21-day lockdown enough? Cambridge University study says: NO!
Skip to main content
  • Home
  • Economy
    • Aviation
    • Bazaar
    • Budget
    • Industry
    • NBR
    • RMG
    • Corporates
  • Stocks
  • Analysis
  • World+Biz
  • Sports
  • Features
    • Book Review
    • Brands
    • Earth
    • Explorer
    • Fact Check
    • Family
    • Food
    • Game Reviews
    • Good Practices
    • Habitat
    • Humour
    • In Focus
    • Luxury
    • Mode
    • Panorama
    • Pursuit
    • Wealth
    • Wellbeing
    • Wheels
  • Epaper
  • More
    • Subscribe
    • Videos
    • Thoughts
    • Splash
    • Bangladesh
    • Supplement
    • Infograph
    • Archive
    • COVID-19
    • Games
    • Long Read
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Podcast
    • Quiz
    • Tech
    • Trial By Trivia
    • Magazine
  • বাংলা
The Business Standard

Tuesday
February 07, 2023

Sign In
Subscribe
  • Home
  • Economy
    • Aviation
    • Bazaar
    • Budget
    • Industry
    • NBR
    • RMG
    • Corporates
  • Stocks
  • Analysis
  • World+Biz
  • Sports
  • Features
    • Book Review
    • Brands
    • Earth
    • Explorer
    • Fact Check
    • Family
    • Food
    • Game Reviews
    • Good Practices
    • Habitat
    • Humour
    • In Focus
    • Luxury
    • Mode
    • Panorama
    • Pursuit
    • Wealth
    • Wellbeing
    • Wheels
  • Epaper
  • More
    • Subscribe
    • Videos
    • Thoughts
    • Splash
    • Bangladesh
    • Supplement
    • Infograph
    • Archive
    • COVID-19
    • Games
    • Long Read
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Podcast
    • Quiz
    • Tech
    • Trial By Trivia
    • Magazine
  • বাংলা
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 07, 2023
21-day lockdown enough? Cambridge University study says: NO!

Covid-19 in Bangladesh

Inam Ahmed & Shakhawat Liton
08 April, 2020, 11:00 pm
Last modified: 09 April, 2020, 10:13 am

Related News

  • UNFPA and BRAC host knowledge dissemination event on Covid-19
  • The supply chain crisis opens door to resilience
  • Hong Kong says 'hello' to woo back visitors after Covid
  • US to end Covid-19 emergency declarations on 11 May
  • Covid remains a public health emergency, says WHO

21-day lockdown enough? Cambridge University study says: NO!

Inam Ahmed & Shakhawat Liton
08 April, 2020, 11:00 pm
Last modified: 09 April, 2020, 10:13 am

Bangladesh will end its third week of lockdown, albeit a very relaxed one, on April 14 and so will India.

The question now is: Then what?

These two countries are similar in many ways including the patterns of infection. Is it okay to lift the 21-day lockdown and return to normal life?

A study by the University of Cambridge suggests a single lockdown of 21 days will not be effective and the virus will again go virulent.

The study has rather suggested either a straight 49-day lockdown or three lockdowns for 21 days, 28 days and 18 days – with relaxation of five days in between – that only can control coronavirus effectively.

Two researchers – Ronojoy Adhikari and Rajesh Singh from the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics of Cambridge University – also said that the virus will have a resurgence after the 21-day lockdowns are lifted in India and Bangladesh.

The study is now being examined by the Indian Council of Medical Research to chart-out future strategy and India is likely to make a decision today in this regard.

Meanwhile, in a video meeting with the leaders of all parties, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi yesterday said the lockdown will be extended and restrictions will not be lifted in one go after April 14 as the virus continues unbridled, killing more people and infecting hundreds every day. A number of states have already requested the central government to extend the lockdown.

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has warned the virus situation may worsen in April and further steps will be considered depending on the situation.

However, it is not clear if the Cambridge model is being seriously taken by our policymakers.

