7 Jan polls: Will smaller parties have bigger roles?

The smaller parties might hold the key to the outcome of the 12th national elections amid the heightened political tensions triggered by the ruling Awami League government's steadfast position to hold the polls under a partisan government and the stern rejection of the polls schedule by the BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and like-minded parties.

Experts say while the AL relies on the participation of smaller parties to make the election look like "participatory", the decision of some registered smaller parties to boycott the polls under the Awami League-led government has offered a glimmer of hope for the BNP.

Following the Election Commission's announcement of the election schedule on Wednesday, 24 out of the 44 registered parties have expressed their intention to participate in the polls scheduled for 7 January 2024. Notably, 15 of these parties have already issued statements welcoming the election schedule.

In contrast, 19 parties have previously indicated their refusal to participate in the elections. Of these, 17 parties have publicly rejected the election schedule through official statements.

Eleven other parties have yet to clarify their stance or issue any statements following the announcement of the election schedule.

However, the Jatiya Party, the main opposition in the current parliament, remains undecided on its participation in the upcoming elections. A faction led by Rowshan Ershad favours contesting the polls, while the other faction, headed by party chairman GM Quader, maintains its stance against participating under a partisan government.

Political analysts view the Jatiya Party's position as a potential game-changer in the upcoming election. The party's choice of side could significantly influence the outcome.

Some 38 registered parties participated in the 2008 elections, while only 12 participated in 2014. The 2018 elections saw an increase in participation, with 39 registered parties vying for votes. Excluding the three major parties – Awami League, BNP, and Jatiya Party – all participants were smaller parties.

Reiterating their stance on coalition, the 14-party alliance led by the Awami League has affirmed its intention to continue this approach in the upcoming elections. Simultaneously, the Awami League is actively engaging the Jatiya Party headed by GM Quader in hopes of securing its participation in the polls.

Newly formed political parties are making their presence felt in the upcoming elections, with the Bangladesh Supreme Party (BSP) and Bangladesh Nationalist Movement (BNM) announcing candidates for 300 seats. Additionally, the Trinamool BNP, led by former BNP leaders Shamser Mubin Chowdhury and Taimur Alam Khondkar, has also entered the fray by declaring candidates for 300 seats.

Initially, the two newly registered parties were expected to participate in the elections as part of an alliance with the Awami League. However, a change of plans has led them to decide on contesting the polls independently. Sources from both parties have indicated that an agreement has been reached with the Awami League, securing them two seats each.

Meanwhile, separate sources have confirmed the Awami League's decision to allocate four seats to the Trinamool BNP.

The 14-party alliance led by the Awami League now comprises 12 parties, with the Ganoforum and the Communist Party of Bangladesh having withdrawn from the alliance prior to the 2014 elections. Notably, the BNP-Jamaat alliance also boycotted the 2014 elections. While the Awami League's ally parties secured 13 seats in that election, the Jatiya Party, headed by Hussain Muhammad Ershad, emerged as the opposition party in the parliament after securing 34 seats following an agreement with the Awami League before the polls.

In the 2018 national elections, the BNP-Jamaat alliance secured only six seats despite their participation. This time, the Jatiya Party, aligned with the Awami League, garnered 22 seats, emerging as the opposition party. Additionally, the 14-party alliance's partner parties secured 14 seats.

Hasanul Haque Inu, president of the Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JSD), a key partner of the 14-party alliance, affirmed their participation in the upcoming elections, stating, "Our final decision is that the alliance will participate in the election."

Workers Party President Rashed Khan Menon echoed this sentiment, confirming the alliance's participation while acknowledging the option for individual candidates to contest independently. He said, "Our final decision is that the 14 parties led by the Awami League will participate in the elections. However, there is an option for individual candidates to choose to run independently."

Dilip Barua, general secretary of the Bangladesh Communist Party (ML), and Sheikh Shahidul Islam, general secretary of the Jatiya Party (JP), expressed similar views.

Sheikh Shajada Syed Saifuddin Ahmed Maizbhandari, Chairman of the Bangladesh Supreme Party, said, "We formed an alliance called the Liberal Islamic Alliance, which comprised three registered political parties. However, we have now decided to participate in the upcoming election independently."

BNP also relies on small parties

Meanwhile, 20 registered parties, including the BNP, are actively engaged in a movement against the decision of holding the upcoming elections under a partisan government. Amid the detention and imprisonment of key BNP figures, these parties have resorted to demonstrations and protest actions, such as hartals and blockades, to express their solidarity with the BNP.

In the 2001 elections, a four-party alliance led by the BNP-Jamaat emerged victorious in the polls. In the subsequent 2014 and 2018 elections, the BNP-led alliance maintained its composition, with all parties except Jamaat remaining in the coalition.

Political analysts suggest that many smaller parties in Bangladesh, including Islamic and leftist parties, face a significant challenge in securing electoral victories. Consequently, these parties often form alliances with larger parties including the Awami League and the BNP making compromises.

While there have been instances of MPs from these parties, including some who have held ministerial positions, their overall influence in the political landscape remains limited, analysts say.