June 2023: Calls for solution to political impasse grow louder; St Martin comes under limelight

It was an unprecedented year full of events turning Bangladesh into a proxy battleground of global superpowers. Nationally, the divisions also ran deep. In this series titled Hasina's Playbook, we provide accounts from our journalist's diary chronicling the final year of Hasina. This part deals with June 2023. 

After completion of the five city corporation polls held in phases in between May and June amid a boycott by the BNP, the main challenger of Awami League in any electoral race, a deafening chorus of praise was repeated ad nauseam throughout.

Here was evidence that elections could be held under the Hasina-led government and the incumbent Election Commission. The road was paved  for the parliamentary election in January to be held under this model. 

BNP, meanwhile, was also also happy with the outcomes of the city polls as those appeared less competitive and recorded low turnout of voters. 

The party believed these were a reflection of its effective strategy to expose the people's lack of confidence in elections under the AL government.

BNP not only boycotted the polls, it also expelled dozens of party leaders who joined the electoral race for city councilor posts defying party decision and prevented many activists and followers from exercising their franchise.

The EC, however, expressed satisfaction at the manner of how the polls were held although its capacity and efficiency were not fully tested in the largely peaceful, but less competitive elections.

The BNP boycott also meant an easy victory in all five city polls for the AL.

Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal-led EC knew that the elections to the five city corporations was an opportunity for them to gain the trust of voters and political parties ahead of the next parliamentary polls.

On 13 June, after completion of the polls to three cities -- Gazipur, Khulna and Barishal – the CEC said: "We're very satisfied. People, the voters, the candidates and the representatives of the media are satisfied."

The then prime minister Sheikh Hasina and her party leaders on several occasions claimed the credit for peaceful city polls.

On 22 June at a meeting of the Awami League Central Working Committee, AL chief Hasina said: "We have proved that the election under the Awami League government could be free and none can make complaints against it."

What happened before the polls, however, was left unspoken.

An attack on Islami Andolon Barishal city's mayoral candidate, who had emerged as the main challenger of the ruling AL candidate on polling day, drew strong criticism from the opposition camp.

Islami Andolon declared a boycott of the polls.

The attack also prompted the BNP leaders to claim that it showed people had no right or the bare minimum scope to vote freely under the government.

In a statement on 12 June, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir said it was once again proven that fair elections were not possible under the current government.

He also questioned the efficiency of the Election Commission and the polling atmosphere, saying the commission had failed to conduct a truly participatory election. 

The ground reality and past records also were in favour of the opposition party's claim.

The last two parliamentary elections of 2014 and 2018 and polls to numerous local government bodies held over the past one-and-a-half decade were neither free nor fair. 

Of the two national polls, the BNP boycotted the one in 2014 and joined the last one in 2018, which was labelled by many as "midnight elections".

The demand for restoration of a non-partisan polls time government remained firmly in place.

To bolster its demand, it brought in the Supreme Court cancellation of the caretaker government amendment.

The party said the apex court allowed holding two more parliamentary elections under the caretaker government system.

The fact is no free and fair parliamentary polls have been held under the partisan government in the life span of Bangladesh. 

Of around a dozen parliamentary polls, the country has witnessed only four elections which were largely free and fair. 

All were held under a caretaker government led by non-partisan individuals.

A barrage of international letters, calls

Bangladesh's development partners and international organisations kept voicing concerns over the human rights condition in the country and called for measures to improve the situation. 

They also stressed the need for ensuring a free and fair parliamentary election.

Diplomats of different countries stationed in Dhaka also held meetings with political parties in search of an end to the stalemate.

On 2 June, US Congressman Bob Good issued a statement on his official website including a letter, dated 25 May, confirming that he, along with five other Congressmen, had written to President Joe Biden, calling for urgent actions to stop the "human rights abuses" by the Bangladesh government and "give the people of Bangladesh the best possible chance for free and fair parliamentary elections".

The letters soon went viral, with many considering it a watershed.

Referring to reports by Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, Freedom House, and the UN, the congressmen also mentioned "increasingly repudiated democratic systems", rights abuses, extrajudicial killings, persecution of minorities, shrinking space for freedom of speech and attacks on peaceful protesters.

They stressed the need for appropriate measures so people in Bangladesh could exercise their voting rights freely in the upcoming election.

On 12 June, six European parliamentarians in a joint letter urged the High Representative of the parliament to take actions to restore democracy in Bangladesh.

In the letter, they asked the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, also the vice-president of the European Commission, to take necessary measures while engaging in constant dialogue with Bangladesh authorities on the human rights agenda.

The potential measures sought against Bangladesh included restriction of entry into the EEA zone of those responsible for and complicit in the human rights abuses and issuance of regular reminders of the conditions for the GSP+ incentive.