An analysis of data of the worst affected countries shows the virus becomes virulent in either the fourth or fifth week from the first detection of infection.

Unlike the other countries, Bangladesh has not applied a wholesale lockdown. It has been applied only to areas where virus infected patients have been detected.

Bangladesh has also not been proactive with many measures the other countries took such as early shutdown of international flights and forced quarantine.

Why Vietnam is free of coronavirus now

Since March 5, Vietnam has found no positive cases. So far it has 240 positive cases. It has about 70,000 people in quarantine.

Unlike South Korea, Vietnam has little capability of testing and it has tested only about 15,000 people.

The World Economic Forum has explained its success to Vietnam's swift suspension of all flights to and from China. It also decided to keep schools closed after the lunar New Year break. It also imposed a 21-day lockdown.

But more than that, it has gone for a mandatory 14-day quarantine for anyone arriving in Vietnam and the cancellation of foreign flights, something that Bangladesh failed to do.

It has also tracked down each person that an infected person has come in contact with and isolated them.

Vietnam had faced special trouble with its number 17 infected person, a rich woman who had flown in and slipped through the airport check. It is thought the infection peaked in Vietnam because of this woman's action.

The authorities hunted her down. It also quarantined all the persons that she had come in touch with.

Vietnam ran a house to house awareness programme. Health workers went around and advised people on what to do during the virus infection.

Sweden does not believe in lockdown

Sweden has 400 deaths – more than the US per capita. Yet it has not locked down its society and is following a very relaxed social distancing rule.

It has let its people go out and mix freely and is asking the elderly to remain indoors. But that too is not any strict instruction. It has also not stopped people from going out of or coming into the country.

Sweden's public spaces and restaurants are full of people enjoying the summer sunshine. Sweden believes the virus will weaken and go away just as any virus does.

China followed total lockdown

China imposed a strict lockdown in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei on January 23 to slow down the spread of the virus shutting down the economy resulting in disruption of the global supply chain. It also carried out aggressive tests and contact tracing. After two months, the restrictions were lifted in the last week of March, allowing resumption of economic activities amid fear of imported cases.

South Korea did not lockdown

Outside of China, South Korea was the first worst affected country. It however did not follow China's model of strict lockdown. It rather conducted aggressive testing of people for coronavirus and extensive contact tracing alongside enforcement of the social distancing rule.

Use of advanced technology helped South Korea to run ahead of the virus and win the battle.

A government-run big-data platform has stored information of all citizens and resident foreign nationals and integrated all government organisations, hospitals, financial services, mobile operators, and other services into it.

It has an app called Corona 100m that has mapped the locations of Covid-19 patients and alerts users if they come within 100 metres of an infected person. It used CCTVs extensively in contact-tracing. There is also a mobile app to keep track of the health status of overseas visitors.

Private companies and organisations have also adopted high-tech solutions to fight the virus.

The country on Tuesday reported fewer than 50 new cases for the second straight day. It has been reporting around 100 fewer new cases for more than three weeks.

Bangladesh ran behind the virus 

Bangladesh is following the lockdown model though not in a proper way. First, it enforced a seven-day shutdown from March 26. Then it was extended for another seven days and again for another three days.

The high population density and rate of poverty appear to be the major problems in enforcing lockdowns and effective social distancing. The risk of local transmission went up many times when people left Dhaka for their homes in hordes after the government announced public holiday at the end of March.

Again, we saw an exodus of RMG workers this week as they rushed to the capital in hordes to join their works while the authorities vacillated on whether the factories would remain closed or not.

The extended shutdown will end on April 14, next Tuesday. Top officials in the government said they were closely monitoring the situation. Considering the gravity of the situation, the government will decide whether shutdown would be extended or not. 

Epidemiologists, however, suggested Bangladesh to prepare for a longer lockdown as the Cambridge study advised for a straight 49-days lockdown or three lockdowns.

Analysis / Bangladesh / Top News

COVID-19

Comments

While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderation decisions are subjective. Published comments are readers’ own views and The Business Standard does not endorse any of the readers’ comments.

