Govt projects forex reserves to reach $41b in FY27

Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves are projected to rise to $41.01 billion in FY2026-27, according to the proposed national budget, reflecting expectations of stronger remittance inflows, export earnings and improved macroeconomic stability. 

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury is set to unveil the FY2026-27 national budget in parliament this afternoon (11 June), outlining the government's policy priorities under a proposed Tk9.38 lakh crore outlay.  

The budget document shows that gross foreign exchange reserves fell from $46.39 billion in FY2020-21 to $26.9 billion in FY2023-24, before recovering to an estimated $31.17 billion at the end of FY2024-25. 

Reserves are projected to increase further to $41.01 billion in FY27, $50.62 billion in FY28 and $62.64 billion in FY29, surpassing the pre-crisis peak recorded in FY2020-21. 

According to the projections, reserves will be sufficient to cover approximately 5.4 months of imports by FY29, moving closer to the conventional adequacy benchmark of six months. 

The outlook assumes continued growth in remittances and exports, alongside prudent management of external debt. 

Exchange-rate regime 

The budget document says that since the formal introduction of a market-based exchange-rate regime in May 2025, macroeconomic expectations have remained broadly anchored through a controlled adjustment in the currency. 

The taka depreciated by around 11% against the US dollar, moving from roughly Tk110 per dollar in April 2024 to around Tk122 by October 2025, where it has since stabilised. 

However, the currency experienced greater volatility against other major trading currencies. 

Over the same period, the taka weakened by 18-20% against both the euro and the pound sterling. 

It also depreciated against the Chinese yuan, increasing the cost of importing raw materials and intermediate goods from China and adding to domestic cost pressures.