Upsetting a calm before oncoming political storm

The litmus test has begun and there are stirrings of starting the same loop of the election cycle: violence answered by violence.

A video of Rajshahi district BNP convener Abu Sayeed Chand went viral, where he reportedly threatened the prime minister with death at a rally in Rajshahi on Friday.

On Monday, Mustafizur Rahaman Chowdhury, member of parliament from Chattogram-16 (Banshkhali) constituency, came into the limelight for openly carrying a firearm while leading a rally.

On Tuesday, while the BNP's Rajshahi office was surrounded by law enforcers to "avert any untoward incident", BNP leaders and activists clashed with police in Dhaka's Science Lab area during an anti-government rally.

With national elections less than a year away, violence centring on politics seems to be growing.

After Eid-ul-Fitr, police and BNP activists clashed in Khulna, Patuakhali and other districts and arrests were made.

No solution to the crisis is in sight. There has been no signs of a dialogue between the two major parties – the Awami League repeatedly rejecting the BNP's demand for a caretaker government while the BNP is also firm in their demand for one.

An 'imminent political storm'

The stalemate between the parties stems from one contentious issue: holding elections under a polls-time caretaker government.

In 2011, the AL-led government abolished the caretaker governmen t through the passage of the 15th amendment to the constitution with its majority in Parliament.

The move was met with criticism from the BNP, which even boycotted the 2014 elections. Threats of boycotting this election also loom large. 

At a press conference on Sunday, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir said, "There will be no election under this government…election under caretaker government is our only demand.

Fakhrul also warned that a political storm was imminent. "This government will leave in that storm," he said.

"The caretaker government will not return. No matter whatever efforts you make, the government will stick to the constitution," Awami League General Secretary Obaidul Quader said at a book launching event at the Jatiya Press Club in February.

Meantime, the BNP has announced rallies to press its demand, the AL has declared counter programmes. The timing of the programmes also meant street confrontations between the parties.

Oftentimes, the BNP's announced programmes are also met with wide-ranging transport strikes, which bring day-to-day life to a standstill.

In the meantime, the rhetoric has also become increasingly hard-line.

Awami League General Secretary Obaidul Quader recently claimed that the BNP was plotting to kill the prime minister.

He announced that the AL would hold counter rallies each time and that the BNP must be "resisted all over the country, not just through peace rallies".

 Dhaka Metropolitan North Awami League General Secretary SM Mannan Kochi also said the BNP's attempts at "sabotage" would be met with "resistance". 

Do or die?

Sources inside the BNP say the party is gearing up for a "do or die" movement this time around.

However, after remaining out of power for 17 years it still looks too weak to gear up such a movement.

The party has planned 13 programmes for only Dhaka this month.

The party is also increasingly gathering more people for its rallies, unlike in previous years.

 The high command of the BNP has instructed the responsible leaders of the party to strengthen the movement in the capital.

Preparations are underway for the movements.

In the meantime, apart from sharing the responsibilities of the central leaders, Tarique Rahman, current acting chairman of the party and heir apparent, has also been holding virtual meetings with top leaders.

Sources say several leaders also met Tarique in London and received instructions on how the movement should be coordinated.

Insiders say the party has chalked out a number of direct action programmes, including hartals, blockades and even a siege of top government buildings in the final stages of the movement.

Meanwhile, law enforcement agencies are prepping for a harder line, according to police sources. 

Police to form 'crisis response teams' ahead of national polls

All police units, including the district police, have been asked to form a crisis response team (CRT) ahead of the 12th national parliamentary election to prevent any kind of crime, illegal activities and unwarranted incidents.

The Dhaka Metropolitan Police, the largest unit of Bangladesh police, have already initiated the CRT's primary work, said sources who were present at the Quarterly Crime Conference held at the Rajarbagh Police Lines on Thursday.

TBS file photo

The team will be deployed on an emergency basis to thwart any vandalism of state property and threats to public lives and the national economy.

To face the challenges, Inspector General of Police Chowdhury Abdullah Al Mamun said, "Police will do everything possible to keep the law and order condition normal before the election. We are ready to thwart any plot that may worsen the law and order situation."