A tougher war ahead, we have to face it
In this war, according to experts, uncertainty about tomorrow appears to be the biggest challenge for the countries that are fighting the battle and those that are preparing to face it
The coronavirus war seems to be growing bigger every day.
Yet, the way the world is fighting hard the pandemic generates hopes that it will be contained in weeks or months – may be at a cost of several thousands of more lives. China and South Korea's success in the battle has raised the hope.
Uncertainty has, however, gripped the global financial system as the pandemic keeps wreaking havoc on it affecting each and every economy and every citizen regardless of the extent of the attack on them.
Trillions of dollars have already been wiped from financial markets in the last two weeks. And more shocks may keep coming as Omar Hassan, a New York-based economic development specialist, predicts the pandemic will economically cripple millions, especially since it has formed a perfect storm with stock market crashes, an oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, and the spilling over of an actual war in Syria into another potential migrant crisis.
"Economic danger is exponentially greater than its health risks to the public. If the virus does directly affect your life, it is most likely to be through stopping you from going to work, forcing your employer to make you redundant, or bankrupting your business," he writes in the Independent, a UK daily.
Needless to say Bangladesh's economy and its people have no shield to protect themselves from the heat of the rattled global financial system.
Fear and uncertainty already gripped the country's largest export sector RMG as buyers are cancelling orders. Ninety-three Bangladeshi factories have so far reported $104 million loss as of March 17, reports this newspaper on Friday.
Other businesses are also reeling from the pandemic shock.
Though economists and businessmen are demanding for stimulus package, it may not be possible for the government to come up with a big one as our economy is already under pressure due to fall in export and shortfall of revenue.
Now our hope to recover from the economic shock lies largely in the global efforts to "vaccinate" the financial system, according to economists and businessmen.
Global giant economies are pumping trillions of dollars in their economies as preparations for another fight to help recover the damaged health caused by the coronavirus.
The USA declared $1 trillion coronavirus stimulus package and the UK came up with a loan guarantee programme worth $330 billion. Spain offered a $220 billion aid package, Japan $112 billion, Canada $82 billion and South Korea $39 billion to give a boost to their financial system devastated by the pandemic, according to media reports.
Other affected countries such as Italy and Spain are also pumping billions of dollars.
The German state bank has announced to lend as much as $610 billion to companies to ensure they survive the pandemic and shield their workers from its impact.
Central banks in other countries have also taken measures such as rates-cut to help businesses recover fast.
The European Central Bank announced that it would begin an enormous new wave of bond purchase meant to counteract the "serious risks" to the euro-zone.
It will buy up to $820 billion in government and corporate bonds and other assets, pumping cash into financial markets as the bank chief, Christine Lagarde, said: "Extraordinary times require extraordinary action."
Global think tanks and economists forecast that the financial crisis may be worse than the recession in 2008.
The rattled businesses will cause joblessness as the UN labour agency ILO predicted the virus could claim up to 25 million jobs.
To keep businesses morally boosted up, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Thursday, days after the announcement of a big financial package, urged companies: "Stand by your employees in the hour of need, we will stand by you."
Like Johnson, leaders in some other countries have also made the same clarion call with stimulus packages.
In the ongoing war, focus remains on China as its recovery matters much to the world.
China, the global second big economy which is considered the global growth engine, initially allocated around $16 billion to fight the pandemic.
A latest Reuters report says China is set to ramp up spending aim to spur infrastructure investment, backed by as much as $394 billion of local government special bonds.
Its fast recovery will give a boost to global economy as the world supply chain is largely dependent on the second largest economy.
If supply chain is back to normalcy, our economy too will breathe a sigh of relief as a large amount of industrial raw materials is imported from China.
Against all the hopes, there are reasons to be worried. The way our authorities are fighting the virus does not match with the health advisory issued by the World Health Organisation.
The US, the UK and European countries like Italy and Spain – despite having world class health care system – are struggling hard to slow down the spreading of the virus following the health advisory and imposing lockdown either fully or partially. Yet, every day the countries report new deaths and cases of infection.
The authorities in Bangladesh have let the war become tougher, ignoring the WHO's health advisory and learning nothing from the countries at war with the virus. Health experts all along decried the lacklustre approach by the authorities.
Though belated, they woke up to the reality and geared up measures.
In this war, according to experts, uncertainty about tomorrow appears to be the biggest challenge for the countries that are fighting the battle and those that are preparing to face it.
In view of The Economist, "Three factors will determine how they cope: their attitude to uncertainty; the structure and competence of their health systems; and, above all, whether they are trusted."