How will the next elections look if it is held sans the AL?
Only a free and fair election can determine if that dominance by AL and BNP remains intact, or if any new political force will replace the AL in the next elections
In terms of its participation and win in parliamentary elections, Awami League's record looks strong in comparison to its archrival BNP, as well as all others.
Out of 12 elections held since the independence of Bangladesh, it joined a record 10 times and won six of them. The AL boycotted only two elections, half as many as the BNP boycotted. The latter also won three of the eight elections it contested.
The records tell us everything about the AL. It is an election-centric political party that even joined two parliamentary elections held under the martial law regimes - in 1979 and 1986 – to, as party leaders at the time explained, reorganise the party after the fall of the Sheikh Mujib regime in 1975.
Except for the first and second parliamentary elections held in 1973 and 1979, Sheikh Hasina has led the AL in all other elections, ever since she took helm of the party on her return home from life in exile.
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More than four decades down the line, it is none other than the AL, under the leadership of Hasina - who resigned and fled the country and took refuge in India on 5 August following an uprising – that is now facing risk of being disqualified from contesting the next elections.
The party, which was established in 1949 and fought for people's political and economic rights for more than two decades during the Pakistan era, is facing a reality it has never seen before.
The AL has been accused of committing crimes against humanity and genocide during the student-people uprising that toppled the Hasina regime she built on the wreckage of people's political and economic rights.
The advisory council of the interim government on 5 September, which marked a month of Hasina's ouster from power, decided that the "fascist Awami League will not get any opportunity to exercise political activities until its trial is completed."
The interim government has moved to amend the International Crimes Tribunal Act to introduce a provision to ban a political party for up to 10 years if found guilty under this law.
If it is banned, the party will not be allowed to contest the next parliamentary elections to be held after a consensus on massive reforms, to be drafted by the Muhammad Yunus led interim government.
What may happen in an election sans AL?
How will the next election look if the AL is banned and not allowed to join the election? What will the voters, who voted for AL for decades, do if the AL is not in the race?
In the previous four elections held since 1991 under non-partisan caretaker governments and widely recognised as free and fair elections, the AL and its archrival BNP each won two of them. BNP won 1991 and 2001 while the AL won in 1996 and 2008.
No other political party came close to the election performance of either AL or BNP in terms of number of votes and seats.
Jatiya Party and Jamaat-e-Islami could never emerge as a potential threat to either AL or BNP. Jatiya Party stood third while Jamaat was always in fourth.
After the fall of autocratic rule of Ershad in 1990, Jatiya Party enjoyed the taste of power thanks to the AL, while Jamaat, once in 2001, formed an alliance with the BNP.
"Neither should the Awami League be barred from participating in the upcoming national elections nor banned as a fascist political party, as both actions would undermine democratic practices."
If AL, one of the two major contenders for power, remains absent in the race, the race is supposed to be one-sided in favour of the BNP, at least theoretically.
In the four free and fair elections, AL contested alone in the June 1996 and 2001 elections, and bagged 37.44% and 40.13% of the votes cast in those two elections respectively.
Its rival BNP contested alone in 1991 and 1996 elections and bagged 30.81% and 33.60% of the votes cast in the two elections respectively.
One thing common in both parties' election performance is that the percentage point of votes increased in subsequent elections, compared to the earlier one that took them to power.
AL won the 1996 election and lost in 2001. BNP won in 1991, but lost in 1996. Both parties saw their share of vote increase in the elections they lost.
Of the two other elections—2001 and 2008—won by BNP and AL respectively, they formed alliances with others. In the 2001 election, BNP formed an alliance with Jamaat, a faction of Jatiya Party and Islami Oikya Jote.
AL formed an alliance with Jatiya Party and some other parties, such as Workers Party and Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal, in the 2008 election.
Both AL and BNP left some seats for the partners in the two elections. In the other seats where AL and BNP candidates contested, they received votes from the vote bank of their alliance partners.
The real strength of the two parties were reflected in the elections they contested without forming an alliance.
If those results are taken into consideration, the AL has a vote bank of roughly 37% to 40% voters, going by their 1996 and 2001 elections performance. Its archrival BNP bagged 30.81% and 33.60% of votes cast in 1991 and 1996 elections respectively.
The data shows the two parties together hold more than 70% of the votes.
Jatiya Party and Jamaat-e-Islami together bagged more than 25% of the votes in the 1996 elections, which was their highest.
