Can China win the financial cold war?
Skip to main content
  • Home
  • Economy
  • Stocks
  • Analysis
  • World+Biz
  • Sports
  • Features
  • Epaper
  • More
    • Subscribe
    • COVID-19
    • Bangladesh
    • Splash
    • Videos
    • Games
    • Long Read
    • Infograph
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Thoughts
    • Podcast
    • Quiz
    • Tech
    • Archive
    • Trial By Trivia
    • Magazine
    • Supplement
  • বাংলা
The Business Standard

Tuesday
August 16, 2022

Sign In
Subscribe
  • Home
  • Economy
  • Stocks
  • Analysis
  • World+Biz
  • Sports
  • Features
  • Epaper
  • More
    • Subscribe
    • COVID-19
    • Bangladesh
    • Splash
    • Videos
    • Games
    • Long Read
    • Infograph
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Thoughts
    • Podcast
    • Quiz
    • Tech
    • Archive
    • Trial By Trivia
    • Magazine
    • Supplement
  • বাংলা
TUESDAY, AUGUST 16, 2022
Can China win the financial cold war?

Analysis

Andy Mukherjee and Nisha Gopalan, Bloomberg
07 August, 2020, 05:35 pm
Last modified: 07 August, 2020, 05:41 pm

Related News

  • China will step up policy support for economy, premier tells state media
  • US carries out ICBM test delayed during Chinese show-of-force over Taiwan
  • China to discourage abortions to boost low birth rate
  • Tencent plans to divest Meituan stake worth $24 billion
  • Trapped cash mangles China's policy plans

Can China win the financial cold war?

The US dominates the international system. Beijing’s best hope is for Washington to alienate its allies

Andy Mukherjee and Nisha Gopalan, Bloomberg
07 August, 2020, 05:35 pm
Last modified: 07 August, 2020, 05:41 pm
Followed by the money. Photo: Mert Alper Dervis/Anadolu Agency/Getty via Bloomberg
Followed by the money. Photo: Mert Alper Dervis/Anadolu Agency/Getty via Bloomberg

Chips, Chats, and Swift. They refer to the machinery of international finance that gives America extraordinary leverage. Like so much else, they're also weapons in the coming cold war between China and the US The People's Republic resents Washington's dominance over global payments and wants its own alternative.

Some of these acronyms have surfaced in a court case in Vancouver,[1] where Huawei Technologies Co.'s finance chief is battling extradition to the US on bank fraud charges brought by the Department of Justice. Meng Wanzhou's case is instructive. The Huawei founder's daughter is accused of deceiving banks, including HSBC Holdings Plc, into clearing millions of dollars in violation of US sanctions against Iran.

There's plenty of finger-pointing, though the one crucial dispute that keeps coming up involves $100 million in transactions between 2010 and 2014 that HSBC processed for Skycom, a Hong Kong company that sold equipment in Iran. Huawei calls Skycom a  "business partner" and the Justice Department says it was an unofficial subsidiary. Doing business with Iran in itself doesn't violate sanctions laws, as long as such activity doesn't involve US entities, persons or equipment. But HSBC routed the money through the Clearing House Interbank Payments System, or Chips, meaning the money was technically on American soil. 

Chips handles 95% of all dollar transactions, or $1.6 trillion a day. After moving through an elaborate correspondent banking network, most international transfers gravitate to this New York private club, whose 43 members settle the payments using a pre-funded account at the Federal Reserve. They all maintain US offices, and are subject to US law. Huawei argues that that since HSBC knew of its Skycom links, the bank should have cleared the funds through the Clearing House Automated Transfer System, or Chats, an offshore dollar clearing system in Hong Kong.

The reality, though, is more complex. When money crosses borders, it's accompanied by instructions transmitted by the Brussels-based Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or Swift. Since the Sept. 11 attacks, the US has pressed the European Union hard to let it use Swift as a "financial data panopticon" and choke point, according to political scientists Henry Farrell and Abraham L. Newman. Hong Kong's US dollar Chats has run on Swift messaging since 2009. Had HSBC settled Huawei's payment offshore, the US could still have known — and found a way to punish it.

Beijing doesn't want to do business this way. It's upset by the weaponization of global finance to meet American foreign policy objectives. US interference in dealings with Iran or North Korea is bad enough. Now, the Trump administration has vowed sanctions against mainland and Hong Kong officials for eroding the city's autonomy, and to punish banks that deal with them. This potentially threatens more of China's elite, and comes at a time of a broader downward spiral in relations.

An alternative to the US-dominated web is sketched out in a recent report by Bank of China Ltd.'s investment banking unit, written by a former foreign-exchange regulator: Use Cips, China's fledgling Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, which settles international claims in yuan and can potentially use its own messaging protocol. Guan Tao, BOC International's chief economist, also suggests suspending the use of the dollar for foreign exchange controls and for Beijing to copy the European Union's Blocking Statute to maintain trade relations with US-sanctioned nations. "A good punch to the enemy will save yourself from hundreds of punches,"  according to a Reuters translation of the report.

For a knockout, China will need three separations: from Swift, from Chips, and from the dollar itself. The last will be especially hard. Such is China Inc.'s hunger for the US currency that its banking system has $1 trillion in observed dollar liabilities, a risky dependence for a country that doesn't enjoy a swap line with the Fed. It could get worse. Some advisers of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have discussed cutting Hong Kong banks' access to the greenback: a nuclear strike against the city's 37-year-old dollar peg.

