Next 4 months crucial for Bangladesh's politics
We will have to wait till March 2023 to see in what ways the political situation in the country takes turns. For example, there was no major change in the Awami League leadership in its recently held national council. But it may be a strategy as they may not do well by reshuffling their leadership.
Till now, it seems that the ruling Awami League wants to compete with the opposition by participating in a credible election. The next general election may not be like the past two elections on the ground level. The next one has to be more credible and I think the Awami League also wants it that way.
A situation is expected to be created so that all political parties can take part in the next election. It will not be possible for the Awami League to hold the next election like the previous two as the political, economic and geopolitical circumstances have changed a lot this time.
It is hoped that Awami League will try to remain in power by holding a more credible election. For this reason, it has already begun taking preparations. However, the movement of the other political parties remains to be seen in the coming days.
We will have to wait till March because the economic conditions, especially the situation of export and import, and problems in opening letters of credit (LCs), may shape the political strategy. We have to see how long this situation lingers. We have to wait and observe the economic situation quarter by quarter.
Now the source of money for the government is the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Bangladesh is taking loans from IMF adhering to the conditions set by the global lender. The people in IMF also want to see a credible election.
The recent arrests of the major opposition leaders can be a political strategy. Look, they are not criminals, and so it can be a political stunt or a tactic for negotiation. As of now, there is no certainty when the political situation will take turns. There can be a negotiated settlement for bringing opposition parties to the election. We will have to wait and see.
Though not enough, the BNP has gained momentum to a degree which was not seen in the past few years. I think the BNP will try to keep on the momentum even though many of its senior leaders are in prison now. Not only the BNP, but anti-establishment factors are also working here. It is not yet clear whether they can cash in on the momentum or capitulate as the Jatiya Party did under the ruling party's pressure.
In January, it will be possible to analyse these issues more closely. There may be a chance of violence because the political environment during the election year has never been peaceful in the country. Besides, violence is already happening. A few days back a man (a local BNP leader in Panchagarh) was killed when a clash ensued during BNP's procession.
The degree of violence may increase further when the two major political parties engage in more intense confrontations. I think the next three to four months are a very important period for Bangladesh's politics.
TBS Senior Feature Writer Ariful Islam Mithu talked with the former election commissioner