Production shock awaits Aman for costly diesel, record low rainfall
The Met office says the country’s July rainfall was 57.6% lower than normal, which is a record in 42 years
Md Milon Mia, a farmer from the Barail area of Dinajpur sadar upazila, cultivated Aman paddy in two bighas of land at the end of July. There was no rain at that time and he employed electric pumps for irrigation. Although there was some rain in August, he continued to run the pumps as the water wasn't enough to keep the paddy shoots alive.
"There is no alternative to irrigation for a good harvest of Aman," he said. "Meanwhile, the prices of diesel and fertiliser have increased," he added.
The clouds in the sky did not promise any rain for the parched paddy fields.
On 15 May, the United Nations released its "Global Land Outlook" report ahead of the UN Desertification and Drought Day. It identified 23 countries that had been facing drought emergencies in the past two years (2020-22), although Bangladesh's name did not show up on the list.
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Now, however, the fate of the agrarian country, which is dependent on the monsoon rains for a successful harvest season, is about to change.
As Senegal herders march for months to find grass, two US states brace for water cuts, drought ravages through India, China and Pakistan, Bangladesh, too, finds itself on the precipice of a climate disaster, which comes on the heels of already debilitating global supply crises.
The production of rice, a staple in the country's diet, is set to fall by 45 lakh tonnes in the current Aman season amid record low rainfalls and extreme hot weather.
Around 30% of the targeted lands remain uncultivated due to these climatic factors.
According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and the Ministry of Agriculture data, last year, around 1.5 crore tonnes of rice was produced in this season. This year, even a crore would be a lucky yield.
Farmers say low rainfall has forced many to rely on irrigation pumps for Aman cultivation, but the already costly method has been hit hard by the diesel price hike.
Furthermore, the increased price of fertiliser has also put an additional strain on rice farmers.
According to the Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC), more than four lakh irrigation pumps have been used across the country for Aman cultivation this season, which is a record.
Dhirendra Chandra Debnath, member director (minor irrigation) of BADC, said, "Farmers are using irrigation pumps across the country due to record low rainfall and drought this year."
So many irrigation pumps have never been used in the Aman season before, he added.
Recently, Agriculture Minister Md Abdur Razzak, at an event of the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council, said the production of Aman paddy this year is facing major challenges including high diesel prices, high cost of fertilisers, lowest rainfall in 40-42 years, and power cuts.
He said due to low rainfall, the government is trying to provide uninterrupted electricity supply to rural areas across the country at least from midnight to dawn for irrigation in the Aman fields.
The reduced rainfall has also hurt already depleting groundwater resources.
Experts say the groundwater hasn't been replenished due to the less rainfall, while it was also used even during the monsoon season in some parts of the country. These may create problems in the next Boro season, which is completely dependent on irrigation.
Dr Anwar Zahid, director, Directorate of Ground Water Hydrology, Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), said, "The groundwater level is not being replenished properly due to low rainfall this monsoon. If the ground water level is not recharged, the water level will fall further. This could create a shortage of water during the dry season."
According to the BADC, about 16 lakh irrigation pumps are used during the dry season for Boro cultivation each year.
About 80% of these are diesel-powered and the rest are powered by electricity. As a record number of pumps are being used in the Aman season, this may create water shortages during the dry season.
According to a recent report by the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC), if the adverse effects of climate change, salinity in soil, shortage of water for irrigation continues, rice production could be 36 lakh tonnes less than the demand by 2030.
Although the final production figures have not been published yet, the agriculture ministry claimed that in the last Boro season around 2.11 crore tonnes of rice was produced. Food Minister Sadhan Chandra Majumder recently said the actual production of rice in the Boro season last year could be less than two crore tonnes.
According to the study, there is an annual demand of 3.5 crore tonnes of rice in the country.
Impacts of record low rainfall
Farmers said due to the recent fuel price hike in the country, diesel and fertiliser costs have increased by 42% and 37.5% respectively.
As per the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), around 23kg of urea fertiliser is required per bigha Aman cultivation.
Bangladesh Meteorological Department data says that the amount of rainfall in the country in July was 57.6% lower than normal, which is a record in 42 years.
Dr Md Abdul Mannan, meteorologist, Bangladesh Meteorological Department told TBS, "July recorded the lowest rainfall in 42 years. The same situation continued in August. In this month [till 24 August], the country had 47% less rain than usual."
According to the meteorological department, in August, amount of rainfall shrunk by 38% in Dhaka, 31% in Mymensingh, 58% in Chattogram, 36% in Sylhet, 47% in Rajshahi, 66% in Rangpur, 32% in Khulna and 18% in Barisal.
Researchers say ground water level is going down drastically in different parts of the country including Dhaka, Rangpur, Dinajpur, Rajshahi, Bogura, and Joypurhat. It would become hard to get water for irrigation in these areas during the dry season.
