The Bay of Bengal is likely to give birth to this season's (April – November) first low pressure on May 1.
The low pressure area may develop into a depression, and probably to a cyclonic storm later, bypassing India's Odisha, according to Odisha TV.
The models developed by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune and US-Based Global Forecast System (GFS) are forecasting that the system will move away from the Indian coast and head towards the border of Myanmar and Bangladesh.
Regarding the forecast, Dr Md Abul Kalam Mallik, meteorologist at the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, said, "A low pressure area may be formed over Andaman sea and its adjacent area in May. And it may further intensify."
However, the meteorologist declined to comment whether the cyclone could hit Bangladesh, saying, "It is not clear yet how strong the low pressure would be."
The US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences' (NOAA) Global Forecast System (GFS) predicts the same - "A low pressure area will be formed to the south east of Andaman and Nicobar islands on April 30. The system will move near Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 1".
As cyclones always take a north direction, thus the GFS predicts, the system will cross the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 2 and emerge in the Andaman sea only to head towards Myanmar. The system is predicted to make land fall in Myanmar on May 3 – the day when Cyclone Fani hit Odisha coast last year.
However, as per the NOAA- GFS model, Odisha will be witnessing heavy rainfall on May 2.