The geopolitical impacts of the Ukraine war

While Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has led to tens of thousands of deaths on both sides and created Europe's largest refugee wave since World War II, the ripples of this conflict have been felt across the globe. 

From threatening the stability of Europe to affecting food and energy security worldwide, including in the Middle East, South Asia and Africa, the Russia-Ukraine war sent shock waves through a world that was just beginning to recover from a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic.

On the first anniversary of the war, The Business Standard takes an in-depth look at how it has rekindled memories of the Cold War, polarised the planet even more, and in the process, restoked China-Taiwan tensions.

A world divided

Politically, three new blocs emerged due to the outbreak of major war in Europe after almost eight years of simmering conflict: those who sided with Putin's Russia, those who pledged support to Ukraine, and a group of non-aligned nations resisting involvement or hedging their bets.

The European Union (EU) member states were quick to respond with severe sanctions and action against Russia. Despite some discord, such as over the oil price cap and Germany's reluctance to send tanks and other military equipment, the bloc has largely stayed together, contrary to Russian expectations and hopes. 

The United Kingdom has been eager to highlight its "special relationship" with Kyiv, with former Prime Minister Boris Johnson especially keen to take the initiative with robust rhetoric and military backing.

Not as much support for Ukraine was shown elsewhere though. Putin, as expected, enlisted the help of familiar allies like Bashar al-Assad of Syria and Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, and he also forged a closer strategic alliance with Iran.

A resolution condemning Russia's aggression was passed by the United Nations General Assembly with a resounding majority a week after the invasion. However, there were 35 no votes, including those of South Africa, Pakistan, and India, all of which are Commonwealth members. A few Asian governments, including Singapore, South Korea, and Japan, firmly supported Ukraine. 

China, India, and Indonesia — the region's three largest rising powers — all declined to take a side.

While many in the West hoped that Russia's invasion would rally nations in the developing world behind the rules-based order, Asia has primarily rejected Western framings of the conflict as a battle between might and right. 

As a security analyst, Ben Bland wrote in an article for UK-based think tank Chatham House, "Most Asian nations pragmatically choose to maintain relationships with Russia for a combination of economic, military, and diplomatic reasons, despite the fact that they might find Russia an increasingly awkward partner."

Most abstentions (51%) condemning Russia's invasion of the UN came from African countries, indicating a somewhat resurgence of what was many African nations' default position during the Cold War.

Iran has taken advantage of both tactical and strategic deals, giving Russia sanction-busting support and hundreds of attack drones in exchange for Russian assistance in monitoring and suppressing recent protests at home.

Meanwhile, Turkey has blocked Finland and especially Sweden's accession to NATO. At the same time, it has emerged as a significant new diplomatic player by helping to broker the grain blockade deal, serving as a humanitarian base for hostage swaps, and hosting (so far unsuccessful) peace talks.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine proved to many of its neighbours that they were right to be concerned about Moscow's expansionist designs in the region.

The invasion from Russia would drastically re-evaluate Europe's security posture because countries like France and Germany had failed to adapt to new geopolitical realities.

Indeed, European countries responded by significantly increasing their defence budgets, with Germany committing to 2% of its GDP in Chancellor Olaf Scholz's recalibrating 'Zeitenwende' speech.

However, despite repeatedly promising to do so, Germany has been notoriously slow to implement significant policy shifts, like the introduction of Leopard tanks.

Countries in the EU's central, eastern, and Baltic regions are more hawkish on Russia than countries like Germany and France, but this hasn't slowed the EU's overall response.

Additionally, the European Peace Facility's budget, which had been rarely used before the Ukraine conflict, has been used five times, providing Ukraine with €2.5 billion in cash and hardware for its defences.

A resurgent NATO

NATO's forward presence in Eastern Europe has also increased due to Russia's invasion, making the alliance more effective at deterring future aggression. With increased size, readiness, and reinforcement strategies, Putin has "pulled NATO closer than ever before". 

Moscow, on the other hand, has repeatedly accused the NATO alliance of playing a direct role in the war by supplying arms to Kyiv.

Finland and Russia share a 1,340 km (833 mi) land border, while Sweden and Russia are separated by the Baltic Sea. Both believed it was safer to remain neutral nations for seven decades than to join NATO. 

However, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, they banged on the doors of the alliance.

Taiwan troubles

The United States and its Western allies continue to worry about China's intentions in the Indo-Pacific. The world is closely monitoring China because the CIA recently warned that the country plans to invade Taiwan in 2027.

Many lawmakers and experts from around the globe warned that Russia's invasion of Ukraine one year ago this week could give China the confidence to carry out its long-standing threat to forcibly unite the mainland with self-governing Taiwan.

It was feared that China and its People's Liberation Army (PLA), which is becoming more and more capable, would take inspiration from Moscow's aggression and invade Taiwan, further tipping the balance of power in the region in its favour.

It is also believed that President Xi was misled into thinking the invasion of Ukraine would be short and has since distanced himself from Putin due to the prolonged war and the severe backlash it has received from the West.

Isolation from the West is not something China wants to risk while trying to rebuild its economy after the Covid-19 pandemic. Chinese President Xi Jinping has come to see that there are severe constraints on the country's ability to work with Russia without jeopardising its political priorities and longer-term economic interests.

The resilience of Ukraine and the sanctions Russia is facing have provided a "live simulation" of the reaction to an invasion of Taiwan, giving Beijing a pause.

Nuclear chess

The nuclear threat is less pressing now than during the Cold War, thanks to US-Russian arms control. However, Russia has made frequent nuclear threats over the past year, some of which have been indirect, while others have been on an 'escalation,' and still, others have been aimed squarely at NATO countries like the UK.

The West has also issued warnings, with US President Joe Biden claiming that the risk of a nuclear Armageddon is higher now than in the last 60 years. These threats are not unprecedented, but their veracity and the West's reaction to them remain open questions. 

The effectiveness of the scare tactics has been demonstrated. The West is understandably alarmed by meaningless statements from Russia, such as the announcement that Russia will put its nuclear forces on a "special regime of combat duty" in February 2022.

At the outset of the conflict, Putin put Russia's strategic nuclear weapons on "high alert," possibly to give him combat readiness status at home and give other senior Russian personnel the authority to order their use. However, the phrase's meaning is vague, possibly on purpose, because it had never been used before. The Ukrainian state has been the target of many of the threats.

Russia's "playing fast and loose" with the security of nuclear energy in Ukraine is a worrying new development in its broader intimidation strategy, as evidenced by recent shelling and attacks near the Zaporizhya plant and fears of a dirty bomb detonated as a "false flag" attack.

Putin knows full well the panic this would cause, especially in Ukraine, which was the site of the world's worst nuclear power accident in 1986 at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant.

Creating an uninhabitable post-nuclear wasteland would make "little strategic sense" if Putin's "imperial legacy project" is to retake territory in Ukraine and consolidate his power. NATO and western allies have also stopped engaging in "tit for tat" tactics that could escalate the war.