Five possible scenarios of how the Ukraine war may end

As the war wages, hundreds of Ukrainians are losing their lives defending their homeland. Meanwhile, Russian soldiers too have been dying as they progress further into Ukraine. The West, cashing in on the Russian invasion, is spearheading crippling sanctions against Russia. 

This war has led to a crisis, not only for Ukraine but also for the Kremlin and the rest of the world. Countries like Bangladesh are also suffering from the indirect consequences of war. The prices of certain essentials are skyrocketing in the backdrop of the Russian invasion. 

People all over the world, irrespective of whether they are direct and indirect victims, want to see an end to this war. So, how is this war going to end? To answer that question we have compiled five possible scenarios.

Short war or the full conquest of Ukraine 

Russians were indeed expected to perform much better in the war against Ukraine. But the Ukrainians have been valiantly resisting the Russian aggression so far. However, despite Ukraine's strong showing, it has been only about two weeks and Russia has already conquered Ukraine's major cities. 

After the fall of Kyiv, which seems imminent, the Kremlin may topple Volodymyr Zelenskyy and install a 'friendly' government. President Putin, thus, claiming his mission a success, could wrap up the aggression. 

On the other hand, consider the Russian President's hour-long speech in the prelude to the attack and how he questioned the statehood of modern Ukraine and mentioned, quite passionately, its history of being a part of Soviet Russia. It could also be that Russia's objective is not limited only to toppling a pro-western government but annexing the whole country just like they did with Crimea. 

The Kremlin has already been launching devastating airstrikes on Ukraine. And at this speed, they have the capacity to annex the country within a few weeks. 

So, either way, this scenario gets us to an end of this war within a few weeks. 

A Chechnya-style prolonged warfare

The resistance of the Ukrainians that the world is seeing today came as a surprise. At the beginning of the Russian invasion, Ukrainians were expected to give up very soon. But that didn't happen. Instead, once a comedian and now the president of Ukraine, Zelenskyy, has stepped up with his brave leadership that not only solidified the mental strength of his military, it inspired thousands of Ukrainian civilians to take arms. 

The Ukrainian military now has a waiting list, as thousands have applied to join the military.  

So despite the superior military strengths, the Kremlin may find it increasingly hard to make the Ukrainians bend the knee, especially when they are receiving generous assistance in terms of weaponry from countries in the West. 

This war, as a result, may drag on for an unpredictably long time and take the form of an insurgency after the fall of Kyiv, just like the Chechnyan war did for the Russians in the 1990s. 

All out escalation

Call it a World War III or European war, this war has the capacity to escalate on many fronts. President Zelenskyy has been calling on NATO to declare Ukraine a no-fly zone and so far, NATO has refused. Any step in the wrong direction has the potential to escalate into a much larger war. 

For a better understanding of the scenario, suppose the Kremlin conquers Ukraine very soon and becomes confident enough to proceed with its geopolitical ambition in eastern Europe. Suppose it wants to repeat the assault in Ukraine in Georgia, a non-NATO country that once was a part of Soviet Russia. A little miscalculation here and there, from either NATO or Russia, can spell doom. 

Or suppose a NATO country somehow intervenes in Ukraine in some way that the Kremlin sees as equivalent to participating in war and retaliates by dragging the war on them. It would trigger Article 5 of NATO and an all-out war would spark. 

Diplomatic solution 

There are hundreds of people dying on both sides and Russia is on the verge of taking Kyiv. Is a diplomatic solution still a possibility? Yes. 

It has already been announced that the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine are set to meet in Turkey on Thursday. Besides, the talks between the Ukrainian and Russian delegates are currently underway at the Belarus border. 

It is not an easy task to find a solution by talking at this point, especially if we consider the Kremlin's latest condition to end the war that includes Ukraine recognising Russian ownership of Crimea, recognising two separatist regions as independent countries, and the disarmament of Kyiv. 

But suppose Russia stops being rigid on these conditions, and both sides step up for negotiations. Say NATO ensures they will not take in Ukraine; Kyiv promises to amend its constitution about not joining NATO and Russia withdraws its forces from mainland Ukraine and keeps the ownership of Crimea, along with a few parts of Donbas and Luhansk.  

In this bid, the Chinese could play a role by using its leverage on Moscow to bring them to the table. The United States has been trying to engage the Chinese in this regard for some time, although China is careful not to anger or pester the Russians. 

However, we have already seen two of China's largest state-owned banks (Bank of China and ICBC) announce their decision to restrict financing for purchases of Russian commodities. So, China playing a vital role in peacekeeping in eastern Europe also cannot be ruled out. 

Putin is ousted 

Suppose that Russians remain entangled in Ukraine for far too long. In the meantime, due to crippling sanctions from all around, even the Chinese get exasperated and more of their companies and banks start to sever business relations with Moscow. This scenario would severely affect Russia.

Perhaps this may not result in a disastrous quagmire or a retreat of Russia from Ukraine, but the financial state of affairs could enrage ordinary Russian citizens, some of whom are already protesting this war. Powerful Russian oligarchs are already speaking up against the war, as are many Russian celebrities. 

So Putin being dogged on to bring the Ukrainians to their knees, while hurting the Russians financially, could be very damaging to the political future of the strongman. 

It is highly unlikely, but not wholly impossible, that Putin could be ousted; and thus the Kremlin could end its Ukraine adventure.