Gas, inflation and time to hit the shops
Skip to main content
  • Home
  • Economy
    • Aviation
    • Bazaar
    • Budget
    • Industry
    • NBR
    • RMG
    • Corporates
  • Stocks
  • Analysis
  • World+Biz
  • Sports
  • Features
    • Book Review
    • Brands
    • Earth
    • Explorer
    • Fact Check
    • Family
    • Food
    • Game Reviews
    • Good Practices
    • Habitat
    • Humour
    • In Focus
    • Luxury
    • Mode
    • Panorama
    • Pursuit
    • Wealth
    • Wellbeing
    • Wheels
  • Epaper
  • More
    • Subscribe
    • Videos
    • Thoughts
    • Splash
    • Bangladesh
    • Supplement
    • Infograph
    • Archive
    • COVID-19
    • Games
    • Long Read
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Podcast
    • Quiz
    • Tech
    • Trial By Trivia
    • Magazine
  • বাংলা
The Business Standard

Tuesday
February 07, 2023

Sign In
Subscribe
  • Home
  • Economy
    • Aviation
    • Bazaar
    • Budget
    • Industry
    • NBR
    • RMG
    • Corporates
  • Stocks
  • Analysis
  • World+Biz
  • Sports
  • Features
    • Book Review
    • Brands
    • Earth
    • Explorer
    • Fact Check
    • Family
    • Food
    • Game Reviews
    • Good Practices
    • Habitat
    • Humour
    • In Focus
    • Luxury
    • Mode
    • Panorama
    • Pursuit
    • Wealth
    • Wellbeing
    • Wheels
  • Epaper
  • More
    • Subscribe
    • Videos
    • Thoughts
    • Splash
    • Bangladesh
    • Supplement
    • Infograph
    • Archive
    • COVID-19
    • Games
    • Long Read
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Podcast
    • Quiz
    • Tech
    • Trial By Trivia
    • Magazine
  • বাংলা
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 07, 2023
Gas, inflation and time to hit the shops

Global Economy

Reuters
19 November, 2021, 08:55 pm
Last modified: 19 November, 2021, 09:09 pm

Related News

  • Oil falls about 3% as strong US jobs data prompt interest rate concerns
  • Oil heads for weekly loss awaiting China recovery signs
  • Oil climbs as dollar slumps, OPEC+ keeps output cut policy
  • Bangladesh proposes Saudi Arabia supply crude oil on deferred payment basis
  • Oil steadies after falling on rate hike worries, Russian crude flows

Gas, inflation and time to hit the shops

US shoppers gear up for Black Friday while investors will scour inflation data and Fed minutes for hints on the impact of price pressures on interest rates

Reuters
19 November, 2021, 08:55 pm
Last modified: 19 November, 2021, 09:09 pm
Gas, inflation and time to hit the shops

Rising geopolitical tensions across central and eastern Europe and climbing gas prices should keep markets on edge in the week to come.

US shoppers gear up for Black Friday while investors will scour inflation data and Fed minutes for hints on the impact of price pressures on interest rates. And, just how far will Kiwi rates fly?

Blowing hot and cold

Russia-West ties have been at their frostiest since the Cold War for a while - but could they turn hot? Russia's Vladimir Putin says the West is not heeding "red lines", warning against deploying NATO infrastructure in Ukraine. Russian troop movements at Ukraine's borders have led NATO to warn it was standing by Kyiv.

Ukrainian bond prices have slumped, Moscow's markets are waking up to fresh risk, Poland and Hungary have seen currencies and stocks fall hard. But much of the conflict is playing out on natural gas markets, where a 350% price surge this year will fan inflation and hurt growth.

Markets are also on alert for tensions flaring around Russia's $11 billion Nordstream 2 pipeline, opposed by the US and Ukraine, supported by Germany. A suspension of its certification saw Russian gas flows to Europe ease, pushing prices back towards 100 euros a megawatt hour .

Uneven breakevens

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's November meeting on Wednesday should provide clues on its take on inflation.

US consumer prices rising at the fastest pace in more than three decades in October and accelerating inflation expectations have lifted expectations that the Fed will need to speed up tapering of asset purchases and hike rates faster-than-expected.

The 5-year and 10-year breakeven rate - the yield spread between inflation protected and normal Treasuries - stand at record highs. More fodder comes from Wednesday's reading of the October personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - expected to rise to 0.4%, according to a Reuters poll.

Retail rodeo

Black Friday kicks off the key holiday shopping period and news has been mostly good for retailers in recent months as a vaccine-fueled US reopening sent shoppers back into stores.

That's been reflected in retailers' shares: The S&P 500 retailing exchange-traded fund is up 15% this quarter, compared with a 9% gain for the S&P 500. Consumer discretionary earnings growth - including many retailers - has risen to 14.5% from 8% at the start of October, Refinitiv data shows.

But global supply-chain bottlenecks crimping inventories and pushing up prices remain a worry: Walmart  shares tumbled after high labour and supply chain costs ate into margins.

Soaring inflation also has markets worried about consumers tightening their belts. But recent retail sales numbers made for happier reading, showing October sales surging as Americans started shopping early to beat supply shortages.

Retailers have had a good year so far, with several of them outperforming the broader market

Growth vs Covid

The flash November purchasing managers' index (PMI), a key forward looking economic indicator, is due out from a host of major economies in coming days -- the United States, Australia, Britain and the euro area.

