Extreme floods across Asia reflect a growing pattern of uncertainty 

Bangladesh has experienced severe flooding this year, beginning in June when heavy rains submerged Sylhet and Sunamganj.

By August, flash floods from intense rainfall and water release from Indian dams affected 11 districts, including Feni, Cumilla, Noakhali, Khagrachari, and Rangamati.

In September, torrential rains caused further flooding and landslides in southeastern regions, particularly in Cox's Bazar.

Overall, the devastating floods this year have resulted in over 30 deaths and affected nearly 6 million people.

However, Bangladesh is not the only country affected by floods in recent times. A powerful monsoon system has triggered catastrophic floods, landslides, and storms across South Asia and surrounding regions.

While rural areas need investment in watershed development, flood-resilient infrastructure, and improved disaster preparedness, urban areas require decentralised water systems with wastewater reuse and institutional reforms for better resource management.

In India, torrential rains led to flash floods in Gujarat and Rajasthan, displacing thousands and causing significant damage, while Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand experienced landslides that buried entire villages. China faced historic flooding and Typhoon Doksuri, submerging cities and prompting massive evacuations. 

Myanmar was also hit by Typhoon Yagi, causing severe flooding and landslides, resulting in over 226 deaths and displacing more than 320,000 people. Vietnam too suffered from Typhoon Yagi, with 344 people reported dead or missing and significant infrastructural damage. The Philippines, Laos, and Thailand experienced significant flooding and infrastructural damage due to the same typhoon. 

South Korea and Japan faced severe monsoon conditions, leading to floods and landslides, with hundreds of thousands of people forced to evacuate. Meanwhile, massive rainfall inundated parts of Central and Eastern Europe last week, when as much as two-thirds of some cities' annual rainfall occurred in just a few days.

Experts assert that these events are directly linked to increasing global warming driven by human activities. 

Dr Rashed Chowdhury, applications scientist of water, climate and society and also an Adjunct Faculty at Arizona State University, explained that "intense rainfall happens when warmer air holds more moisture, leading to downpours, while the sun can quickly dry the ground, resulting in sweltering heat."

Dr Ashraf Dewan, Associate Professor at the School of Earth and Planetary Sciences in Curtin University, added that the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events are partly due to the weakening of large-scale global phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while sea temperatures are rising faster than anticipated before. 

"Hence, there is a likelihood of these events to be recurrent," he pointed out, noting that global temperatures broke all previous records in 2023, reaching 1.45 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average. 

Dr Ashraf also mentioned that carbon emissions reached an all-time high of 423.35 ppm in September 2024, which is 50% higher than levels during the industrial revolution.

What's particularly alarming is that the emerging pattern presents greater concerns than many people recognise. Evidence from this year shows that we can expect heightened intensity and unpredictability, with monsoons becoming erratic and storms gaining strength.

A pattern of uncertainty

Depinder Kapur, Director of the Water Program at the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) in New Delhi, noted a clear trend: increasing uncertainty and variability in weather and climate, leading to fluctuations in heat and rainfall patterns.

To begin with, Asia was the region most affected by climate change, weather and water-related hazards globally last year, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

To add to that, "increasing temperature at both the day and night time is another clear pattern," Kapur said. 

The UN weather agency found that Asia has been warming faster than the global average, with temperature rises in 2023 averaging nearly 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1961-90 average.

"Many countries in the region experienced their hottest year on record in 2023, along with a barrage of extreme conditions, from droughts and heatwaves to floods and storms," WMO chief Celeste Saulo said in a statement.

Extreme heat in South Asia during the pre-monsoon season is becoming more frequent, with studies on the 2022 India-Pakistan heatwave and the 2023 humid heatwave in India, Bangladesh, Lao PDR, and Thailand showing that human-induced climate change made these events around 30 times more likely and hotter. 

While the 2022 heatwave caused widespread harvest loss due to drier conditions, the 2023 humid heat had greater impacts on people. 

This year, from Israel and Palestine to the Philippines, large parts of Asia saw temperatures exceeding 40°C for days, resulting in hundreds of deaths in countries such as Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, and Palestine.

Still, when it comes to rainfall, there is a significant unpredictability. 

Monsoon rainfall in 2023 was widely below average, according to the WMO State of the Climate in Asia report. In contrast, what unfolded in 2024 was largely unpredictable. 

In April, South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, which is backed by WMO and Regional Climate Centre Pune predicted that above normal rainfall is most likely during the 2024 southwest monsoon season (June – September) over most parts of South Asia. 

"Above-normal rainfall is most likely during the 2024 southwest monsoon season (June-September) over most parts of South Asia, except some areas over northern, eastern, and northeastern parts of the region, where below-normal rainfall is most likely," the Forum said. 

But what in the end turned out was that many regions that were expected to experience below-normal rainfall instead faced severe monsoon rains in recent months, serving as a "classic example" of climate change intensifying extreme weather events.

Kapur predicts this is what we can expect more often from now on. "This is a clear manifestation of climate change that there is increasing uncertainty of rainfall and flooding in the coming years as well. We will not know which areas will get more flooding next year and which will have deficit rainfall," he said.  

Asia at the forefront of vulnerability 

The pattern of uncertainty places South Asian regions in a more vulnerable position compared to many others, primarily due to their high population density and intense pressure on natural resources. 

Kapur also highlights the region's reliance on agriculture for food security, which is further threatened by inconsistent rainfall and flooding. 

Urban residents are also facing increased risks and vulnerabilities, as disruptions in movement and urban flooding create significant chaos and disturb productivity on an unprecedented scale.

Additionally, "many countries in Asia lack the financial and technical resources needed for adaptation, and political instability can hinder efforts to tackle these challenges," believes Dr Rashed.

Dr Ashraf also put in that as human activities such as deforestation is high in Asia, environmental issues caused by man-made climate warming could put more people at risk of climate extremes in the coming days.

Nevertheless, he noted that African countries are also experiencing extreme events and their vulnerability is compounding as a result.

Climate adaptation strategies

The urgency for robust climate adaptation is evident as recent disasters highlight the need for resilient infrastructure, stronger early warning systems, and community-level preparedness. 

Without scaled-up mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, extreme weather will worsen, displacing millions through rising sea levels, collapsing agriculture, and triggering food shortages and economic instability. 

Dr Ashraf, however, emphasised that it is crucial to first identify the local constraints that lead to poor or maladaptation to climate extremes. 

"We should look at local contexts because even though climate change is a global phenomenon, climate solutions are actually local. So, we must devise policies and solutions based on the local environment," he said.

He believes nature-based solutions (NbS) are often seen as a panacea for climate issues, but there is a gap in understanding how to adapt them to local contexts. 

According to Dr Ashraf, policies must be grounded in science and quality data, yet many Asian developing countries lack such data. To build climate resilience, strong action is needed alongside climate-literate populations and leadership.

Dr Rashed recommends strengthening community protection by building resilient infrastructure like flood barriers and cyclone shelters, while also supporting farmers through climate-smart agricultural practices, including the use of diverse and drought-resistant crops. 

He further advocates for the restoration of natural buffers such as mangroves and wetlands to mitigate storm impact and sustain local livelihoods.

Kapur, on the other hand, said that climate adaptation must be tailored for both rural and urban areas, focusing on heat and water challenges. 

He suggested that while rural areas need investment in watershed development, flood-resilient infrastructure, and improved disaster preparedness, urban areas require decentralised water systems with wastewater reuse and institutional reforms for better resource management.

"A 'global south water-sensitive cities' framework should prioritise equity, ensuring functional, inclusive, and resilient water systems that address stormwater management," Kapur concluded.