The dollar's exorbitant privilege isn't unshakable. A coalition of US foreign policy targets — North Korea, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and now China and Hong Kong — may be a nonstarter. But what if the US over-reaches and its own allies revolt? The Europeans bristled after President Donald Trump reimposed sanctions on Iran. They could seek to replace correspondent banking — and Swift messaging — with a digital euro based on cryptography. China can internationalize its digital yuan.

For banks caught in the middle, this is a danger zone. HSBC has been in China's doghouse since Meng's arrest in December 2018. An opinion piece in the Communist Party's People's Daily newspaper last month said the bank was a US accomplice and had fabricated evidence against Huawei. HSBC has denied colluding with the US or "framing" the company. It said in its July 25 statement that the "objective facts" it gave the Justice Department were in response to the latter's requests. (HSBC is not a party to the case.)

The British lender gets more than a third of its revenue from Hong Kong, and endorsed the controversial national security law that China recently imposed on the territory. Yet the bank can't afford to upset Washington. In 2017, HSBC ended a five-year deferred prosecution agreement after paying the Justice Department a then-record $1.9 billion fine for helping Mexican drug cartels launder money.

Beijing is embroiled in a trade spat with Washington and a technology tussle with the wider West  — also involving Huawei. However, the battle for money will be the most crucial. Syracuse University professor Daniel McDowell argues that the more the US wields its unmatched financial power, the less it may have left.  That's just what might give China an opening in this cold war.


  1. The case is being heard in the Supreme Court of British Columbia under case file 27761.

Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies and financial services. He previously was a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews. He has also worked for the Straits Times, ET NOW and Bloomberg News.

Nisha Gopalan is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering deals and banking. She previously worked for the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones as an editor and a reporter.


Disclaimer: This article first appeared on Bloomberg.com, and is published by special syndication arrangement.


 

Top News / Global Economy

china / US

Comments

While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderation decisions are subjective. Published comments are readers’ own views and The Business Standard does not endorse any of the readers’ comments.

Top Stories

  • A diesel fuel tank at a supplier in the US.Photographer: Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg
    A storm brews in heating oil
  • Photo: TBS
    The girder was hoisted without safety measures, says Uttara tragedy survivor
  • Bilkis Bano, one of the survivors of the Gujarat riot victims.(AP Photo)
    Eleven convicts in Gujarat gang rape, murder cases freed in India

MOST VIEWED

  • Cap: Liquefied natural gas prices in Asia are now near $50 per million British thermal units. Photo: Reuters
    World embraces dirtier fuels as gas hits exorbitant heights
  • Asia analysts predict biggest profit drop since pandemic started
    Asia analysts predict biggest profit drop since pandemic started
  • Infigraphic: TBS
    The dollar crunch chronicles
  • The logo of Italian payments group Nexi is pictured outside their headquarters in Milan, Italy, March 28, 2019. REUTERS/Alessandro Garofalo/File Photo
    Bruised by a valuation freefall, payments companies brace for M&A
  • TBS file image
    There are ways to lessen the burden of fuel price hike. Countries show how
  • The fuel price hike is triggering a chain effect on the whole economy on top of making lives costlier - and for many unaffordable - for the masses. Photo: Rajib Dhar/TBS
    BPC says it can’t afford any more losses. Not everyone is convinced

Related News

  • China will step up policy support for economy, premier tells state media
  • US carries out ICBM test delayed during Chinese show-of-force over Taiwan
  • China to discourage abortions to boost low birth rate
  • Tencent plans to divest Meituan stake worth $24 billion
  • Trapped cash mangles China's policy plans

Features

Photo: Collected

Welcome to the age of glass facades

7h | Habitat
Photo: Mumit M/TBS

Why artificial oyster reefs are the answer to our coastal embankments problems

7h | Panorama
Illustration: TBS

Anwar Group: From comb maker to owner of 20 companies

8h | Panorama
TBS Sketch

Bangabandhu and the spirit of Liberation War were killed in 1975

1d | Supplement

More Videos from TBS

Cumilla agro entrepreneur gains success in growing tea in Lalmai hills

Cumilla agro entrepreneur gains success in growing tea in Lalmai hills

2h | Videos
Footage of tragic accident in Uttara

Footage of tragic accident in Uttara

3h | Videos
Indian FM Jaishankar's video shown at Imran Khan's rally

Indian FM Jaishankar's video shown at Imran Khan's rally

9h | Videos
Experts advise on uniform exchange rate to deal with dollar crisis

Experts advise on uniform exchange rate to deal with dollar crisis

9h | Videos

Most Read

1
Dollar crisis: BB orders removal of 6 banks’ treasury chiefs 
Banking

Dollar crisis: BB orders removal of 6 banks’ treasury chiefs 

2
From left Afzal Karim, Murshedul Kabir and Mohammad Jahangir
Banking

Sonali, Agrani and Rupali banks get new MDs

3
Photo: TBS
Bangladesh

5 crushed to death as BRT girder falls on car in Uttara

4
Dollar price drops by Tk8 in kerb market
Economy

Dollar price drops by Tk8 in kerb market

5
Representational Image. Photo: Collected
Bangladesh

Air passengers should plan extra commute time to airport: DMP

6
Photo: Collected
Transport

Will Tokyo’s traffic model solve Dhaka’s gridlocks?

EMAIL US
[email protected]
FOLLOW US
WHATSAPP
+880 1847416158
The Business Standard
  • About Us
  • Contact us
  • Sitemap
  • Privacy Policy
  • Comment Policy
Copyright © 2022
The Business Standard All rights reserved
Technical Partner: RSI Lab

Contact Us

The Business Standard

Main Office -4/A, Eskaton Garden, Dhaka- 1000

Phone: +8801847 416158 - 59

Send Opinion articles to - [email protected]

For advertisement- [email protected]