Will load shedding be severe this summer too?

Bazlur Rashid, an irrigation pump owner from Boyra village in Sarishabari upazila of Jamalpur, is already concerned about potential load shedding during the upcoming summer. He described several worrisome signs that have become evident even during the late winter, heightening his concerns.

"Today, I had to wait five hours just to irrigate only 18 decimals of land. Throughout this time, the electricity supply was inconsistent, with outages for three to four times. The temperature is not yet excessively hot; I am anxious about what will happen during summer," he told The Business Standard last Thursday.

He added that load shedding has persisted for six to seven hours daily over the past two to three days.

As winter nears its end, there have also been reports of load shedding from other parts of the country, especially in the rural areas.

Stakeholders warn that the upcoming summer may witness load shedding as severe as, or even worse than, in the previous year. Uncertainties over import of adequate fuel for power plants due to the dollar crisis, coupled with the forecast of less rainfall and hotter temperature in the upcoming summer, escalating electricity demand, and substantial dues in the electricity sector, make the outlook even grimmer.

According to the Power Grid Company of Bangladesh, distribution companies have implemented load shedding every two days since 21 January, with daily occurrences throughout February. Over the past few days, load shedding has ranged from a minimum of 50MW to a maximum of 650MW.

On 7 February, the Ministry of Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources issued a statement, urging farmers to run irrigation pumps from 11pm to 7am this season to mitigate load shedding and save electricity.

Last summer, load shedding exceeded 1,000MW, with about 25% of power generation capacity remaining idle due to fuel shortages. This resulted in two to three hours of outages in Dhaka and eight to ten hours in rural areas.

People, particularly the elderly and children, faced hardships during power outages amid temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius. The crisis led to early closure of shops and markets. Last year, during summer, severe water shortages were reported in several cities due to load shedding. Additionally, alongside the gas crisis, power outages disrupted the country's industries and trade.

In the upcoming summer, there is growing concern as meteorologists predict a prolonged hot season.

Mostofa Kamal Palash, meteorologist and PhD researcher at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, said, "Studies by Columbia University in the United States and analysis of American weather models indicate that Bangladesh can expect less than normal rainfall and higher temperatures from February to May compared to last year."

State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources, Nasrul Hamid, recently said the country's power plants have a total production capacity of 29,727MW of electricity.

On 8 February, the minister stated in parliament that in the previous summer in FY23, the peak generation reached 15,648MW on 19 April 2023. During that season, peak demand reached 16,000MW.

The minister anticipates that the potential demand for electricity will rise to about 17,500MW in the coming summer.

Mohammad Hossain, director general of Power Cell, a regulatory agency under the Ministry of Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources, told TBS, "The Power Division aims to generate over 16,000MW this year. Compared to last year, electricity demand has increased by 1,000MW. Therefore, I cannot guarantee that load shedding will decrease compared to last year."

He added, "If there is a disruption in fuel imports and a new crisis arises in fuel prices on the world market, there is a fear of load shedding ranging from 500MW to 1,500MW."

Debt burden on power sector

According to the Power Development Board (PDB), it currently has around Tk44,000 crore in dues to private power producers, government corporations, and other entities. To address this, the government plans to issue bonds worth Tk5,665 crore specifically for settling debts with private power producers.

Officials from the treasury and debt management department of the Finance Division said payments to all private power companies will be made gradually, requiring the issuance of bonds totaling around Tk15,000 crore.

Additionally, to ensure energy security, the Energy Division has recently entered into a loan agreement with the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation for around $2.1 billion to purchase oil and gas.

Since 2009, the country's reliance on imported energy has surged significantly, placing immense financial strain on the government. Insufficient foreign exchange reserves hinder gas and coal imports, leading to the government's struggle to meet over half of the nation's total electricity generation capacity last year.

Among the 170 power units, only 48 operated at full capacity during the previous summer, with 75 running at half capacity and 47 units remaining idle. Idle power plants incur substantial capacity charges, further worsening financial burdens.

Experts say the country's reliance on importing gas, LNG, and coal instead of domestic production is straining foreign reserves. They highlight that the power sector has accumulated additional debt by pursuing projects dependent on imports and borrowing.

Professor M Shamsul Alam, an energy expert, told TBS, "The primary issue lies in the 'confused policy' within this sector. Corruption, wastage, and mismanagement have escalated costs, while the quick enhancement of electricity and energy supply act has rendered investments in the sector uncompetitive."

He added that while the crisis in this sector can be temporarily alleviated through loans, without rectifying policy errors, achieving sustainable solutions and development to overcome the crisis will remain elusive.

Mohammad Hossain, director general of Power Cell, said, "The Power Division is actively addressing the situation, particularly focusing on uninterrupted power supply during the irrigation season, summer, and Ramadan."

Experts further highlight that investing in renewable energy infrastructure can mitigate reliance on imported or local energy sources, facilitating sustainable development in electricity generation and resolving crises at a comparatively lower cost.

Mohammad Hossain said, "Our current objective is to generate 10,000MW of electricity from renewable sources by 2030. Additionally, we have set a target of achieving 40% clean energy generation by 2041, with a particular emphasis on reducing carbon emissions."