Can Israel stand alone on a pile of debris?

While the genocide in Gaza continues, a new genocide has begun in Lebanon where at least  720 people have been killed; and Hezbollah has been crippled by the assassination of its long-time leader, Hasan Nasrallah on a large-scale Israeli airstrike in a densely populated neighbourhood in Beirut on 27 September. 

This came at the heels of a massive country-wide pager explosion detonated by Israel in Lebanon on 17 and 18 September killing at least 42 people. 

Hasan Nasrallah's killing marks a critical moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics. He was more than just a leader for Hezbollah rather a symbol of the resistance against Israel. His death raised pressing questions about the future of Hezbollah, Iran's role and the broader balance of power in the region. 

It is perhaps more important than the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on 31 July in Tehran. Now, the question is — What happens next?

Hezbollah's retaliation could be significant. However, their options are likely constrained by the loss of Nasrallah. The group can launch a missile barrage deep into Israeli territory, overwhelming the Iron Dome and causing widespread damage. 

Beyond conventional military responses, Hezbollah could resort to asymmetric tactics such as guerrilla warfare or cyber-attacks. It also has a global network of sleeper cells, raising the possibility of international retaliation

Such a response would serve two purposes: to avenge Nasrallah's death and to reaffirm Hezbollah's relevance as a key force in the region. The group could also resort to asymmetric tactics, such as cyber-attacks or targeting Israeli interests abroad. 

Iran, on the other hand, faces a critical decision. 

While Iranian officials have vowed retaliation, Tehran has yet to demonstrate a clear response. Iran has historically relied on proxy forces like Hezbollah to strike Israel without becoming directly involved in full-scale military conflict. However, Nasrallah's assassination, coupled with the earlier death of Ismail Haniyeh, presents a significant setback for Iran's regional strategy. 
 

Is Iran on the back foot after losing Haniyeh and Nasrallah?

Iran has called for an urgent meeting with the UN Security Council following the killing of Hassan Nasrallah.

Since the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani in 2020, Iran has been only facing setbacks. Its 'Axis of Resistance' – the once vaunted chain of proxies stretching to the very edge of Israel – is now being challenged; and it has been able to do little to stop the Gazan genocide. 

Some even cast doubts on the death of its former president Ebrahim Raisi in a mysterious helicopter crash in May. 

These losses expose vulnerabilities in Iran's defence mechanisms and raise questions about its capacity to protect its allies. If your sworn enemy can kill one of your key allies in a safe house in your capital, then you are doing something very wrong. 

Despite Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's promises of vengeance (which never came), Iran's current restraint has exposed internal challenges. Economic struggles, political pressure and a desire to avoid direct military confrontation with Israel and the United States have pushed Tehran into a defensive posture. 

Meanwhile, the loss of two central figures in the Axis of Resistance in such quick succession has further fragmented Iran's regional alliances, compromising its ability to coordinate effective military action through its proxies. 

While Tehran might eventually support Hezbollah in retaliating, it appears unlikely that Iran will directly confront Israel at this stage. The economic and political consequences of an all-out war are too great, and Iran's leaders may be playing a waiting game, looking for a more favourable time to strike. 

And, frankly, a direct military confrontation is just never the Iranian way of vengeance. The Iranian theocracy prefers a long game; but this time, the game has been dragged for too long perhaps. 

Iran's inaction has not gone unnoticed by its allies and opponents alike. Among its allies—particularly Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis—there is growing concern about Tehran's commitment to the Axis of Resistance strategy. Hezbollah's rank and file, in particular, may see Iran's restraint as a sign of weakness, potentially undermining morale

On the other hand, Iran's opponents, including Israel and Saudi Arabia, may view Tehran's hesitance as an opportunity to press further. Israeli officials, in particular, may feel emboldened to strike more Iranian assets in Syria or Iraq, confident that Iran will not retaliate with full force.

Hezbollah and Hamas depend heavily on Iranian military and financial support but they also need to believe that Iran will stand by them during crises. If Tehran continues to avoid direct action, some groups may begin seeking new patrons or adopting more independent strategies, weakening Iran's influence. 

But this raises the question of growing Russian or Chinese influence in the region. 

As US-led talks fail to deliver a ceasefire in Gaza and civilian deaths continue to rapidly rise, this is the perfect time to puncture narratives for Russia and China in and around Western—and, more specifically US-led—global power and security blueprints.

Can Israel stand alone on a pile of debris?

From an Israeli perspective, the assassinations of both Haniyeh and Nasrallah are seen as significant military victories. Even their pager attack, which South China Morning Post claims as 'acts of terrorism' is lauded by the West as tactical brilliance.  

But there is one thing that has been proven over the past weeks. Israel's ability to strike deep within enemy territories, reaffirming its dominance in intelligence gathering and military operations, and the intention of securing strategic victories – even at the cost of the lives of innocent people – is unmistakably intact. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has benefited from a domestic popularity boost as these successes are perceived as victories over long-standing adversaries. He needs the war, and he will keep it going, as once it is over, he will have to answer for his inability to rescue hostages — among other things predating 7 October 2023. 

Israel has no intention of pausing its military campaign for the 21-day ceasefire proposed by 12 nations, including its closest ally, the US. 

However, while Israel has gained a tactical advantage in the short term, long-term stability in the region remains uncertain. Hezbollah, despite the loss of Nasrallah, retains substantial military capabilities. Should Israel overplay its hand with further strikes, it risks provoking broader regional escalation that could end poorly. 

Also, the Israelis have lost face worldwide as seen by diplomats walking out on his speech at the UN to protest against the devastating war on Gaza and the latest attacks on Lebanon on 27 September. 

42,000 Palestinians have been killed, and counting. This does not include those buried under the rubble or the deaths from starvation and disease — directly caused by the Israeli blockade of Gaza. 

It looks like Israel has won a pyrrhic victory in Gaza. 

Will the Houthis be the primary Iranian proxy force in the region?

Coincidentally, the Houthis in Yemen may rise as Iran's primary proxy force. The Houthis have already demonstrated significant military capabilities by striking targets in Israel and Saudi Arabia. 

On 17 September, their hypersonic missile hit Tel Aviv and central Israel. They still hold control over the strategically important Yemen, the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.  

As Hezbollah faces internal disarray following Nasrallah's death, Iran may now focus on enhancing its support for the Houthis. This could position them as a more reliable partner in Iran's broader strategy to counterbalance Israeli and Saudi influence in the region. 

Can Israel survive a multifront conflict?

Israel's ability to survive another war depends largely on the nature of the conflict and the level of international involvement. Israel's advanced defence systems, such as the Iron Dome, provide substantial protection against missile attacks. However, experts caution that these systems could be vulnerable to a "swarm" attack—coordinated missile launches from Hezbollah that overwhelm Israel's defences. 

A prolonged war on multiple fronts—including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and potentially Iran itself—would stretch Israel's military resources. While Israel has shown it can win in short, intense conflicts, a longer regional war could push its defence capabilities and societal resilience to the limit

Though Israel has successfully neutralized key figures like Haniyeh and Nasrallah, the cost of a full-scale war would be devastating. And lest we forget, the US election is due in less than 40 days. 

So, while Israel could likely survive a multifront conflict, it would do so at a significant cost. But so far, it seems that the genocide will rage on.