On 12 June, New York-based Human Rights Watch urged United Nations under-secretary-general Jean-Pierre Lacroix to publicly voice concerns during his June visit to Bangladesh over rights abuses by government security forces.

In a call, Bruno Stagno Ugarte, the chief advocacy officer at HRW, said Bangladesh security forces, in particular, the Rapid Action Battalion, had long been implicated in serious human rights violations.

"However, as it's currently being implemented, this policy fails to ensure Bangladeshi troops that have engaged in abuses at home are not deployed with UN missions abroad," he said.

"In Bangladesh, systematic human rights screening by the UN is applied only at higher ranks and otherwise left to the National Human Rights Commission, which has limited purview over security forces.

"Bangladesh's weak enforcement of this policy reinforces a message that grave rights violations will not preclude one from service under the UN flag, presenting a moral hazard for the UN," he said.

On June 23, Amnesty International urged the United Nations to ensure that rights violators in Bangladesh do not get deployed on peacekeeping missions.

"United Nations Under Secretary General Jean Pierre Lacroix must prioritise a review of human rights violations by the security forces in Bangladesh during his visit to the country…"

The news of an upcoming visit by EU election exploratory mission to Dhaka to assess the situation on the ground ahead of the country's next national election indicated that the supra state would take a stance on it this time. 

The US Under Secretary for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights, Uzra Zeya, also set a visit to Bangladesh in July. 

All the developments suggested Bangladesh would face more scrutiny by the international community ahead of the parliamentary polls.

Was dialogue a doorway to resolution? 

With both sides entrenched in their respective positions, AL senior leader Amir Hossain Amu on 6 June hinted at the possibility of talks between the government and the opposition with a view to resolving election issues with the mediation of an UN representative.

This did not go down well with the ruling party.

The next day, AL general secretary Obaidul Quader clarified the ruling party's stance and termed Amu's statement on holding talks with the opposition BNP under UN mediation his personal view.  

"In our country, we will discuss our own problems. We will solve it by ourselves if necessary. There is no such political crisis in the country that requires the mediation or intervention of the United Nations," he said. 

This wasn't always the case.

An emergency in the making

The AL-led grand alliance chief Hasina resorted to all possible means to stop her rival BNP-led coalition from holding the parliamentary polls scheduled for January 22, 2007.

Hasina sought a UN-mediated election rather than the prospect of the general election under the then caretaker government led by Iajuddin Ahmed, according to US diplomatic cables leaked by WikiLeaks in 2011.

"Hasina wrote to the UN Secretary General in December [2006] asking for UN monitoring of the election," reads a January 7, 2007, cable sent by the then US ambassador to Dhaka Patricia A Butenis. 

She, along with the then British high commissioner Anwar Chowdhury, had met the AL president the day before.

"Hasina expressed some interest in a UN mediated election, but it was clear she envisioned an election effectively run by the UN and not just UN mediation of the political issues separating the two major political alliances," the cable added according to a report by The Daily Star on 13 September 2011.

As Bangladesh plunged into deep political turmoil in 2006, the diplomatic efforts to find a solution to the crisis were amped up.

A European Union Troika also visited Dhaka for the first time between 23-25 January 2006 to facilitate talks between the parties to resolve the political stalemate over the selection of the chief advisor of the election time caretaker government.

During their visit, the troika met with the then ruling party's secretary general Abdul Mannan Bhuiyan, foreign minister and opposition leader Sheikh Hasina and representatives of civil society and the international diplomatic community.

"The EU recognises the next general election as a key milestone for democracy in Bangladesh. Peaceful, free and fair elections in 2007 would also send an important signal to the international community that a durable democracy is being cultivated," said the press release.

"The EU considers the caretaker government and the constitutional office of an independent and impartial Election Commission of Bangladesh as principal guarantors for free and fair elections. It is vital that there is cross-party confidence in both institutions and that an active dialogue between the parties is pursued on electoral reform issues to ensure this."

But the efforts to solve the crisis resulted in the two-year long emergency regime. 

The election scheduled in January 2007 was finally held at the end of 2008. 

People sighed with relief. 

The new storm

After cancellation of the caretaker government system in 2011 by the then AL-led government, Bangladesh again braced for the political crisis over the arrangement of polls time government.  

In December 2013, a year before the next polls, UN Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs Oscar Fernandez-Taranco arrived in Dhaka.

During his around a weeklong visit, Taranco had a series of meetings with then PM Hasina, BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia, Foreign Minister AH Mahmood Ali, Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Rakibuddin and other political leaders.

The leaders of the Awami League and the BNP, in his presence, had two meetings to discuss the interim government issue, while the third meeting was held two days after he had left the country.

The stalemate over the mode of the polls time government was not solved. 

The 2014 elections were held amid a boycott by the BNP. 

That election set a record of 153 MP seats won uncontested out of 300.

