New 2020 election model predicts landslide loss for Trump due to economy
Before the health-crisis, the model predicted that Trump would win about 55 per cent of the popular vote
The economic recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic would cause Trump to suffer a "historic defeat" in November, a national election model released on Wednesday by Oxford Economics predicted.
Using unemployment, disposable income and inflation to project election outcomes, the model predicts Trump would lose in a landslide, winning only 35 per cent of the popular vote, reports CNN.
Before the health-crisis, the model predicted that Trump would win about 55 per cent of the popular vote.
"It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favour Trump," Oxford Economics wrote in the report, adding that the economy will be a "nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November."
The model is said to have correctly predicted the popular vote in every election since 1948, other than 1968 and 1976.
The report said that the downturn has emerged in light of the poor economic backdrop the country now faces, and the model assumes that this would still be the case by the time of the election.
"The economy would still be in a worse state than at the depth of the Great Depression," Oxford Economics said.
Experts have also said that the outcome of the election could still very much depend on how the pandemic pans out in the next six months.
"If new infections really pick up, people will conclude Trump opened the country too soon," Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments told CNN. "But if new infections drop, Trump will get some credit."
Experts also note that the six months run-up to polling day could give Trump time to reframe his campaign against Joe Biden and pass the blame of coronavirus onto China.
Voter turnout could also swing the election one way or another, according to the report.
However, researchers admit it has "inherent limitations", excluding non-economic factors such as a candidate's agenda or likeability.
"Traditional models work in normal times. But we're not in normal times right now," Valliere said.