Top Stories

  • A general view shows damaged and collapsed buildings after an earthquake in Kahramanmaras, Turkey February 6, 2023. Ihlas News Agency (IHA) via REUTERS
    Deaths exceed 3,700 as catastrophic quakes ravage Turkey, Syria
  • 30% cos see double-digit growth even in hard times
    30% cos see double-digit growth even in hard times
  • Govt borrowing from commercial banks surges
    Govt borrowing from commercial banks surges

MOST VIEWED

  • Incepta Pharma abandons Covid vaccine plan
    Incepta Pharma abandons Covid vaccine plan
  • Test tube labelled "Covid-19 Omicron variant test positive" is seen in this illustration picture taken 15 January, 2022. PHOTO: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
    Tighter screening at ports urged as new Covid sub-variant BF.7 detected
  • Test tube labelled "Covid-19 Omicron variant test positive" is seen in this illustration picture taken 15 January, 2022. PHOTO: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
    First case of new Covid sub-variant Omicron BF.7 detected in Bangladesh: IEDCR
  • Illustration: Collected
    Genome sequencing reports of Chinese nationals infected with Covid by Sunday: IEDCR
  • Computer image of a betacoronavirus which is the type of virus linked to Covid-19
    4 Chinese nationals detected with Covid at Dhaka airport
  • Omicron BF7: Land ports still left unguarded
    Omicron BF7: Land ports still left unguarded

Related News

  • UNFPA and BRAC host knowledge dissemination event on Covid-19
  • The supply chain crisis opens door to resilience
  • Hong Kong says 'hello' to woo back visitors after Covid
  • US to end Covid-19 emergency declarations on 11 May
  • Covid remains a public health emergency, says WHO

Features

Photo: Collected

Get your partner a lovely present this Valentine's Day

22h | Brands
Pottery Wheel Craft Kit: A creative outlet for little hands

Pottery Wheel Craft Kit: A creative outlet for little hands

21h | Brands
Say it with Colours

Say it with Colours

1d | Mode
Photo: Courtesy

From 'Made in Bangladesh' to 'Designed in Bangladesh'

1d | Panorama

More Videos from TBS

Who will survive? Adani or Hindenburg?

Who will survive? Adani or Hindenburg?

12h | TBS Stories
James Gunn’s 8-10-year plan for the DC Universe

James Gunn’s 8-10-year plan for the DC Universe

12h | TBS Entertainment
LC issues lead to severe shortage of surgical equipment

LC issues lead to severe shortage of surgical equipment

15h | TBS Insight
Stage plays are going on in the digital age

Stage plays are going on in the digital age

20h | TBS Stories

Most Read

1
Leepu realised his love for cars from a young age and for the last 40 years, he has transformed, designed and customised hundreds of cars. Photo: Collected
Panorama

'I am not crazy about cars anymore': Nizamuddin Awlia Leepu

2
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, U.S., September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
Economy

IMF approves $4.7 billion loan for Bangladesh, calls for ambitious reforms

3
Belal Ahmed new acting chairman of SIBL
Banking

Belal Ahmed new acting chairman of SIBL

4
Fund cut as Dhaka's fast-track transit projects on slow spending lane
Infrastructure

Fund cut as Dhaka's fast-track transit projects on slow spending lane

5
Photo: Collected
Startups

ShopUp secures $30m debt financing to boost expansion, supply chain

6
Photo: Courtesy
Panorama

From 'Made in Bangladesh' to 'Designed in Bangladesh'

EMAIL US
[email protected]
FOLLOW US
WHATSAPP
+880 1847416158
The Business Standard
  • About Us
  • Contact us
  • Sitemap
  • Privacy Policy
  • Comment Policy
Copyright © 2023
The Business Standard All rights reserved
Technical Partner: RSI Lab

Contact Us

The Business Standard

Main Office -4/A, Eskaton Garden, Dhaka- 1000

Phone: +8801847 416158 - 59

Send Opinion articles to - [email protected]

For advertisement- [email protected]