Before the 2018 parliamentary elections, the then PM Hasina opened talks with opposition parties and assured that the election would be free and fair.

But her assurance was not converted into action resulting in a "controversial election" again.

Records of talks held in the last three decades since the restoration of democracy in the country show that the crisis was resolved and the political situation improved whenever dialogues between political parties became successful.

However, whenever talks collapsed, it had disastrous consequences. 

On every occasion, the dialogue results cost the country's people, economy and democracy dearly. 

It happened between 1994-96, in 2006 and 2013.

Loaded rhetoric

Use of loaded languages by politicians is a very familiar thing in Bangladesh politics as they are not held accountable for their claims.  

On 21 June in a press conference the then PM Hasina firmly stated that she would not resort to selling any national assets or compromising the country's sovereignty to stay in power.

"I don't want to return to power by leasing out St Martin's Island," she said in a press conference at the Ganobhaban over the outcomes of her recent visits to Switzerland and Qatar.

She did not name any country interested in taking the lease of Saint Martin's Island.

A week earlier, Rashed Khan Menon and Hasanul Haq Inu, two top leaders of the Workers Party and Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal respectively – both partners of the AL-led 14 party alliance – in parliamentary speech claimed that the US was interested in Saint Martin's Island. 

Menon asserted that the United States was after Saint Martin's Island and that the new US visa policy was part of a strategy for "regime change".

"The US wants Saint Martin's Island and they want Bangladesh in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue [Quad]. They are doing everything to destabilise the current government," he said.

On June 27, the US Department of State rejected all allegations in regard to taking over Saint Martin's Island in Bangladesh.

During a press conference on 27 June, Matthew Miller, spokesperson for the US Department of State, asserted that the United States had never engaged in any discussions regarding taking control of St Martin's Island or had any intention to do so.

This, however, is not the first time that such concerns surfaced centring Saint Martin's Island.

Previously in 2003, the then US Ambassador Mary Ann Peters ruled out media speculations where it was being said that Washington was desperate to lease a military base from Dhaka to station its forces somewhere between the Far and Middle East(s).

"The United States has no plans, no requirement, and no desire for a military base on St. Martin's Island, Chittagong, or anywhere else in Bangladesh," she said, on 2 July 2003, in a public programme.

Referring to previous governments' actions, Hasina in the the June 21 press conference drew attention to the circumstances under which the BNP came to power in 2001, alleging that the party had promised to sell gas reserves.

"The BNP came to power in 2001 by giving undertakings to sell gas. Now they want to sell the country. They want to come to power through undertaking to sell St Martin's," she said.

However, there is no record of either selling or exporting gas to any country during the five-year tenure of the then BNP government.

Search for allies gains momentum? 

As donor countries kept speaking for free and fair election, on 7 June Hasina said  the people of Bangladesh would never bow down to any foreign pressure.

"No matter how much domestic and foreign pressure comes, the Bengalis will never bow down to that pressure," she said in a discussion programme.

Then on June 21 in the press conference  Hasina said Bangladesh wanted to be a part of the BRICS coalition, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa to diversify relations.

In the previous week during her visit to Geneva, she held a discussion in this regard with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, she said.

"We were with BRICS from the time of its formation. Now we officially want to be its member as our plan is to have diverse options when it comes to development and bilateral relations. We do not want to depend on just one or two options for the overall growth of our country."

China's support stays unwavering

On 14 June, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, accused the US of meddling in Bangladesh and others' internal issues "under the pretext of democracy and human rights". 

China said Hasina's remarks against US sanctions were "not just the strong position of the Bangladeshi people, but also the mind of a large part of the international community, especially the developing world."

Indian English daily, The Telegraph, on June 15, in an online article focused on India and China's position on latest development centering Bangladesh's upcoming election.

Under the headline "Beijing beats New Delhi in race to aid" the newspaper said Beijing had beaten New Delhi in the race to stand by the Sheikh Hasina-led government in its latest face-off with the US, which announced a new visa policy to ensure free and fair elections in Bangladesh, as the Prime Minister won public appreciation for her anti-US comments from a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson.

Winds of change

The announcement of new visa policy by US for Bangladeshis on 24 May that it would deny visas to individuals, from law enforcers to political leaders, believed to be responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh has been effective to contain the spread of violence.

Even Jamaat-e-Islami was permitted by the police to hold a rally in Dhaka on 10 June after a decade. 

It was assumed that the new visa policy had an impact on changing the government's policy toward Jamaat which sparked speculation that the ruling party reached an "understanding" with the Islamic party ahead of the polls.

Just a week before the announcement, Bangladesh politics was showing signs of escalation of violence as some violent incidents took place on the street.

The good thing is no major incident of violence centering political programmes took place in June.

But the ruling and the opposition camps remain stuck to their guns.