Market focus is on what impact price pressures and supply bottlenecks are having on business activity and whether these are abating. Euro area PMIs, which have held up well, could provide a sense of what toll a resurgent Covid-19 is taking.

Germany's Angela Merkel warns the coronavirus situation in the powerhouse economy is dramatic, the Netherlands is in partial lockdown and pressure is mounting on Austria to do more. But vaccine rollouts and the reassuring - and hefty - presence of ECB stimulus ease some of those worries.

A not so flightless kiwi

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to move deeper into the vanguard of inflation fighters on Wednesday, and deliver a second rate hike in as many months.

Since October, when the RBNZ joined Norway as developed markets' first hikers, inflation has surged to a decade high and the unemployment rate has sunk to record lows.

Traders are sure rates will go up, and are focused on two hawkish risks: A roughly 40% chance that the hike is a chunky 50 bps one, and the bank lifts its long-term rates outlook. ,

Either could hoist the kiwi higher, though both bring risks to local borrowers already squeezed by the fastest pace of mortgage rate rises in 15 years.

Top News / World+Biz / USA

Oil / Gas Crisis / Global inflation

Comments

While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderation decisions are subjective. Published comments are readers’ own views and The Business Standard does not endorse any of the readers’ comments.

Top Stories

  • Illustration: TBS
    Foreign aid for national budget drops by $1 billion: Finance Minister
  • Infographic: TBS
    FDI from US halves after sanctions
  • Photo: Mumit M
    RMG factories running below capacity due to less work orders: BGMEA chief

MOST VIEWED

  • A policeman walks past the Supreme Court building in Islamabad, Pakistan October 31, 2018. REUTERS/Faisal Mahmood/File Photo
    Pakistan supreme court orders taxpayers to deposit 50pc super tax in seven days
  • A wooden case holding US dollars bills on display at the Sara-e Shahzada exchange market in Kabul in October 2022.Source: Bloomberg
    Dollars smuggled from Pakistan provide lifeline for the Taliban
  • Photo: Collected
    Indonesia to review its palm oil export quota ratio -ministry
  • People wait their turn to get fuel at a petrol station, in Karachi, Pakistan June 2, 2022. Picture taken June 2, 2022. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro/File Photo
    Pakistan, IMF grapple for consensus to unlock critical funding
  • Indian billionaire Gautam Adani speaks during an inauguration ceremony after the Adani Group completed the purchase of Haifa Port earlier in January 2023, in Haifa port, Israel January 31, 2023. REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo
    Adani sell-off extends; India's opposition lawmakers launch protests
  • People shop for cooking oil made from oil palms at a supermarket in Jakarta, Indonesia, March 27, 2022. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/Files
    Indonesia to suspend some palm oil export permits - senior official

Related News

  • Oil falls about 3% as strong US jobs data prompt interest rate concerns
  • Oil heads for weekly loss awaiting China recovery signs
  • Oil climbs as dollar slumps, OPEC+ keeps output cut policy
  • Bangladesh proposes Saudi Arabia supply crude oil on deferred payment basis
  • Oil steadies after falling on rate hike worries, Russian crude flows

Features

Nimah designed by Compass Architects- Wooden tiles. Photo: Junaid Hasan Pranto

Trendy flooring designs to upgrade any space

8h | Habitat
Benefits of having high ceilings in your new home

Benefits of having high ceilings in your new home

8h | Habitat
Each Reverse Osmosi plant can produce approximately 8,000 litres of drinking water a day for around 250 families. Photo: Sadiqur Rahman

A drop in the ocean of persistent water crisis

9h | Panorama
Photo: Collected

Get your partner a lovely present this Valentine's Day

1d | Brands

More Videos from TBS

30% companies see double-digit growth even in hard times

30% companies see double-digit growth even in hard times

28m | TBS Insight
Challenging time waiting for RMG

Challenging time waiting for RMG

7h | TBS Round Table
"Full Moon Meditation" organized by Department of Theater and Performance Studies, University of Dhaka

"Full Moon Meditation" organized by Department of Theater and Performance Studies, University of Dhaka

7h | TBS Graduates
10 cricketers who have played over 400 T20 matches

10 cricketers who have played over 400 T20 matches

7h | TBS SPORTS

Most Read

1
Photo: Courtesy
Panorama

From 'Made in Bangladesh' to 'Designed in Bangladesh'

2
Leepu realised his love for cars from a young age and for the last 40 years, he has transformed, designed and customised hundreds of cars. Photo: Collected
Panorama

'I am not crazy about cars anymore': Nizamuddin Awlia Leepu

3
Master plan for futuristic Chattogram city in the making
Districts

Master plan for futuristic Chattogram city in the making

4
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, U.S., September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
Economy

IMF approves $4.7 billion loan for Bangladesh, calls for ambitious reforms

5
Belal Ahmed new acting chairman of SIBL
Banking

Belal Ahmed new acting chairman of SIBL

6
Photo: Collected
Crime

Prime Distribution MD Mamun arrested in fraud case

EMAIL US
[email protected]
FOLLOW US
WHATSAPP
+880 1847416158
The Business Standard
  • About Us
  • Contact us
  • Sitemap
  • Privacy Policy
  • Comment Policy
Copyright © 2023
The Business Standard All rights reserved
Technical Partner: RSI Lab

Contact Us

The Business Standard

Main Office -4/A, Eskaton Garden, Dhaka- 1000

Phone: +8801847 416158 - 59

Send Opinion articles to - [email protected]

For advertisement- [email protected]