Climate change likely to shock Bangladesh’s economy severely: Report

Climate change is likely to shock Bangladesh's economy severely and halt its growth as well as threaten its safety and prosperity, said a UN body in its latest report.

Climate change-induced economic shocks, including reduced agricultural yields, damaged critical infrastructure, and increased commodity prices, could lead to financial instability in the country, said the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II in its report on Monday.

The report suggested that Bangladesh must focus on transformative and multi-sectoral actions to adapt to climate change.

The report said continued sea-level rise could force millions from their homes, threatening industry and agriculture because of climate change.

Part of the country would lose 31-40% of agricultural output this century to sea-level rise alone because of current carbon emission plans. A third of the country's power plants may need to be relocated over the next decade to avoid flooding from sea-level rise, according to the report.

The report further said Bangladesh is among the places that will experience intolerable heat and humidity unless carbon emissions are rapidly eliminated. If emissions continue to rise, parts of Bangladesh would exceed the threshold of heat and humidity in which humans can survive by the end of this century.

As a result of climate change and increasing demand for water, about 25% of people in Bangladesh will live with water scarcity by 2050, compared with about 10% now. Both the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins will also see increased flooding as a result.

The report projected that Bangladesh will be hit hard by the effects of climatic changes that happen within its border and elsewhere.

Dr Rawshan Ara Begum, one of the coordinating lead authors of the report, said, "The report reiterated that Bangladesh is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise with a projected loss of 2-9% in annual GDP, 1-2 million people displaced in the country's southern region and 12-17% decline in rice and 12-61% in wheat production."

"This will further worsen the country's current challenges, including extreme poverty, income inequality, economic and non-economic losses and damages and low adaptive capacity," she said.

She further said, "In Bangladesh, some communities, for example small and landless farm households, are already approaching soft limits to adapt to riverbank erosion. With further global warming of 1.5C, additional adaptation limits will emerge."

"To avoid increasing losses, urgent and accelerated actions and rapid, deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions is required to adapt to climate change," she said, adding that, "As a citizen of a vulnerable country, we expect that the global leaders will implement urgent, accelerated actions to adapt to climate change."

Md Arfanuzzaman, another of the authors of the IPCC report, said "The climate change impacts Bangladesh facing today will increase substantially in the coming years. It is very likely that most of our existing adaptive measures would be ineffective under both 1.5C and 2C warming conditions."

Climate change will hit international supply chains, markets, finance, and trade, reducing the availability of goods in Bangladesh, and increasing their price, as well as damaging markets for Bangladeshi exports.

"To reduce socio-economic and environmental vulnerability and build resilience, Bangladesh must focus on transformative and multi-sectoral adaptations," said Md Arfanuzzaman.

This report assesses a wide range of adaptation options across sectors and regions for societal choices to act and implement in the decades to come which in turn, will determine future pathways to be climate resilient.