How should Biden respond? By finally putting pressure on Israel

Up until last Saturday, since the start of the Israel-Hamas war on 7 October 2023, the American forces in Iraq and Syria claimed to have weathered more than 160 attacks by Iranian-backed groups. 

The US President Joe Biden, however, largely disregarded most of these attacks, as the majority were either intercepted successfully or caused minimal harm to the US troops. 

There also was no American military fatality in the turmoil spilling over from the Israel-Hamas war, although on 11 January, two US Navy Seals drowned off the coast of Somalia as they intercepted a dhow carrying Iranian weapons for Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Still, at the back of his mind, Biden must have feared the possibility of what everyone was discussing: the escalation of a wider war in the region. 

On Saturday, three American service members were killed and approximately 34 injured following a drone attack on a US service base on the border of Jordan and Syria. It appears that we may have reached that point of escalation.

And of course, if the war does escalate, it will not be good news for any parties involved, except for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is seeking every opportunity to prolong the conflict in order to maintain his hold on power.

"While we are still gathering the facts of this attack, we know it was carried out by radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq," Biden told the media on Sunday. 

Despite Iran's mission to the UN denying Tehran's involvement in the attack in a statement published by the state news agency IRNA early on Monday, a group called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for the attack. Allegedly, it is an umbrella group backed by Iran.

"As we said before, if the US keeps supporting Israel, there will be escalations. All the US interests in the region are legitimate targets and we don't care about US threats to respond, we know the direction we are taking and martyrdom is our prize," the statement read. 

Meanwhile, Hamas also made a statement that the death of the soldiers shows Washington's backing for Israel could put it at odds with the whole Muslim world if the Gaza war continues and that it could lead to a "regional explosion."

Needless to say, this has intensified pressure on Biden for implementing more aggressive countermeasures. Already, while speaking later in Columbia, South Carolina on Sunday, Biden vowed: "We shall respond."

So, what now remains to be seen is how exactly Biden's said "response" will unfold. 

American officials believe that the first deaths of American troops under fire will necessitate "a different level of response" compared to what the US has undertaken thus far.

Notably, there have been some retaliatory strikes against Iranian proxies in the last three and a half months, along with a simultaneous campaign of strikes on Iranian-linked rebels in Yemen.

Those actions have hardly paid off, as is quite evident now. 

But at the moment, the even bigger question looming on the horizon is whether Biden should go as far as striking targets inside Iran itself, as urged by his Republican critics, who have stated that he would be a "coward" if he did not.

However, sometimes it's better to be a "coward," than a "fool". This is particularly true if such "cowardice" could potentially prevent a devastating war from engulfing an entire region.

Till now, the Biden administration's restraint in reacting to Iran's attacks – which were provocative in manner – has been a sign of wisdom and strength, not weakness.

For the US, decisively attempting to win such a war would incur significant military, diplomatic, and economic costs, which the Biden administration cannot currently afford with the presidential election slated for later this year.

The Israeli government, on the other hand, always expects that the war will widen, thus relieving them of the global criticism often incurred when advocating for a humanitarian ceasefire.

And more importantly, Netanyahu personally wants the war to never end. He is well aware that once the current conflict concludes, he will permanently lose his hold on power.

The reason?

No matter what has happened on the ground since Hamas' attack of 7 October, the Israeli public has so far shown no indication of forgiving him for failing to protect them.

From late October through mid-January, weekly surveys among repeat respondents by the Agam Institute at Jerusalem's Hebrew University indicate that a majority, approximately 56 percent of Jewish Israelis, believe that Netanyahu is factoring his personal political considerations into his handling of the war. (If Arab citizens of Israel had been included in the surveys, the average would likely be even higher.)

But in no way could Netanyahu's future be Biden's liability. More so when the future of an entire region, as well as Biden's own political career, hangs in the balance.

There is already a popular sentiment among many Americans that by abstaining from pressuring Israel to halt its bombardment of Gaza and agree to a ceasefire, Biden risks embroiling the US in another protracted conflict, potentially resulting in a prolonged war in the Middle East. 

Hence, this is the perfect time for the Biden administration to see the bigger picture. It must acknowledge the reality that while the US may be Israel's staunchest ally, Netanyahu is leveraging this alliance solely for his own political gain.

It is high time for Biden to realise that getting involved in a wider war in the Middle East, instead of pushing for a two-state solution and advocating for the Palestinian people to gain the autonomy they rightfully deserve, could never be a viable option. 

Biden should also comprehend the fact that Washington's backing for Israel is not only alienating it from the Muslim world but also from any segment of the global community that retains even a modicum of moral conscience.

So, we can only expect that the "response" Biden was referring to comes sooner rather than later, and that will turn out to be to finally put pressure on Israel to stop its atrocities in Gaza.