65% Dhaka buildings to collapse if 6.9 magnitude earthquake occurs on Madhupur fault: Rajuk
Besides, if a 7.1 magnitude earthquake strikes along the Sylhet lineament, 40,935 to 3.14 lakh buildings (1.91% to 14.66%) in Dhaka could be damaged, found the study, conducted under Urban Resilience Project (URP).
Around 40.28% to 64.83% of the total buildings in Dhaka would collapse if a 6.9 magnitude earthquake hits the Madhupur fault in Tangail, according to a study by the Rajdhani Unnayan Kartripakkha (Rajuk).
Besides, if a 7.1 magnitude earthquake strikes along the Sylhet lineament, 40,935 to 3.14 lakh buildings (1.91% to 14.66%) in Dhaka could be damaged, found the study, conducted under Urban Resilience Project (URP).
Presenting the findings, Rajuk's Chief Engineer and Project Director Abdul Latif Helaly said there are over 21.47 lakh buildings in Dhaka under Rajuk area, of which 5.14 lakh are concrete buildings.
"We surveyed 3,252 buildings. Out of these, 42 buildings which are at high risk have been suggested to be completely demolished," said Helaly.
He warned that if a 6.9 magnitude earthquake strikes Dhaka along the Madhupur fault during the morning, it could result in the loss of 2.1-3.1 lakh lives.
If the earthquake were to occur in the afternoon, the casualties could range from 2.7-4 lakh, and during the night, it could be as high as 3.2-5 lakh lives lost.
During his keynote, Professor Mohsen Ghafory Ashtiany, leading the study, said if a 6.9 magnitude earthquake strikes on the Madhupur fault in Tangail, up to 49.6% of major roads and 59.4% of urban roads could collapse.
Besides, a staggering 96.22% of major bridges and 96.79% of urban bridges may collapse under such circumstances.
Evaluating the monetary loss, Ashtiany said there would be over $1 billion losses in transportation, $887 million in water and wastewater, and $27.1 million in electricity with the 6.9 magnitude quake in Madhupur.
Speaking at the event, Salman F Rahman, prime minister's private industry and investment advisor, said the government is focused on sustainable infrastructure. He mentioned Rajuk's collaboration with local and foreign experts to enhance earthquake resilience in the city.
"There has been no major earthquake for 125 years. Experts say a big earthquake could happen soon. So, the government is identifying the problems. This will be done as soon as possible," he added.
He also said new infrastructure development is encroaching on already limited open spaces, which could worsen post-earthquake disaster management. Moreover, construction quality control and adherence to building codes are becoming inadequate.
He proposed the establishment of a self-sustaining independent institute dedicated to earthquake disaster risk reduction, building fire safety design, and ensuring safe urban construction.
RAM Obaidul Muktadir Chowdhury, minister for Housing and Public Works, said the government is working to avoid disaster risk by overcoming existing weaknesses. "People should also be made aware of earthquake-related hazardous issues."
He said rapid urbanisation, insufficient construction control, and ethical lapses have made many district cities, including Dhaka and Chattogram, highly vulnerable.
Population growth and lax law enforcement have led to cities resembling open squatters. Current procedures for ensuring construction quality control, building codes, and standards are insufficient, said the minister.
He proposed addressing these issues through risk-sensitive land use planning and sustainable development policies to create resilient and safe cities.