There are certain predefined assumptions for forecasting economic growth. For example, if the coronavirus impact stays four more months in our economy, we will find one type of picture, and if we can recover from this crisis fast, there will be a different scenario.
So, the World Bank's projection that our GDP growth will slump to 3 percent in the current fiscal year due to the coronavirus outbreak is based on the assumptions. If any changes come in those assumptions, there might be a change in the economic condition too.
The country's industrial sector is mainly dependent on the readymade garment which is suffering immensely for the coronavirus outbreak. For this, our export is going to be hit hard.
Like this, all the sectors are feeling a big impact from this global pandemic. Both internal and external businesses are being affected and the service sector is not out of this shock.
The agriculture sector has also hit a stumbling block. Cultivators cannot sell their agriculture products in the wake of a drastic fall in demand for those at this time of shutdown. They are incurring huge losses as they are not getting fair prices of their produces – from vegetables, eggs, fish, to chickens.
The countrywide lockdown enforced to stem the coronavirus outbreak has hampered the communication system as well. As a result, the product supply chain has collapsed.
The coronavirus pandemic has affected every sector and is continuing its onslaught. The extent of losses caused by it will depend on how long this crisis lasts. The quicker we can come out of this situation, the faster our economy will come back to normalcy.
There is no denying that our economy has been going through a big crisis. So, this fiscal year, our GDP will not see normal growth.
It will be very difficult to achieve our projected 8.2 percent growth this time.
And it is difficult to assess what will be the economic growth. The World Bank has given a forecast, so has the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The ADB's prediction is much higher than that of the World Bank. Maybe, the ADB's predefined conditions were different.
The government has taken quite a few measures to face this crisis in the upcoming fiscal years. The government has declared many incentive packages. If those incentive packages are used properly, we might overcome this crisis to some extent. Only allocations of funds are not enough, their utilisation also matters as now we see irregularities in the distribution of rice for relief. No matter how bigger an incentive package is, it is will be difficult to recoup the losses if we cannot implement that.
Our big lesson from this big catastrophe is that we need to identify economic vulnerabilities and take necessary actions accordingly. For instance, we are witnessing some weak points in all sectors including the health.
Such weak points may collapse during such a disaster, putting the economy under a threat. We have to give an utmost focus on gaining strength to fight different vulnerabilities in the economy.
Besides, our economy's return to normalcy depends greatly on the world economic condition. If the conditions in the countries those who buy products from us do not become normal, our condition will not be normal. On the other hand, when different countries will come out of this situation, there will come an opportunity for us and we have to be ready to cash in on that.