Some other small parties share chunks of the remaining pie.
If the AL is not allowed to contest in the next elections, its leaders can however join the election as independent candidates if they do not form a new party.
So in absence of AL, the next election may see the rise of swing votes -a swing voter or floating voter is a voter who may not be affiliated with a particular political party.
A Samakal report on 30 September said the anti-discrimination movement leaders who spearheaded the protests that toppled Hasina regime are working to form a new political party in a bid to prevent "rehabilitation" of the AL in politics.
The national citizens' committee unveiled by anti-discrimination movement leaders in early September announced that it would work towards realising a political settlement among the various stakeholders and will remain committed to eradicating fascism in all its forms.
Leaders of the 55-member citizens' committee formally did not acknowledge the move to form a political party, but they are working to this end, claimed the Samakal report.
The prevailing situation however offers Jamaat-e-Islami hopes to dream big, and it has already appeared as a key challenger to BNP who dissolved the alliance with Jamaat after the 2018 elections.
Leaders of Jamaat have been demanding the trial of Hasina and others to "free the country and the nation from the culture of impunity, by identifying the perpetrators of genocide, through holding international investigations and ensuring exemplary punishment of the mass murderers."
"In the last 15 and half years of misrule of the previous government, we were not allowed to go on the streets; we couldn't even launch a protest against its unspeakable oppression and torture . . . the deposed government committed blatant genocide due to its lust for power," Jamaat Amir Shafiqur Rahman told the party's Shura committee meeting at Al-Falah Auditorium in Moghbazar on 5 September.
According to media reports, Jamaat is working to rally all Islamist parties under one umbrella ahead of the next polls.
Jatiya Party seems not able to take the advantage of the current situation as its dubious role as main opposition in parliament since 2014 has been mired in controversy and the party has been dubbed by many as the 'B' team of AL.
New Muslim League?
In the last 10 years, many AL ministers and leaders predicted a bleak future for BNP, concluding that Khaleda Zia' party would vanish like the Muslim League, once a ruling party of Pakistan that now exists only on paper.
BNP boycotted the 2014 elections and was forced to face a humiliating defeat in the 2018 elections. It boycotted the January 2024 elections too. All the three elections held under the Hasina government were neither fair nor free. Hasina's AL won more than two-third seats by manipulating the polls and abusing the administration.
But Hasina could not survive after the January 2024 elections as she was forced to resign in less than seven months.
On the other hand, BNP now appears unrivalled as the entire leadership of the AL disappeared from public life after the fall of the Hasina regime.
In today's political landscape, BNP faces near to zero risk to its prospect of return to power by winning the next elections.
But it would not be wise to borrow AL leaders' 'wisdom' in predicting the future of Hasina's party and concluding that AL will vanish like the Muslim League.
As discussed above, the results of the four elections held under non -partisan administration indicate the extent to which the two parties dominate politics.
Only a free and fair election can determine if that dominance by AL and BNP remains intact, or if any new political force will replace the AL in the next elections.
Yet, nothing can be predicted for sure, as many events may shape and reshape the political landscape in the coming days before the next elections.
What BNP's Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir said is noteworthy. In an interview with UNB, he said he believes that "neither should the Awami League be barred from participating in the upcoming national elections nor banned as a fascist political party, as both actions would undermine democratic practices."
"Why should the Awami League be excluded from the polls if we truly want democracy? If an old political party like Awami League wants to participate in the polls, people should have the chance to determine their fate," Fakhrul said, expressing his disagreement with those advocating for barring the AL from the upcoming national elections.
He expressed scepticism about the AL's prospects for a strong comeback in the political landscape, asserting that the party has become politically bankrupt and increasingly isolated from the public and younger generations due to its anti-people activities and heavy reliance on state forces and bureaucracy during its time in power.
It took the AL 21 years to return to power in 1996 after the overthrow of the Mujib regime.
AL has tried twice to establish one party rule in the last five decades of Bangladesh. The consequences of the move were disastrous both times.
The latest attempts by Sheikh Hasina, daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman who established one-party rule banning all other parties in 1975, put the party at risk of being banned for the first time in its history.
In both tragic occasions the governments formed by Mujib in 1975 and his daughter in 2024 could not survive more than six months. Both the governments were formed in January and ended in August, which appears to be the cruellest month for AL.
