Impeachment not a deathblow to Trump re-election bid

Should US President Donald Trump survive the trial in senate, he will still have 11 months to secure re-election and recover from the blow that impeachment has dealt to his presidency.

So far, no president has been impeached and gone on to win an election. President Andrew Johnson, impeached in 1868, had failed to secure party nomination, while Bill Clinton bowed out after his second term ended in 2000.

However, impeachment does not guarantee a slump in support. Clinton, impeached for lying under oath about his affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky, actually saw his approval rating increase after impeachment.

The Gallup poll, conducted from December 2 to 15 this year, shows that Trump's approval rating among voters is on the rise – standing at 45 percent. Earlier in October, his approval rating was 39 percent.

According to the same poll, only 46 percent of Americans think Trump should be removed from office, down by 6 percentage points from a previous poll.

On the other hand, a survey by The Wall Street Journal and NBC News shows 48 percent of people feel Trump should be removed from office while another 48 percent support him.

Republicans claimed that impeachment has been a fundraising boon for Trump's presidential campaign, as his supporters rally around their embattled president.

Democrats counter that this vote will be a black mark on the president's name that voters will find impossible to ignore when casting their ballots.

Following impeachment, Donald Trump tweeted, in all capital letters, "SUCH ATROCIOUS LIES BY THE RADICAL LEFT, DO NOTHING DEMOCRATS. THIS IS AN ASSAULT ON AMERICA, AND AN ASSAULT ON THE REPUBLICAN PARTY!!!!"

What happens next?

A president who has been impeached by the House can still serve as president.

Ultimately, the decision to oust Trump from office lies in the hands of the US Senate. Unlike in the House of Representatives, where a simple majority vote was enough to pass impeachment, two-thirds of senators will need to vote to remove Donald Trump.

That means 67 of the 100 senators must back the move. With only 47 Democrats or independents in the upper house of Congress, 20 Republicans would have to support removal – which looks highly unlikely.

Not one of the 53 Republican senators has publicly said they will support removal. Some of those who have remained neutral in public, such as Utah senator and former presidential candidate Mitt Romney, have been hosted in the White House in recent weeks, reports The Telegraph.

However, opposition to impeachment among Republican voters is fierce, with nine in 10 being against removing Trump in some polls, suggesting Republican senators will hesitate, fearing a backlash from party supporters in their home states.

Democrats are not safe either as those senators and representatives seeking re-election in pro-Trump regions could face backlash for actions against the sitting US president.

Trump critics and opponents will thus have to find other means to defeat him in November 3, 2020.

How does a Senate trial work?

The US Constitution only says that the Senate has to hold a trial, with the senators sitting as jurors, House lawmakers serving as prosecutors (known as managers), and the chief justice of the United States presiding over it.

Senators must take a public vote, and two-thirds of those present must agree on whether to convict the president and thus remove him from office.

However, the Constitution does not lay out exactly how to hold a trial.

Whether to call witnesses and what kind of evidence to admit and how long to make the trial is up to the senators themselves to decide.

The only modern guide available is the Clinton impeachment trial, which allowed no new evidence and only taped witness testimony of key witnesses. It was largely considered a successful example of bipartisan cooperation, as Republicans worked with Democrats to put together as fair a trial as possible.

This time, however, the case is different.

Stephen Collinson of CNN writes that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's "troops have already vowed not to serve as impartial jurors."

So Trump, even at the very moment the House impeached him, was publicly shrugging off the historic stain and instead leveraging his 2020 campaign in a quest for revenge, he opined.

But still, majority of senators need to agree on the rules for the impeachment trial. Mitch McConnell and Senate Minority Leader Charles E Schumer will probably try to come to a compromise beforehand on what witnesses to call to avoid a big, dramatic battle during the trial.

But they have vastly different views on how to do this, reports The Washington Post.

Schumer has said he wants people close to the president during the period scrutinised in the impeachment inquiry, such as Mick Mulvaney, acting chief of staff to Donald Trump, or former national security adviser John Bolton, to testify.

The Washington Post has reported McConnell wants no witnesses at all. Republicans are also feeling pressured by Trump, who appears ready to use the Senate trial to attack his political opponents and try to undermine his impeachment.

Despite Republicans having control over the trial, some House Democrats are trying to influence what happens, reports The Washington Post journalist Mike DeBonis.

As many as three dozen Democrats want to hold back the impeachment articles from going to the Senate immediately, which could delay the trial Trump so badly wants to clear his name.

Minutes after the impeachment vote on Wednesday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters she would not be naming House managers until she saw the parameters of the Senate trial and was assured it was fair, strongly suggesting that she believes a fair trial includes witnesses.

Assuming they get the articles without delay, senators will come to an agreement on a start date for a trial, which is expected to be in January.

During the trial, the US president can choose his own lawyers, and they can cross-examine witnesses. The chief justice can overrule something that happens in the trial that he feels is out of line with the rules, but senators can overrule him with a vote.

If Trump is convicted on even one count, the Constitution says he has to be removed from office.

Senators could take yet another vote to prevent him from running for office ever again, which might completely change the 2020 election scenario. However, that seems highly unlikely as Republicans have promised to protect their president.