreign assistance programmes in the Southeast Asian country. 

This has also caused quite a stir in Bangladesh. Earlier in May, the US announced a new policy to support free, fair, and peaceful national elections in Bangladesh as well, warning that it would restrict visas for any Bangladeshi individual undermining the democratic election process. This led to Awami League General Secretary and Road Transport and Bridges Minister Obaidul Quader to comment on the issue. "This will not happen in Bangladesh," Quader said while addressing a view-exchange meeting at AL's Bangabandhu Avenue central office.

The longest-serving leader in Southeast Asia, Hun Sen has steadily consolidated power during his nearly 40-year stay at the top. But at age 70, he has suggested he will hand off the premiership during the upcoming five-year term to his oldest son, Hun Manet, a West Point graduate and the current chief of the Cambodian army, perhaps as early as the first month after the elections.

Hun Sen's rule in Cambodia is a study in political survival. His rise from a peasant background to the country's top job, his consolidation of power, and his systematic suppression of opposition have ensured his continued rule. 

However, this has come at a significant cost to Cambodia's democratic institutions and human rights record.

Humble beginnings

Born in 1952 to a peasant family in Kampong Cham province, Hun Sen, who went by his birth name Hun Bunal back then, was educated at a Buddhist monastery in Phnom Penh.

Hun Sen's political journey began in the crucible of the Khmer Rouge regime. At the age of 18, he joined the radical communist organisation responsible for the deaths of millions of Cambodians during their brutal rule from 1975 to 1979. While working as a military commander of the Rouge, he lost his left eye during an exchange of gunfire, which lent credibility to his strongman persona. He also adopted the name "Hun Sen" during his time with the Khmer Rouge, which he retained throughout his political career.

In 1977, amidst the chaos of the Khmer Rouge regime, Hun Sen defected to Vietnam, a move that would significantly alter the course of his life. With Vietnamese support, he established the Kampuchean United Front for National Salvation, an organisation aimed at overthrowing the Khmer Rouge government. In 1979, following Vietnam's military intervention, the Khmer Rouge was ousted, and Hun Sen was appointed as the foreign minister of the newly established People's Republic of Kampuchea.

He returned to Cambodia after the Vietnamese installed a new government in 1979 and was made minister of foreign affairs. At 26, he was the youngest foreign minister in the world. Throughout the 1980s, Hun Sen's influence within the Cambodian People's Party grew steadily, and in 1985, he rose to the position of the country's Prime Minister, a position he has held onto ever since.

Consolidation of power

Hun Sen's consolidation of power has been a gradual process, marked by strategic alliances and political manoeuvring, strategies that most believe he learned during his stay in Vietnam and perfected during his nearly 40-year reign.

In the 1993 United Nations-sponsored elections, his party, the Cambodian People's Party (CPP), lost to the royalist FUNCINPEC party. However, Hun Sen refused to accept the results and threatened to secede.

King Norodom Sihanouk intervened, leading to a unique power-sharing agreement where Hun Sen became the "second prime minister" alongside Prince Norodom Ranariddh. This arrangement, however, was short-lived. In 1997, Hun Sen ousted Ranariddh in a bloody coup, effectively becoming the sole ruler of Cambodia.

In 1998, he won the elections and became the sole prime minister. He consolidated his power by suppressing the opposition, controlling the media, and cracking down on human rights activists. He also maintained close ties with China, which provided him with economic and military support.

After winning the elections in 2003, he started promoting his children to various important roles in the government, laying the foundation for his political dynasty.

In 2018, he secured another term as prime minister after banning the main opposition party and winning all 125 seats in parliament. He faced international criticism and sanctions for his authoritarian rule and human rights violations.

Suppression of opposition

Hun Sen's tenure has been marked by the systematic suppression of any opposition. During his time in power, hundreds of opposition figures, journalists, trade union leaders, and others have been killed in politically motivated attacks.

In 2017, the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), one of the most significant opposition parties, was dissolved by a Supreme Court ruling, and its leader, Kem Sokha, was arrested on charges of treason. This move was widely seen as a bid to remove any significant challenge to Hun Sen's rule in the 2018 elections.

The leader of the other significant opposition party, Sam Rainsy, has been living in self-imposed exile since 2015, facing a slew of politically motivated charges.

Hun Sen's government has also been accused of using judicial harassment to silence critics, with numerous human rights activists, journalists, and opposition members facing arbitrary arrests and detention. The government has also exerted control over the media landscape, shutting down independent newspapers and radio stations.

Hun Sen has also shuttered independent media outlets like Voice of Democracy Radio and ordered internet service providers to block access to critical news websites. His government even amended election laws to penalise calls for election boycotts after exiled opposition leaders urged Cambodians to spoil their ballots.

Latest developments

With no meaningful opposition, Hun Sen's CPP unsurprisingly claimed victory in the 2022 local elections and the 2023 national elections. The CPP took every single seat in 2022 and 120 out of 125 parliamentary seats in 2023. Rights groups denounced both votes as neither free nor fair.

The US, the EU and United Nations have condemned Hun Sen's anti-democratic tactics. But he continues to receive support from regional powers like China and his biggest ally, Vietnam who prioritise stability over human rights.

At 70 years old, this is most likely going to be Hun Sen's last election. But with Hun Manet set to take over, there seems to be no end in sight for the Sen Dynasty.