Infection rate drops with fewer tests

The infection rate has dropped over the last one week, accompanied by below-50 daily death counts, but experts say the data does not reflect the virus transmission on the ground.

The number of samples tested daily has plummeted to about 3,000 over the Eid vacation from more than 30,000 in the middle of April. Before Eid, the figure was hovering around 15,000.

The decline in Covid tests is the reason why less and less people are diagnosed with Covid-19.

Bangladesh reported 25 deaths and 363 new cases of infection in 24 hours until Sunday 8:00am, according to the Directorate General of Health Services. The infection rate was 6.69% against 5,430 samples tested across the country.

The Eid rush to village homes and then Dhaka-bound passengers after the vacation may lead to an escalation of infection transmission. Experts fear a third wave is imminent and it may strike the country in the next 15 days.

Prof Nazrul Islam, noted virologist and member of the National Technical Advisory Committee on Covid-19, said the information about Covid infection released by the health directorate on a daily basis was unreliable for the fewer number of samples tested. 

The public movement before and after Eid will cause another wave of rising infections and deaths in two weeks. The Indian variant of the coronavirus, which has been deemed by the World Health Organisation as a "variant of concern" will only add to the gravity of the situation, Nazrul said. 

Though the border with India is closed, as many as 2,802 people entered Bangladesh through the Benapole border in Jessore since 26 April, according to the Jessore deputy commissioner's office. 

Another 600 people entered through Akhaura land port during the period. 

Prof Nazrul insisted on increasing Covid tests. If any of those returning from India tests positive, he should be isolated and his sample should be subjected to genome sequencing to find the strain that has infected him, the virologist said.

Amid the decrease in official Covid cases and deaths, hospital admissions have been rising again for the last two days, doctors said. 

Forhad Uddin Hasan Chowdhury, registrar at the medicine department of Dhaka Medical College, said, "Many patients are coming with symptoms. If the trend continues, hospitals will be crowded again in a week". 

The ongoing lockdown will continue until 23 May to contain the spread of infection. 

Forhad said the movement restriction was a temporary measure to tackle infections, and that more people should be vaccinated quickly as a long-term measure to control the virus.

The neighbouring India is still grappling with surges in infections for the new, more contagious variant, giving rise to a further spread of the disease in Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

India's second wave has left much of its population breathless and its healthcare system in ashes. There are dire shortages of oxygen, medicine, and hospital beds, while funeral pyres of the dead burn endlessly. 

"This is not a second wave in India as much as it is a whole new pandemic," said Zulfiqar Bhutta, the founding director of the Institute for Global Health & Development at Aga Khan University in Karachi.

This is ringing alarm bells in Pakistan. The country recorded 6,127 infections on 17 April, the highest figure since June 2020. 

In Nepal, there is an acute shortage of oxygen supply. Hospitals have run out of intensive care beds and ventilators, reports The Kathmandu Post. 

Five people suffocated in a Nepal hospital after oxygen ran out this week. Daily new cases have risen 60-fold since 1 April and nearly a thousand people have died in the past 10 days.

A rise in cases of the Indian coronavirus variant could "pose serious disruption" to Britain's reopening plans, Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned on Friday.

Cases of the Indian variant have nearly tripled in the past week, Public Health England figures show.

Bangladesh is likely to face a fate similar to India or Nepal because the populations share biological and cultural characteristics, said Shafiun Shimul, an associate professor at the University of Dhaka and a team member of CoMo (Covid-19 Modelling) Consortium at the University of Oxford.

With the new figures, the country's Covid-19 death toll has reached 12,149 and the number of cases 7,80,159.

The infection transmission is in control because of some preventive measures. "Those may have delayed the next wave for a month. It may strike us in July, instead of June."

Now, serosurveillance is necessary to find out the percentage of people having antibodies against Covid-19  

"If research results show that a majority of the population have developed antibodies in them, the government can allow all businesses to open," he said, adding that people in that case can move around abiding by health safety guidelines.